#加密市场反弹
January 5, 2025.
Let's see if there are opportunities to play with altcoins in the future.
Ethereum has risen to $3666.
This time I also predict that the market and other coins will adjust, and the altcoin season will evolve into an 'altcoin festival', with a river of blood.
Since ETH and BNB have not risen much, they are less affected by mean reversion and can even rise independently.
At that time, I can exchange some positions for some cheap altcoins and make the final battle of the cycle, to see if I can achieve my wishes.
Bitcoin, due to an annualized 150% in 2023 and an annualized 120% in 2024, I do not believe that the returns in 2025 will be higher.
Bitcoin's returns this year should be less than mainstream altcoins.
SUI is a new coin and is also less affected by mean reversion.
This time, SUI has reached a new high again, and no one knows where its ceiling is, but I will not touch it.
DOGE surged due to a wave of news, but its sustainability is difficult to predict. XRP has deviated too high from the annual line, and mean reversion is just a matter of time.
Chasing highs generally yields poor results; buying more or less is not suitable.
It's better not to buy.
It’s really hard to get into other coins in the market; if altcoins have not sunk below the annual line, it’s not worth exchanging valuable coins for them.
Hold ETH and BNB well.
If you want to compound, risk avoidance should always be the first priority.
Even in a bull market cycle, all altcoins that deviate from the annual line in price should preferably not be bought, and do not chase highs.
Buying without regard to risk will only result in being stuck with a basket of altcoins later.
The late stage of a bull market will lead investors to chase high prices for junk that is not worth buying, leading to excessive leverage and a bubble burst.
No matter when, if you don't chase highs, the risks you bear will be limited.
Buy value coins during pullbacks that have 'low cumulative gains' and 'do not deviate excessively from the annual line', and then consider altcoins.
Deviating too high from the annual line is always a measure of excessive bubbles.