VanEck was established in 1955 and was the first to launch a gold ETF, having significant influence in the traditional finance sector. It is also one of the pioneers in the cryptocurrency field, submitting its first Bitcoin spot ETF application to the SEC in 2019. This vision and uniqueness, whether in emerging markets or traditional markets, is unparalleled, making their predictions worthy of repeated study by ordinary people, as there are countless keys to wealth within.
Let's quickly go through all of VanEck's predictions for cryptocurrency in 2025:
VanEck recently released its top ten predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025, covering various aspects such as market trends, policy changes, and technological developments.
Here is a summary and interpretation of the report:
The cryptocurrency bull market will reach a mid-term peak in the first quarter and set a new high in the fourth quarter: VanEck predicts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach approximately $180,000 in the first quarter of 2025. After that, the market may undergo a correction, meaning Bitcoin will face a roughly 30% pullback next summer, while altcoins will experience a 60% pullback, but mainstream cryptocurrencies are expected to start rising in the fall and set new historical highs before the end of the year. They predict that this peak will reach $180,000 for Bitcoin, over $6,000 for Ethereum, $500 for SOL, and $10 for SUI.
The U.S. will further embrace Bitcoin through strategic reserves and policy support: With the new government's arrival, the U.S. may establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and promote cryptocurrency adoption through legislation and regulatory measures. By 2025, at least one state is expected to start building its strategic Bitcoin reserve. The number of countries using government resources for Bitcoin mining will increase from the current 8 (including the U.S. and Russia) to over 10; the proportion of developers in the crypto space will rise from 19% to 25%; the U.S. Bitcoin hash rate's share of the total network hash rate will increase from 28% to 35%; the Bitcoin holdings of listed companies will grow by 43%; the number of listed companies holding Bitcoin will increase from 68 to 100; and the total number of Bitcoins held by private and listed companies will grow from 765,000 to 1.1 million, surpassing the balance of Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet address.
The total value of tokenized securities will exceed $50 billion: As more traditional financial assets are tokenized on the blockchain, the market size for tokenized securities is expected to surpass $50 billion in 2025. Government departments will deploy their own operations on mainstream public chains, aiming to address anti-money laundering objectives on government chains. It is also predicted that the leading U.S. crypto exchange, Coinbase, is very likely to tokenize its own coin stock, allowing people worldwide to purchase their tokens through the blockchain.
Stablecoin daily settlement volume will reach $300 billion: The use of stablecoins as payment and settlement tools will see significant growth, with average daily settlement volume expected to reach $300 billion. To put this into perspective, this figure is about three times the daily peak of $100 billion during the bull market in 2021.
The number of on-chain AI agent activities will exceed 1 million: The integration of artificial intelligence and blockchain will give rise to a large number of autonomously operating AI agents, which will flourish in areas such as decentralized finance (DeFi), social media, and gaming. For example, on-chain generated captain Q&A bots, playmate bots, quantitative bots, etc., are expected to see explosive economic value growth in the future.
The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin's second-layer network will reach 100,000 Bitcoins: Simply put, second-layer networks simplify the ledger outside the main network to reduce congestion on the main network. With the proliferation of second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network, the amount of Bitcoin locked is expected to reach 100,000 Bitcoins, improving the network's scalability and transaction efficiency, growing at an annual rate of 65%.
Ethereum's data sharding (blob space) will generate $1 billion in fee revenue: The upgrade of the Ethereum network will enhance its data processing capabilities and develop numerous L2 projects. However, currently, all L2 projects have their own ecosystem tokens, which means this increase contributes very little to Ethereum's market value. In essence, these L2s have consumed too much of what should belong to Ethereum's market value. In the future, the blobs packaged by these L2s uploaded to Ethereum will mainly charge higher fees, with expected related fee revenue reaching $1 billion, reflecting increased network usage, which is a significant benefit for Ethereum.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) will reach historical highs, with DEX trading volume hitting $4 trillion and TVL reaching $200 billion: The DeFi ecosystem will continue to expand, with decentralized exchanges (DEX) expected to reach new milestones in trading volume and total locked value (TVL). Current data has not yet exceeded the peak of the bull market in 2021, indicating there is still significant growth potential in this bull market.
The NFT market will recover, with trading volume reaching $30 billion: The non-fungible token (NFT) market is expected to recover after experiencing adjustments, with trading volume projected to reach $30 billion. This is approximately 55% of the previous market peak, indirectly reflecting the fact that NFTs were previously over-leveraged, and it may take longer to repair valuations in the future.
The performance of decentralized application (DApp) tokens will narrow the gap with layer one (L1) blockchain tokens: With the launch of more innovative DApps, the market performance of their tokens is expected to catch up with or even surpass that of the underlying blockchain tokens, reflecting an increase in application layer value.
These are all of VanEck's predictions and my views on some of them. Overall, the outlook remains optimistic, but still worth looking forward to. It is precisely because of the emergence of such positive expectations that the future market can create a consistent force to push prices higher. I hope everyone can seize opportunities and change their fate in this bull market through learning and their own understanding.
