PANews reported on January 4 that this week, the darling of global speculators and the largest ETF tracking Bitcoin experienced the worst capital outflow in history, the volatility index of U.S. Treasury bonds quietly rose, and U.S. stocks experienced the worst year-end decline on record. There is no sign of panic in the market, but market trends do indicate a vigilance that has been largely non-existent in the past 12 months, at least in the field of risky assets. Concerns about Trump's policies and their impact on inflation have awakened the hedge market. Next week's non-farm payrolls report will play a central role in influencing market sentiment. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
Monday 22:30, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks;
Tuesday 18:00, Eurozone December CPI year-on-year/month-on-month preliminary value, Eurozone November unemployment rate;
Tuesday 23:00, US December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US November JOLTs job openings;
Wednesday 21:15, US December ADP employment change;
Thursday 03:00, Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 09:30, China December CPI year-on-year;
Thursday 20:30, US December Challenger job cuts;
Thursday 22:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker speaks;
Friday 01:40, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin speaks;
Friday 02:30, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas Federal Reserve President Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook;
Friday 21:30, US December unemployment rate, US December seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US December average hourly wage year-on-year/month-on-month;
Friday 23:00, US January one-year inflation expectation preliminary value, US January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value.
Next week, the US will release several labor market data, starting with Tuesday's JOLTs job openings data, followed by Wednesday's ADP employment data, and finally Friday's non-farm payroll data. It is noteworthy that the December non-farm payroll data is the first report in several months that is not influenced by one-time factors. UBS expects December's US job additions to be close to the recent average, continuing to show a gradual cooling of the labor market, providing room for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Given the current market pricing, strong labor data is unlikely to lead to further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while weak data may cause the market to consider further cuts. However, US data is unlikely to weaken the US dollar index at this stage.