Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
At the beginning of the new year 2025, the market seems to have initiated a gradual price recovery amidst fluctuations and declines.
Around 10 a.m. today, BTC prices briefly rose above $99,000; currently, it is around $98,800; ETH has rebounded from about $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL has also gradually risen from about $180 on January 1 to above $210. As Trump's inauguration date approaches, market sentiment is also gradually warming up. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize recent market views in this article for readers' reference.
Buying continues: There is a long-term presence of buying funds at the national, institutional, and corporate levels.
The price recovery naturally relies on the influx of buying; after experiencing the 'Christmas fluctuations,' the buying strength at the beginning of the new year still appears to be long-term and increasingly firm.
Data: The historical cumulative net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $35.909 billion.
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $111.46 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to total Bitcoin market cap) reaching 5.72%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion; the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $13.03 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to total Ethereum market cap) of 3%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $2.64 billion.
BTC Spot ETF Data
ETH Spot ETF Data
In addition, institutional reports have also shown confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF in 2025.
Steno Research: Expected net inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2025 will be $48 billion and $28.5 billion, respectively; BTC will rise to a minimum of $150,000.
Steno Research's recent report states that its bullish forecast for BTC and ETH prices reflects 'an unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment characterized by falling interest rates and improving liquidity, and historically strong performance after the Bitcoin halving.'
He also stated, 'Moreover, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and significant capital inflows into U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs further drive this trend.' Steno predicts that net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs will amount to $48 billion and $28.5 billion, respectively, in 2025. Additionally, the report states that DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025, far surpassing the approximately $180 billion peak in 2021.
Previously, Steno Research stated in a report that it expects Bitcoin's price to rise from about $94,000 to a minimum of $150,000 by 2025, while Ethereum's price is expected to more than double, rising from $3,400 to at least $8,000. Thus, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to the price trends of previous cycles, with altcoins becoming the focus.
El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the new year, bringing its total to approximately 6,009 BTC.
According to today's on-chain data, El Salvador has accumulated 5 BTC since the new year, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: Will continue to accumulate Bitcoin in 2025, currently holding over 40,000.
According to the CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, the company will continue to accumulate Bitcoin on its balance sheet in 2025.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, worth over $4 billion.
Deribit BTC block option purchase of $97,000 call option expiring on January 10, totaling 150 BTC.
According to Lin Chen, head of Deribit's Asia-Pacific business, the largest BTC block option today is: a user paid $559,000 to purchase a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10 (this Friday), totaling 150 BTC.
Standard Chartered: BTC prices will reach $200,000 in 2025, and MicroStrategy will buy more BTC.
Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin prices will double; he stated in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
In addition, he expects that institutional investment in Bitcoin will continue to maintain or exceed the pace of 2024 next year. The bank noted that since the beginning of this year, institutional purchases of Bitcoin have reached 683,000 coins, mainly bought through the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF and the software company and Bitcoin investment alternative MicroStrategy. Geoffrey Kendrick stated that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases in 2025 should reach or exceed the volume of 2024. He also added that due to the expected reforms by the soon-to-be-inaugurated Trump administration regarding regulations on digital currency investments by so-called 'traditional finance' (TradFi) companies, pension funds should also begin to incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios through the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF starting next year. Kendrick pointed out: 'Even a small allocation of $40 trillion within U.S. retirement funds would significantly boost Bitcoin prices. We would be more optimistic if Bitcoin is adopted faster by U.S. retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWF), or potential U.S. strategic reserve funds.'
In addition, major listed companies are still methodically carrying out their 'Bitcoin accumulation plans.'
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have increased its Bitcoin holdings.
Blockstream founder Adam Back stated: 'I believe MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchases, but must announce this to the market via an 8-K filing before or after normal trading hours on the stock market.'
Previously, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor released Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: In the past week, 11 listed companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated: 'According to HODL15 Capital statistics, since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement.'
Metaplanet plans to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by 2025.
As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the benefits of the 'Bitcoin reserve plan,' Metaplanet's buying will also continue.
The company's CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that the goal for this year is to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins by utilizing its 'most value-added capital market tools' to promote Bitcoin adoption in Japan and globally, and 'to expand Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.'
Gerovich stated: 'We are not just creating a company; we are driving a movement.'
Compared to the continuously growing buying pressure, entering 2025, the 'selling force' has also somewhat alleviated.
Selling pressure alleviates: Both exchange inflows and miner outflows are declining.
As a major source of selling pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows have long been seen as reliable indicators, and both have recently decreased significantly.
Since November 2024, BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure.
Since November 2024, Bitcoin exchange inflows (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC exchange inflows peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, following about two months of highly active exchange inflow activity. In December 2024, BTC exchange inflows decreased but remained substantial, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 per day.
The decrease in exchange inflows coincides with the decrease in miner outflows, indicating that selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has eased; they often sell their BTC holdings to cover operating expenses. Since last November, following the historic price surge of Bitcoin after Trump's election, miner outflows have been declining.
CryptoQuant data shows that outflows peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, at which time Bitcoin prices reached about $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, 5,748 BTC on January 2, and 2,133 BTC on January 3.
The macro and micro prediction game: Cautious optimists and highly optimistic factions each hold their ground.
As for the macro-level predictions for the cryptocurrency market and personal views at the micro-level, a cautious optimism coexists with high optimism. Some traders also believe that one should 'sell for profit in a timely manner and take profits on swings.'
Greeks.live: European and American users are gradually returning from their holidays, and market enthusiasm is rising.
On January 3, Greeks.live researcher Adam stated: '20,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.69 and a maximum pain point of $97,000, with a nominal value of $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.81 and a maximum pain point of $3,400, with a nominal value of $710 million. Today marks the first weekly options expiration of 2025, with a total of $2.6 billion in options expiring, and European and American users are gradually returning from their holidays, leading to an overall increase in market enthusiasm. However, the theme of this week remains adjustment, with significant market differentiation, and no sustained hotspots have emerged yet.
Later this month, Trump is set to officially take office as the new President of the United States, and market expectations for 2025 are very optimistic. However, the recent significant pullback in U.S. stocks has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market, and the interest rate meeting this month is highly likely to maintain the current rates without cuts, leaving the market with little more good news in the short term.
U.S. investment bank perspective: expects BTC market cap to reach a quarter of gold's value by the end of this year, BTC prices to break through $220,000.
U.S. investment bank HC Wainwright expects Bitcoin prices to reach $225,000 by the end of 2025, which means the Bitcoin market value will reach $4.5 trillion, about 25% of the gold market value.
Finance professor: Supportive regulation in the U.S. will boost BTC, and it is entirely possible for prices to reach $200,000.
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex in the UK, believes that a $200,000 Bitcoin is possible. Carol Alexander pointed out, 'I am more optimistic about 2025 than ever before,' adding that Bitcoin's price 'could easily reach $200,000, but there are no signs that volatility will decrease.' Alexander clarified that she does not actually own any Bitcoin. 'By next summer, I expect its trading price to fluctuate around $150,000, with a range of $50,000.' Supportive regulations in the U.S. will boost Bitcoin; however, the lack of regulation for cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to lead to volatility, as high-leverage trading will cause price fluctuations.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good track record in predicting Bitcoin prices; last year she predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, and indeed it did.
Mining industry professional: Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, but there may be occasional sharp pullbacks.
Youwei Yang, chief economist at cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM), predicts that Bitcoin's price will range between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, but he also remains cautious, believing that prices may experience pullbacks.
He pointed out: 'Bitcoin may experience significant upward momentum and occasional sharp pullbacks in 2025. During market shock moments, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain upward. Based on these dynamics, Bitcoin is predicted to peak between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, consistent with historical cycle patterns and the growing trend of mainstream institutions investing in cryptocurrencies.'
Ledn's chief investment officer: predicts BTC will hit $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year.
Cryptocurrency lending company Ledn's chief investment officer John Glover stated that Bitcoin could pull back to $89,000 before rebounding to reach $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
Glover stated that Bitcoin may pull back to $100,000 before surging to $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, a more conservative forecast than the $180,000 and $200,000 predictions from asset management companies VanEck and Bitwise.
Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations, potentially rising to $105,000 in January.
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin may rise to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts stated, 'We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors seek to deploy capital across a range of different asset classes. We forecast that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.'
On January 20, the inauguration of the elected U.S. President Donald Trump could become a significant catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new U.S. government include friendlier cryptocurrency regulatory policies and improved economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a price surge in cryptocurrencies. 'We expect the new U.S. government will bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not believe the inauguration itself will be a significant price growth event; rather, it will lay the groundwork for a smoother path for cryptocurrencies in the U.S.'
Placeholder partner: Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated: 'Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong and will soon rise again.'
Moreover, he also added that, similar to previous trends, the Meme coins in the past few weeks have also become a good indicator of increased risk appetite.
1confirmation founder: Countries are expected to attempt to adopt Microstrategy's strategy to accumulate Bitcoin.
Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated that we may soon see countries competing to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy:
- Issue government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.) - Use bonds to purchase cryptocurrencies - Repay loans on time according to the loan term
At the same time, he stated that the question is not whether countries will do this, but rather what kind of cryptocurrencies they will purchase, possibly starting with BTC, but the next will be ETH, and any currency that is sufficiently decentralized can participate, as the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Bearish sentiment and profit-taking: mature views from renowned research institutions and prominent traders.
Compared to the optimistic view on BTC, the market's perspective on ETH and altcoins is relatively rational; here we select some representative views for display.
10x Research: expects ETH's performance in 2025 to lag behind BTC once again, not optimistic about the Pectra upgrade.
Recently, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated in a market report: 'While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve a meaningful rebound in 2025. While we understand Ethereum's volatility, we still believe it remains a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH's performance in 2025 to lag behind BTC once again. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains very clear: 'avoid.'
Thielen stated that one of the most noteworthy indicators in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he pointed out that the one-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, declining by about 1% over the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen stated that the increase in unstaking seems 'logical,' and he believes that Ethereum lacks 'real demand' outside of staking.
He also mentioned that the Ethereum Duncan upgrade in March last year (which lowered the network's gas fees and allowed it to handle more transactions) was 'six months late,' missing the peak of the Meme coin surge, leading the market to turn towards 'more cost-effective' alternatives like Solana. He also expressed skepticism about the Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025, stating, 'Out of the 19 upgrades so far, only two have had a noticeable positive impact on ETH prices, and both occurred during Bitcoin bull markets.' He added, 'The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have fundamentally failed to bring any value.'
Senior trader: Trump's inauguration may become a key trigger for a resurgence of bullish momentum in the crypto market.
Senior cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently stated that significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market may not occur before Trump's inauguration on January 20. He speculated that this political event could become a key trigger for a resurgence of bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant before the inauguration, similar to market behaviors observed in previous election cycles. Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin often rises after a new U.S. president takes office. In 2021, shortly after President Biden's inauguration, Bitcoin rose by over 100%. Similarly, Bitcoin also experienced significant breakthroughs around the time of the 2017 inauguration.
Despite these observations, he also acknowledged that if the stock market (especially the S&P 500 index) continues to rise, his predictions may be overturned. He emphasized that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, indicating that sustained strength in the stock market could bring a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth noting that there are about two weeks until Trump's inauguration, and the market shows a surge in Trump-related concept coins.
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months.
On-chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data indicating: 'Over the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530.'
Odaily Planet Daily believes that this move may mean that more retail investors are exiting the market, further concentrating Bitcoin chip holding structures.
Trader Eugene: As the bull market enters its second half, a better strategy is to cash out frequently.
Renowned trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that, as we move into the second half of this cycle, the strategy to adopt should be to sell more frequently rather than holding long-term.
