Predicting the Fed's predictions is one thing, but you also have to predict the market's predictions and make corresponding operations and hedges, which is counterintuitive.

In plain terms, last Friday's rise means that tonight when the US stock market opens, if it continues to rise on Monday and Tuesday, be careful as the unemployment rate on Friday could give a worse-than-expected figure, which is greater than 4.2. Currently, the market expects it to be 4.2, with the previous value also at 4.2.

Of course, as long as the employment data looks good, even if the unemployment data doesn’t, it’s okay because the market might think, oh, you need to cut interest rates more. The previously mentioned two cuts no longer count...

If both data sets are not good, then there might be a brief speculation on recession expectations. But with the election getting closer, it’s not too bad.

If the US stock market opens tonight and starts to fall on Monday and Tuesday, then the unemployment rate on Friday should likely show good data. When good data comes out, it will definitely quickly recover the previous losses.

But how the market sentiment will develop on Monday and Tuesday, let’s wait and see. This will test how low the bottom that friends previously bought is; otherwise, it could be quite frustrating.