After a period of stagnation, Bitcoin's performance has attracted market attention, while altcoins are in a continuous adjustment phase, which has left many feeling confused. Many are concerned whether Bitcoin will drop below $90,000 and whether altcoins will further hit new lows.
However, this kind of sentiment actually lacks sufficient practical basis and is more of an emotional reaction, known as 'emotional prediction.' This anxiety is often caused by an over-interpretation of market trends, especially for novice investors, who can easily fall into this 'newbie anxiety syndrome.'
These types of investors are often influenced by the patterns of the previous round; for example, the market trends from April to September 2024 left a deep impression on them. However, as we enter 2025, the market environment has changed, and if investors continue to judge the market based on old thinking, they are likely to miss new investment opportunities.
In the past two days, secondary altcoins have experienced a significant outflow of funds to on-chain AI, with almost no noticeable market activity. This situation may continue until February.
Yesterday, various AI dog coins and AI framework types like swarms displayed strong FOMO sentiment. After launching moonshot yesterday, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $100 million directly doubled the price and drove continuous increases in other coins like ALCH.
After Binance launched perpetual contracts for AI16z, Zerebro, and Griffain, the market subsequently fell. It was previously mentioned that many on-chain projects, when launched and greeted with enthusiasm, are likely to see their first wave of market activity decline. However, if it is spot trading, there is still operational space!
Recently, the investment focus can be moderately shifted to on-chain projects because the earning effect on-chain has been quite good, and on-chain dog coins are constantly emerging.
(1) buzz
Dev jsonhedman, engaged in AI + DeFi, won first place in the Microsoft Generative AI Hackathon. This project saw its market value soar to $40 million in just a few hours. I still remember when I first saw the code, its market value was only $4 million. Really, if you move a bit slower, you will miss this wave of market activity.
The market has now entered a phase of participating first and researching later. If many projects are not able to intervene at the first opportunity, then they can only consider the next one.
(2) sandy
Creating AI video rendering is also a big奶 concept meme that came out yesterday, with FDV peaking at $33 million and now at $24 million.
(3) swarms, zailgo, mcs
The top investors in these three projects are the same person, and their price movements show a trend of rising and falling together, competing with each other to increase.
The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of swarms has surged to $200 million, whereas just a week ago, it was only around $20 million. It has now steadily grown into a small-cap project. Zailgo is also a framework protocol that has received attention on Twitter and has a certain level of abstraction; today its price has doubled, and the current FDV has reached $64 million.
As for why not go for spot trading?
Top projects like AI16z virtual have a disproportionately high share of front-row chips; once they go live on Binance, they are likely to initiate selling operations. I estimate that these projects will struggle to introduce spot trading in the short term and may prefer to choose hot tech projects with FDV of 100-200 million, like swarms and alch.
The on-chain AI market will continue for some time, at least relatively stable in January. However, everyone must pay attention to risks and must not impulsively invest all their funds. It should be noted that the vast majority of on-chain AI projects will eventually trend toward zero value; do not hold unrealistic beliefs about them. For leading AI projects, it is reasonable to hold them long-term, but for others, do not have excessive expectations. Funds obtained from AI projects can gradually be transferred back to the secondary market to purchase valuable coins; this is currently the most reasonable strategy.
AI Agent old coins are pulling back, while these four new coins are strongly rising today.
Although the vast majority of AI coins are in a pullback, be aware that it is not a halt. If there is no pullback, even I would panic; a decline is actually a good thing. Yesterday, I mentioned that the collective sentiment was overly FOMO, and there is bound to be a pullback demand. Moreover, AI16z went live on the BN contract yesterday, marking a phase peak; now the pullback is a good opportunity to accumulate chips.
Taking the DeFi boom as an analogy, at the beginning, the market mainly focused on the competition between swap and lending protocols, which are both considered the cornerstones of DeFi. Once top projects like Uniswap and Aave established themselves, it was the turn of infrastructure projects like $LINK to shine. The market then entered a phase of various exploitative attacks and complex layering strategies, and later, as the track became saturated, some so-called 'micro-innovations' or even 'pseudo-innovations' began to emerge.
When it develops to the point where some project issues can only be understood by relying on tools or repeated research, it actually means that the track has about reached its end. Throughout this process, as long as you closely follow the hot spots and continuously increase the quantity of $Aave, $Uni, and $LINK, theoretically, you will be able to capture the maximum gains as the bull market approaches its end.
Therefore, during this market correction, I have already taken profits from some small and medium coins that performed well. Now, I am gradually increasing my positions in several large-cap coins with a market cap exceeding 1 billion through dollar-cost averaging.
At the same time, explore new projects and use small costs to seek high returns. Continue to pay attention to opportunities in the market cap below 10 million and above 100 million, looking for possible next hotspots.
Finally, let's see if BIO can be bought after its launch?
The total issuance of BIO is 3.32 billion tokens, with a current valuation of $219 million. It is estimated that if the price is below $0.08, it can be considered a relatively safe entry point.
In today's bull market environment with a surge of new coins, many new coins will experience a significant rise within 1-2 days of going live, followed by continuous selling pressure. Before new coins go live, the situation is full of uncertainty. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone enter cautiously, using the price during the auction and the actual price after launch as important reference points!
Old traders discuss trading insights:
Trading: 20% technique, 20% luck, 60% mindset.
1. Identify trends, find entry points, and calculate the risk-reward ratio.
2. Frequent trading leads to being unable to control oneself; set a goal for yourself: stop once you earn a fixed amount of USDT each day. Earning a living through trading is a mindset that workers can't achieve in the market.
3. Not setting stop-loss and heavily investing can lead to a significant account drawdown, which is technically difficult to handle; this is a major taboo.
4. Opening positions with account profits without setting a break-even point; looking down on small amounts means you won't earn big amounts. Many experienced traders also make such mistakes.
5. Determine the trend. When there are no trend-following positions in hand, do not open counter-trend pullback positions to chase small profits; ensure you are focused on one direction!
6. The stop-loss and take-profit points provided by the teacher for the same entry. 7 profitable trades and 3 stop-loss trades will result in some making money and some losing (liquidation).
7. Set the quantity based on loss and calculate how much to stop loss. For example, if the account is $10,000 and can accept a stop loss of $500 for BTC, the stop loss level is 1,000 points down 0.5 for BTC, and the stop loss level is 500 points down 1 BTC.
8. Trading anxiety leads to loss of appetite and poor sleep. Continuously checking your phone while holding positions, even at a traffic light, is a common issue for novices. If you can't overcome this mental barrier, you won't be able to trade well.
9. Set stop-loss when opening positions; each order should be within an acceptable range. Never get liquidated; you can recover any amount of USDT. It's not about who makes more temporarily but about who can survive in this ever-changing trading market.