Bitcoin is firmly above 96,000 dollars today. Behind this stability is traders' cautious attitude towards the upcoming important event—such as Trump's inauguration on January 20. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures reached 0.01% in the latest 8-hour contract period, the highest point in the past week, but still within the 'neutral range.'
Currently, the decline seems to have stopped, and there appears to be some signs of a rebound. However, based on the data, a significant rise in the short term may be somewhat difficult! Additionally, due to low market liquidity over the weekend, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between 96,000 and 99,800, showing slight increases, but not significant. The trading volume is also not keeping up, so don't rush to call a bull market just yet.
Key period of long-short game
In less than three weeks, Trump will return to the White House, and crypto investors may expect a wave of positive news. The long-short ratio of Bitcoin derivatives is above 1 across several major exchanges, indicating that the number of bullish Bitcoin contracts exceeds bearish ones, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. Ethereum also shows a similar trend, with the long-short ratio exceeding 1 on major exchanges such as Anyan and OK, but still maintaining a neutral range.
This stability reflects that market investors are somewhat optimistic but remain cautious before key events occur (such as Trump's inauguration) and have not yet aggressively entered long positions. Coinciding with a weekend of liquidity shortage, the short-term theme of the crypto market is expected to be consolidation and adjustment, so you can position yourself in advance to wait for a market explosion!
Trump will take office on the 20th, and based on historical data, there will be a wave of upward movement before the good news materializes. It is worth noting that after this rise, there will be a deeper decline, and after the decline, a more intense rise will follow. According to previous scenarios when the Bitcoin ETF was released, Trump's inauguration may follow a similar pattern. Those who have not yet positioned can start from today, accumulating at lower prices. From the 20th to the end of this month, there will likely be an adjustment, and February and March are likely to show a good overall upward trend! This is the general market trend.
Altcoins are strongly rebounding! AI tokens are becoming the new focus, driving a new narrative in the market!
As Bitcoin's price stabilizes, altcoins have also shown impressive recovery momentum recently, especially after experiencing severe volatility at the end of 2024, many coins have rebounded significantly.
However, compared to this, the new topic in the market is gradually focusing on the rise of AI-related tokens, especially those utilizing blockchain technology for portfolio management and DeFi optimization. In short, one of the main themes of this bull market is definitely AI agents.
Recently, secondary altcoins have been heavily affected by on-chain AI, and this situation may continue until the end of January. Everyone can appropriately tilt their focus towards on-chain activities, as the recent money-making effect on-chain has been quite good. It is expected that the on-chain AI market will continue, at least relatively safe in January! Everyone must be cautious about risks, but do not blindly FOMO in a heated moment!
Here are some quality coins in the AI agent sector:
1. virtual series:
aixbt, game, luna, vader, trust
2. ai16z ecosystem:
Eliza, fxn, metav, aimonica, degenai
3. Three small ecological systems:
vvaifu, hat, CreatorBid, only select absolute leaders among these three;
4. Independent ecological projects:
griffain, zerebro, fai, arc, zailgo, alch, swarms, snai, trisig, etc.
However, it is important to remember that the vast majority of on-chain AI projects will ultimately trend towards zero; do not hold faith in them. AI leading projects can be held for a longer period, but other than that, don't indulge in excessive fantasies!
Funds earned from AI can slowly return to the secondary market to purchase mainstream coins or strong altcoin leaders, which is currently the most correct strategy!
With so many symbols in the secondary market, we can choose like this:
If you pursue high risk and high returns, you can ambush strong varieties mentioned above, which are key targets for ambush. If you seek low risk and high returns, then accumulate Ethereum at lower prices. Ethereum is likely to touch 4000 dollars before the 20th, and then look for Bitcoin in the range of 103000~105000!
Currently, Ethereum needs to stabilize around 3550 to initiate a new round of increases. If you haven’t bought the dip in the range of 3450~3550 before, a pullback can be a good opportunity to position yourself.
But remember, surviving is always more important than making profits! Less greed, more survival! Live longer, and big and small opportunities will naturally follow!