The current market is actually accumulating energy. Temporary consolidation is not necessarily a bad thing. It may be the calm before the storm. Bitcoin has been in the range of 96,000 to 100,000 in the past few days, with almost no movement. In the currency circle, fluctuations of about 5% are common. Now the bulls and bears are in a stalemate, and no one is willing to give in first. There are continuous good news, and market confidence is relatively stable. It is likely that they are looking for support points for the previous sharp rise.
In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to remain in this price range. Let's talk about today's BTC technical analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour and daily levels are all in an upward state. The intraday pressure level is 101,200 and the support level is 96,100 US dollars.
Now let's examine the situation of altcoins.
Among many altcoins, the Sui and Move public chains have shown the strongest momentum. Sui's market value has already surpassed 50 billion dollars, reaching about half of Solana's. It is currently also on our investment list. This year, American public chains are likely to become the main focus of the market, with Rust representing Solana and Move representing Sui.
Currently, the TVL (Total Value Locked) of the Sui chain is growing extremely rapidly, having soared from 350 million dollars to 850 million dollars in less than two months. However, it is necessary to note that Move will unlock 50 million tokens this week, which may bring short-term risks. Recently, some AI agent projects on the chain, such as Virtual, AI16z, Arc, Swarm, etc., seem to be in a correction phase. Just yesterday, Sun Ge mentioned on Twitter that he wants to 'ALL IN AI', and I immediately reminded everyone in the group to be aware of short-term correction risks.
Sun Ge is almost the 'dark lamp' of the industry; whenever he calls out, it basically signifies the short-term peak of that track.
The current correction is precisely an excellent opportunity to increase positions, as profits are generated during declines, while risks arise during rises. Today I updated the bottom-fishing entry points in the group; there's no need to rush to bottom-fish all at once. You can place orders in batches and see if there are any surprises later.
Recently, the AI Agent track has been skyrocketing, and friends are asking me: can we still get in? From the current trend, the AI AGENT track is developing very rapidly, and it has just gotten started. Various VCs, big players, and developers are continuously pouring in.
The heat of this track has already surpassed meme coins, with funding, developers, and market attention all at very high levels. In my view, this year, the AI AGENT track is very likely to experience a major breakout.
Now, various AI Agents are coming in waves, truly dazzling. As an ordinary person, facing this new track full of opportunities and traps, how should one choose?
This week, there are numerous macro data points, which may lead to significant volatility. It is recommended to view them all as opportunities to enter long positions, just focus on the points for entry and exit. From Wednesday to Friday, pay attention to swift transitions; if a substantial drop occurs on Thursday morning, then a massive rally on Friday night is inevitable.
On Wednesday at 21:15, the changes in ADP employment numbers for December will be released;
On Thursday at 3:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting (volatility is expected to be large);
On Friday at 21:30, the non-farm payroll data for December will be released.
In two weeks, Trump will go online, and today Congress certified Trump's victory. On January 20, Trump will officially take office. This period is characterized by favorable expectations, and after the favorable news lands on January 20, a correction may begin, at which point it will be possible to sell at a high.
Next, altcoins will continue to take short-term speculation direction based on the Trump concept or derived Trump concept coins. The Trump concept coins continue to soar, with TREMP, MAGA, and FIGHT showing more obvious trends, basically controlling the increase from 2 to now within the range of 50% - 100%, quickly expanding the bottom range, indicating potential momentum behind them, and they are expected to create a 10-fold space in the next two weeks. Speculation requires learning to leverage short-term momentum and inertia and to dare to act!
Employment sector: RSR, ZRX, DYDX, HNS
Trump sector: AAVE, ONDO, LINK
Grayscale sector: LTC, BCH, ZEN
Payment sector: XRP, XLM, ADA, AGLD
Musk sector: DOGE, PNUT
Next, I will share my thoughts on on-chain investments:
Firstly, I recently found that many people are clearing out all mainstream coins on various CEXs (centralized exchanges) and frantically 'All in' on the AI Agent on-chain track. Undoubtedly, this reflects their confidence and recognition of the new trend; however, I believe this approach is not advisable.
During the AI MEME phase, the on-chain AI field can still maintain information asymmetry due to some mainstream groups' 'biases'. However, as we enter the AI infrastructure (AI infra) phase, this information asymmetry has significantly decreased. Now, many geek developers, technical researchers, and even some venture capital institutions are beginning to focus on the emerging field of AI Agents.
This also means that the days of simply following trends and easily profiting are long gone. On-chain investment has now become a game full of risks and opportunities. Betting everything on the AI narrative carries extremely high risks, possibly even greater than entering at the end of the chaotic era and the beginning of the stable era. Therefore, the wisest approach is to gradually adjust your on-chain positions and never recklessly go all-in.
Secondly, for the layout of on-chain positions, my suggestion is to adopt the 5 + 4 + 1 strategy, as follows:
Large position: Select projects like ai16z, ZEREBRO, AIXBT, GOAT, Virtual, etc., which have formed consensus and stand out as leading projects. These projects are akin to back in the DeFi Summer period when people heavily invested in MKR, COMP, UNI, LINK, etc.
Although this may cause missing out on some small coins' surges in the short term, in the long run, this prudent choice ensures that you remain competitive in this track. This strategy primarily seeks stability, ensuring that your position can survive in future competition.
Medium position: Consider projects like arc, REI, Focai, ELIZA, Swarms, SPORE, SNAI, ALCH, NEUR, etc., which are in a fierce competition phase of technical framework standards and innovative models.
If further subdivided, it can be classified into the following categories: large framework standards > innovative Agent applications > standalone AI > vertical platform services. The core logic here is that large framework standards have the broadest application range and strong foundational nature, thus having the most significant development space and potential. Standalone AI may face certain limitations due to relatively singular functionalities. Innovative applications, while having tremendous potential, are also filled with uncertainties and are a key area for growth.
Small position: You can moderately participate in some small projects that are flying horizontally, such as MetaV, stoic, SYMX, TAOCAT, ZAILGO, POLY, etc.
At first glance, these projects may seem attractive, and the short-term market volatility is also significant; however, many times these projects have not undergone thorough research, hiding many risks. Therefore, these types of projects are more speculative in nature, and it is recommended to maintain a small position, serving merely as a 'gamble' strategy.
From the perspective of the crypto circle, attention is equivalent to wealth, and the attention snowball effect of AI Agents will continue to strengthen. As more and more funds and resources pour in, this industry will further grow. If we can continue to delve deeply along the current direction and continuously enhance our competitiveness, we will ultimately occupy a favorable position in this track.
Fan Q&A:
When is the right time for PNUT to enter?
I entered around 0.6. If you also want to enter, it is advisable to wait until the price breaks through the 0.79 area before entering for more safety. Entering now does not offer a high cost-performance ratio. Even if the breakout fails, due to my low cost, I can choose to take profits and exit, while you might have bought at a high point. If you wait until after the breakout to enter, it would mean a confirmation of a launch signal, relatively entering at a low point, and setting stop-loss will be easier.
How should we view ATOM now?
Analyzing from the weekly K-line chart, the price has returned to the upper range of the box and is currently firmly positioned at the lower boundary of the box. If you plan to enter, you may want to set an expectation and observe whether the price can rise to the upper boundary of the box, which is at position 13.
OP
I think it is worth paying attention to. From the daily chart, there are signs of volume entering; the overall increase is not very high and belongs to coins that follow market trends. Since the good news brought by last year's OP upgrade, there have not been particularly significant moves, and the increase in December only reached position 2.7. However, these situations will not affect its future development.
Its TVL (Total Value Locked) has always been at the forefront of the industry. The only thing to note is that holding OP will take a relatively long time, and it may not be a project that yields results in the short term. Therefore, the biggest challenge may be whether you can be patient.
Looking back at the market adjustment before Christmas, many altcoins have once again hit bottom, only to rebound. When seizing the rebound opportunity, do not forget those days of 'being beaten'!
No matter how crazy the market is, timely profit-taking is essential. Even if it's just reducing positions by 10% or 20%, it is extremely critical for investors with insufficient positions.
After all, no one can predict when a 'black swan' will arrive. Those who have experienced the bloodbath on 312 and 519 know well that cashing out at high points is the best strategy. The current market is indeed changing rapidly, and one must seize the opportunity!
Opportunities in a bull market are fleeting; only by maintaining a keen sense and calm judgment, and planning entry and exit strategies in advance, can one steadily seize winning chances in this unpredictable market. Remember - opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared; if you dare to act and are good at locking in profits, you can become a winner in this round of the bull market!
