BTC and the overall market are experiencing continued small rises, with some coins even showing significant increases. So, what should those with no positions do now? Is it possible to chase highs? Should part of the position be liquidated? Let's take a look at various news and data to review. This video is for personal review purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
First, the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to fluctuate and consolidate between 95000-99500. The small rise over the past three days is not solid enough, but breaking 100,000 or reaching a new high within a month is likely. Currently, any significant drop presents a good opportunity to add positions, and it is crucial not to chase highs or hold empty positions.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 690-735. Among these three mainstream coins, BNB's 90-day moving average is relatively close to the current price, and there is substantial airdrop support for the price, making it relatively calm for holders.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3400-3700. Institutions increased their holdings last night, and the current price level is relatively solid, with a low probability of a sharp drop. The options pain point also remains close to the current area, making it suitable for small dollar-cost averaging.
Regarding some coins: Due to favorable news, there was a small surge, although the volume wasn't very high, so avoid excessive chasing of highs. Those with profits can sell some to secure gains. Solana is also speculated to be waiting for BTC to pull back before taking action.
In terms of news, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has been re-elected, supporting the (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) and opposing the central bank digital currency bill, which is expected to drive cryptocurrency-related legislation in 2025. The chairman of the Korea Exchange, Jeong Eun-bo, expressed interest in launching a cryptocurrency-based ETF, but CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju voiced concerns about South Korea's preparedness to approve such products. MicroStrategy plans to issue up to $2 billion in perpetual preferred stock to enhance its balance sheet and increase its Bitcoin holdings. The issuance is expected in the first quarter of 2025 but depends on market conditions and other factors.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the 4-hour line has shown three consecutive bullish candles since 4 PM yesterday, indicating a strong trend with some small volume. However, after reaching 98976, there was no upward volume, and a new position consolidation began. If today's daily candle closes bullish, it will be three consecutive bullish days, although with lower volume, and still no breakout from the complex head and shoulders pattern. The market may experience a pullback, but it is expected to be minor.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 73, which falls into the greed category, down by 1 from yesterday, similar to yesterday. This small rise has not triggered significant emotional responses.
3. The perpetual contract funding rate for BTC is 0.0101%, and for ETH it is 0.0094%. The long and short positions are relatively balanced, so those with high contract positions should be alert for significant changes.
4. The maximum pain point for options over the next three months is being observed: For the next three days, it is around 97000-98000, which is slightly higher than yesterday. However, the maximum pain point for the entire month of January has not been seen exceeding $100,000. The options contract ratio is in a relatively balanced state, with no momentum to pull each other.
5. In the spot ETF market, BTC increased by 9356 coins last night, and ETH saw an inflow of 17,000 coins, indicating high enthusiasm. MSTR also surged, showing that institutions are willing to increase their holdings in January, with expectations for favorable market conditions. Further observation next week will help speculate on the market trends in late January.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC has returned to a strong position on a weekly time frame, maintaining neutrality over the last 24 hours. The same goes for ETH, with neutrality over the week and the last 24 hours, similar to yesterday, which is relatively normal with normal selling pressure. Currently, most coins do not have significant selling pressure. Be aware that the selling pressure for some coins across various time frames is higher than others.
7. According to the escape peak index, it is currently in the middle-lower range, which indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC hoarding index has dropped to 1.40. This is slightly higher than yesterday, indicating an unsuitable range for hoarding coins.
Overall judgment: Still a reminder not to blindly chase highs. Currently, having around 60% position is relatively comfortable. Even for those bearish, it is not appropriate to open short positions this month to avoid being caught in significant market movements. At the current position, it is still advisable to keep some dry powder in case there is a deep retracement before a rise, which could lead to profits.