#比特币走势观察 talks about my understanding of the current market situation.

1. Why is Bitcoin in a bull market while altcoins are in a bear market?

This is a characteristic unique to Bitcoin's price of 100,000, as 100k represents a psychological expectation for everyone, creating a strong resistance. Bitcoin's price between 90k and 110k falls within the psychological range of 100k. As it approaches 100k, there is an expectation of a pullback, causing altcoins to plummet after Bitcoin surpasses 100k.

2. When does the altcoin season start?

Currently, the interest rate cuts won't last, but with support from the old special, the altcoin season will either occur if Bitcoin drops to 70k or surges above 110k, breaking away from the psychological resistance of 100k. Only then will altcoins be unrestrained and not fear a Bitcoin pullback, thus initiating the altcoin season.

3. What is the market situation for Bitcoin this month?

This depends on the old special. If on the 20th, any positive news regarding the crypto market is announced, it would lead to a breakout above 110k, and then it's likely to consolidate while altcoins catch up. If there is no mention of the crypto market or if there are execution difficulties, it would be negative news. This is hard to predict.

Overall, both sharp declines and surges in Bitcoin are beneficial for altcoins. Let's wait and see in January.