Author: Robbie Petersen
Compiled by: 深潮 TechFlow
Prediction #1: The front end will dominate value capture
As the MEV supply chain matures, participants who control exclusive order flows will derive more value.
The reason is simple. Various participants downstream of the order flow—such as DEX, seekers, builders, and validators—will face more intense competition. The originators of the order flow (i.e., the front end) have a natural monopoly advantage in the MEV supply chain.
This means that the only role capable of increasing yields without significantly losing market share is the front end, particularly those front ends that control 'fee-sensitive' order flows (e.g., digital wallets).
Additionally, emerging technologies like conditional liquidity (e.g., @DFlowProtocol) will further drive the development of this trend.
Prediction #2: The market value of DePIN will grow fivefold by 2025
Market leaders in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), such as @Helium and @Hivemapper, will approach breakthrough points due to their network effects. Meanwhile, @dawninternet will become the most groundbreaking application in the DePIN space due to significant technological improvements and crypto-economic incentives.
Prediction #3: The application of encrypted payment tracks in agent trading is limited
In the early stages, transactions between humans and agents will still rely on traditional payment tracks. Stripe and PayPal will dominate the early infrastructure for agent payments through 'For Benefit Of' (FBO) account structures.
But only when the autonomy of agents reaches a certain level will the high-fee model of traditional payment tracks expose its limitations. With the rise of microtransactions and usage-based pricing demands, traditional payment tracks (around 3% fees) will become unsustainable.
However, this situation will not occur in 2025, as most transactions will still be interactions between humans and agents. (Refer to the tweet)
Prediction #4: Stablecoins will bridge the application gap in financial technology
The role of stablecoins will shift from being the 'lubricant' of DeFi (decentralized finance) to a true medium of exchange.
This shift benefits from two main reasons why fintech companies adopt stablecoins: (1) to enhance profitability, (2) to strategically control more of the payment chain.
As the widespread adoption of stablecoins becomes a necessity for fintech companies' survival, the number of monthly active stablecoin addresses is expected to exceed 50 million.
Prediction #5: Visa launches stablecoin plans, actively adjusting profit structures
To address potential disruptive changes in the payment chain, Visa is proactively laying out stablecoin plans. While this may cut into the profits of its card network, this risk appears more manageable compared to being completely disrupted by the market. This logic also applies to other fintech companies and banks.
Prediction #6: The market share of 'yield-distribution' stablecoins will grow tenfold
'Yield-distribution' stablecoins (like USDG @Paxos, 'M' @m0foundation, and AUSD @withAUSD) change the economic model of stablecoins by redistributing the profits traditionally earned by stablecoin issuers to applications that provide liquidity to the network.
Although Tether will maintain its market dominance in 2025, the model of 'yield-distribution' stablecoins is considered the direction for future development for the following reasons:
(1) The importance of distribution channels: Unlike previous attempts to directly attract end users, 'yield-distribution' stablecoins target applications that have distribution channels. This model aligns the incentives of distributors and issuers for the first time.
(2) The power of network effects: By incentivizing multiple applications to integrate simultaneously, 'yield-distribution' stablecoins can fully leverage the network effects of the entire distributor ecosystem.
In 2025, the market share of these stablecoins will significantly increase with the cooperation between distributors (especially fintech companies) and market makers, as they can create more direct benefits for distributors.
Prediction #7: The boundaries between wallets and applications are becoming increasingly blurred
Wallets will gradually integrate functions similar to applications, such as deposit earnings (like @fusewallet), credit accounts (like @GearboxProtocol), native trading functionalities, and interfaces similar to chatbots, through which users can express needs, executed by AI agents and backend solvers.
At the same time, applications will also try to maintain direct relationships with end users by hiding the existence of wallets. For example, the mobile application launched by @JupiterExchange is an early case.
The biggest drive for a centralized wallet vision comes from exchanges like @coinbase, which view wallet products as the main way for on-chain users to monetize. (Refer to the tweet)
Prediction #8: Chain abstraction will transition from theory to practice at the wallet level
Although discussions on chain abstraction have previously focused mainly on the chain and application layers, the optimal solution is to directly meet user needs. New technologies such as @OneBalance_io's resource locking, @NEARProtocol's chain signature, and @Safe's SafeNet are driving a new paradigm that achieves chain abstraction at the wallet level.
Prediction #9: General-purpose L2 will gradually lose relevance
The concentration trend of future blockchain activities can be summarized in one question:
As an application, why should I choose to operate on your chain?
For a few general-purpose chains with a clear positioning (like Solana and Base) as well as vertically integrated chains (like HypeEVM and Unichain), the answers are clear.
However, for those long-tail general-purpose chains, the answer is not clear. By 2025, blockchain activity will increasingly concentrate on a few chains that can provide clear value to applications.
Prediction #10: The boundaries between attention and value will gradually disappear
As the most direct embodiment of the theory of attention value, the value of AI agent tokens will continue to grow.
