Original author: Robbie Petersen.
Original translation: Deep Tide TechFlow.
Prediction #1: The front end will dominate in value capture.
As the MEV supply chain matures, those who control exclusive order flows will gain more value.
The reason is simple. Various participants downstream of the order flow—such as DEXs, seekers, builders, and validators—will face more intense competition. Those who originate the order flow (i.e., the front end) will have a natural monopoly advantage in the MEV supply chain.
This means that the only role capable of increasing yields without significantly losing market share is the front end, especially those front ends that handle "fee-sensitive" order flows (e.g. digital wallets).
In addition, emerging technologies such as conditional liquidity (e.g. @DFlowProtocol) will further drive the development of this trend.
Prediction #2: The market value of DePIN will grow fivefold by 2025.
Market leaders in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), such as @Helium and @Hivemapper, will approach a breakthrough point with their network effects. @dawninternet, with significant technological improvements and cryptoeconomic incentives, will become the most groundbreaking application in DePIN for the year.
Prediction #3: The application of crypto payment tracks in agent transactions will be limited.
In the early stages, transactions between humans and agents will still rely on traditional payment tracks. Stripe and PayPal will dominate the early agent payment infrastructure through the 'For Benefit Of' (FBO) account structure.
However, it is only when the autonomy of agents reaches a certain level that the high-cost model of traditional payment tracks will expose its limitations. Due to the rise of microtransactions and usage-based pricing demands, traditional payment tracks (with about 3% fees) will become unsustainable.
However, this situation will not occur by 2025, as most transactions will still be interactions between humans and agents. (Refer to tweet)
Prediction #4: Stablecoins will cross the application gap in fintech.
The role of stablecoins will shift from being the "lubricant" of DeFi (decentralized finance) to a true medium of exchange.
This shift is driven by two main reasons for fintech companies adopting stablecoins: (1) enhancing profitability, and (2) strategically controlling more of the payment chain.
As the widespread adoption of stablecoins becomes a necessity for the survival of fintech companies, the number of monthly active stablecoin addresses is expected to exceed 50 million.
Prediction #5: Visa will launch a stablecoin plan, proactively adjusting its profit structure.
To respond to potentially disruptive changes in the payment chain, Visa has proactively laid out a stablecoin plan. While this may cut into profits from its card network, this risk is more manageable compared to being completely disrupted by the market. This logic also applies to other fintech companies and banks.
Prediction #6: The market share of "yield-distributing" stablecoins will grow tenfold.
"Yield-distributing" stablecoins (such as USDG @Paxos, "M" @m0foundation, and AUSD @withAUSD) change the economic model of stablecoins by redistributing the profits traditionally obtained by stablecoin issuers to applications that provide liquidity to the network.
Although Tether will still maintain its market dominance in 2025, the model of "yield-distributing" stablecoins is considered the future direction for the following reasons:
(1) The importance of distribution channels: Unlike previous attempts to directly attract end users with yield-generating stablecoins, "yield-distributing" stablecoins target applications with distribution channels. This model synchronously aligns the incentives of distributors and issuers for the first time.
(2) The power of network effects: By incentivizing multiple applications to integrate simultaneously, "yield-distributing" stablecoins can fully leverage the network effects of the entire distributor ecosystem.
By 2025, with the collaboration of distributors (especially fintech companies) and market makers, the market share of these stablecoins will significantly increase, as they can create more direct benefits for distributors.
Prediction #7: The boundary between wallets and applications will become increasingly blurred.
Wallets will gradually integrate features similar to applications, such as deposit yields (e.g. @fusewallet), credit accounts (e.g. @GearboxProtocol), native trading functions, and interfaces similar to chatbots, where users can express needs and have operations executed by AI agents and backend solvers.
Meanwhile, applications will also try to maintain a direct relationship with end users by hiding the existence of wallets. For example, the mobile application launched by @JupiterExchange is an early case.
The biggest driving force behind the vision of centralized wallets comes from exchanges like @coinbase, which view wallet products as the primary means of monetizing on-chain users. (Refer to tweet)
Prediction #8: Chain abstraction will move from theory to practice at the wallet level.
Although discussions of chain abstraction have primarily focused on the chain and application layers, the optimal solution is to directly meet user needs. New technologies like @OneBalance_io's resource lock, @NEARProtocol's chain signature, and @Safe's SafeNet are driving a new paradigm of achieving chain abstraction at the wallet level.
Prediction #9: General-purpose L2 will gradually lose relevance.
The trend of centralization in future blockchain activity can be summarized by one question:
As an application, why should I choose to run on your chain?
For a few clearly positioned general-purpose chains (such as Solana and Base) and vertically integrated chains (such as HypeEVM and Unichain), the answers are clear.
However, for those long-tail general-purpose chains, the answers are not clear. By 2025, blockchain activity will become increasingly concentrated on a few chains that can provide clear value to applications.
Prediction #10: The boundaries between attention and value will gradually disappear.
As the most direct embodiment of the attention-value theory, the value of AI agent tokens will continue to grow.
