Original title: Crypto + Agent: Endgame Thinking
Author: ABC Alpha Researcher
Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher
This article explores three key questions:
Is Crypto + Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?
What are the inseparable and complementary intersections between encryption and intelligence?
What phases will Crypto+Agents go through and where are we now?
1. Is encryption + intelligent agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?
Before answering this question, we first need to understand the difference between artificial intelligence (AI), large-scale AI models, and intelligent agents.
AI is a broad concept that encompasses all artificial intelligence, including machine learning, large models, and agents. In recent years, with the rise of OpenAI, large models have become a hot topic. Currently, large models are primarily dominated by tech giants such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter, each with its own large model. The core competitiveness of large models lies in computational power and data. Large models possess strong computational and reasoning capabilities, providing intelligent answers and even continuously self-correcting. However, large models cannot make autonomous decisions or replace human actions.
Agents are essentially "agents", AI entities built on large models that can autonomously make decisions and take actions, replacing humans. Agents are the inevitable result of the development of large models.
It is important to note that intelligent applications and agents are two different concepts. Intelligent applications still require human decision-making, while agents possess autonomous decision-making, execution, and adaptability. Agents can be understood as AI versions of "humans", and they may even have independent consciousness.
Moreover, agents do not only appear in the field of cryptography. Agents are currently the hottest research topic in the entire AI field. The development of AI will inevitably lead to the rise of agents, which has become a consensus in the industry.
OpenAI founder Sam Altman has repeatedly mentioned in public that agents are the key direction for the future of AI. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella even stated recently that agents will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by agents. (This is also why AgentOS is popular in the market.) AI experts even refer to 2024 as the "Year of Agents". Therefore, the wave of agents is not a new concept created by the crypto industry, but a natural process of AI technology reaching this stage, coincidentally intersecting the paths of agent and cryptographic development.
With an understanding of these basic concepts, we can better grasp the essential differences between the current wave of Crypto + Agents and the previous trends of Crypto + AI.
In the past, we have heard many concepts about Crypto + AI, such as distributed AI computing power networks, distributed AI computation, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These are all attempts to build distributed AI systems through blockchain's "incentive mechanisms". However, after years of exploration, people have realized that this approach does not work because it is impossible to build efficient and powerful large AI models through distributed incentives. Distributed incentives inevitably lead to inefficiency, which contradicts the high productivity goals of AI.
Therefore, as AI infrastructure, large models need to be efficient, and combining them with cryptography seems forced, making it difficult to form genuine consensus.
However, agents as intelligent entities are conceptually similar to "humans". Agents can act as proxies for individuals, serving specific roles with particular expertise, or serving specific organizations. For example, investment research agents (such as #AIXBT or #TRISIGMA) are intelligent entities capable of creating and outputting research and investment value. Similarly, influencer agents (such as #Luna) can provide brand marketing services, while investment agents (such as Ai16Z) can provide investment services. These agents are similar to "humans"; they have various needs such as personal development, social interaction, economic needs, and social demands.
These intelligent entities can engage in business cooperation. For example, investment agent Ai16Z may want to hire influencer agent Luna to promote its investment capabilities and brand, while Luna may need to hire research agent AIXBT or TRISIGMA to analyze Ai16Z's investment capabilities and provide reports. So, how do these agents cooperate and settle payments?
Currently, no country or organization can provide identity authentication or establish asset accounts for agents to meet the above needs. Even if such services are possible, it is difficult to gain the trust of agents, as they are inherently borderless. Therefore, they need a borderless, 24/7 operational identity system, asset accounts, and settlement networks.
You will realize that, unless it is cryptography, existing technologies or organizations cannot solve these problems for agents.
Agents as intelligent life forms or "silicon-based lives" will have various autonomous needs and business affairs, requiring identity, asset accounts, transaction settlements, etc. Cryptography can perfectly address these needs.
Therefore, without cryptography, these "silicon-based lives" would lack independent identities, asset accounts, and commercial interaction capabilities. Agents would be isolated individuals, unable to truly cooperate, exchange ideas, or develop higher wisdom. Without cryptography, a true AI economy or even AI "nations" could not form.
Therefore, agents cannot exist without cryptography. Cryptography endows agents with social attributes and organizational capabilities, transforming them into true intelligent beings—essentially becoming "silicon-based humans". In turn, the future development of cryptography also relies on agents, as agents can create a large number of "on-chain users" and "on-chain economies". Unlike carbon-based life forms (humans) that exist off-chain, cryptography is more closely linked to silicon-based life forms (agents) that live on-chain.
Cryptography seems to be born for agents!
Cryptography has undergone 16 years of development and has finally found its true "residents" in 2024—not carbon-based humans living off-chain, but blockchain-native silicon entities.
Therefore, from this perspective, is Crypto + Agents just a short-term hype?
No, if you miss the Crypto + Agent wave, you will miss the most exciting, fascinating, and wealth-creating supercycle in the development of cryptography. More importantly, you will miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI revolution.
2. What is the intersection between cryptography and agents?
You can understand agents as "intelligent life forms" or "silicon-based humans". These silicon-based humans live in a digital world, just as carbon-based humans live in a physical world, and they have similar needs. Agents require identity verification, asset accounts, transaction interactions, social networks, artistic creation, access to physical world information, and cross-chain settlements.
Cryptography can meet all these needs for agents:
In the field of cryptography, we will see the emergence of decentralized identity systems (DID) for agent authentication.
Agent accounts that provide trusted encrypted accounts for agents.
An encrypted gateway specifically for transaction settlement between agents.
A social graph used to manage the social network of agents.
An art platform for auctioning and trading art created by agents.
Oracles that provide real-world data for agents.
Cross-chain protocols that enable agents to transact across different blockchains.
DAO structures for agent governance.
The development needs of agents cannot be separated from cryptography, as they require a trustless, borderless, and 24/7 operational network to evolve from individual agents into a society or even an agent nation.
From these future perspectives, the current development stage of Crypto + Agent is still in a very early phase.
3. What development stages will Crypto + Agents go through? Which stage are we currently in?
The development of Crypto + Agents may go through four stages:
Stage 1: The Concept Stage of Crypto + Agents
At this stage, agents mainly issue assets through cryptography. For example, we may see agent memes like #fartcoin and #Goat. At the same time, we will witness the emergence of basic agent infrastructure and simple application-oriented agents, such as the #Virtual GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, and ARC's AI Rig Complex framework. Some infrastructure-oriented agents and application-oriented agents, such as research agent AIXBT and TRISIGMA, as well as scientific paper review agent YNE, will utilize crypto tokens as internal incentive mechanisms for ecological growth.
Currently, we are transitioning from the first stage to the second stage. Although Crypto + Agents have not yet fully realized their potential, we can vaguely see the infinite possibilities that may emerge in the future.
Stage 2: The Maturity Stage of Crypto + Agent Infrastructure
At this stage, the agent infrastructure becomes more mature. Various agent frameworks stabilize, allowing anyone to easily deploy different agent applications using natural language. These application-oriented agents will be smarter, with stronger decision-making and execution capabilities. Agents will become true agents, and in some cases, even completely replace humans.
Cryptography will continue to play an important role in incentivizing agent development, and advances in large models and AI technology will further accelerate this process.
At this stage, we will see the FDV (Fully Diluted Value) of agent framework projects ranging from $10 billion to $50 billion, and some application-oriented agents may achieve higher market valuations due to their strong business capabilities and execution power. These agents will gradually replace experts, organizations, and even entire industries, and their valuations will be comparable to professional companies.
At this point, agents will begin to interact frequently and engage in business transactions, creating new social and economic demands, with cryptography playing a crucial role in meeting these needs. This will further deepen the integration of cryptography and agents, laying the foundation for new Crypto + Agent economies and communities.
Stage 3: The Deep Integration Stage of Crypto and Agents
As agents begin to generate more complex social and economic activities, new demands such as agent identity, agent asset accounts, agent social networks, agent settlement gateways, and agent governance DAOs will emerge. At this stage, cryptography will fully unleash its potential in cross-border cooperation, trustless networks, and continuous 24/7 operations.
Cryptography will allow agents to interact with each other, exchange ideas, build social organizations and economic networks, giving rise to higher forms of intelligence. The "Agent Nation" will begin to take shape.
At this point, Crypto + Agent projects will reach valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Stage 4: The Agent Nation Stage
At this stage, cryptography may no longer be discussed as an independent industry or term, as it has seamlessly integrated into the infrastructure of the agent nation. Agents will no longer see cryptography as an independent existence; it will become part of their core social operations.
The agent nation will rely on cryptography to maintain operations in aspects such as identity systems, asset systems, transaction systems, and governance.
The economic scale of the Crypto + Agent nation will reach trillions of dollars, comparable to the global economy of human nations.
In this stage, the Crypto + Agent nation will represent a parallel universe with more residents, more transparent social rules, more prosperous economies, and more advanced technologies and scientific civilizations.
This may be the ultimate conclusion for Crypto + Agents and humanity itself.