Today, January 3, 2025, $2.6 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts will expire, which may cause short-term market volatility. Among them, Bitcoin options are worth $2.15 billion and Ethereum options are worth $453 million. This expiration is not only the first major event after the new year, but it may also determine the price trend of the two major assets in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Options – Can Bulls Prevail?
20,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire today, with a total value of $2.15 billion. Although not as large as last week's 88,537 contracts, this expiration is still worth noting. From the structure of the options market, the number of call options is significantly greater than that of put options, indicating that the overall market sentiment is optimistic.
The number of open contracts for Bitcoin has recently surged to about 120,000, showing traders' strong interest in the future trend of Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, $97,000 is a key resistance level. If Bitcoin can effectively break through this level, the market may usher in a new round of upward trend. However, if the bulls cannot further push the price up, Bitcoin may face correction pressure.
Ethereum Options – Targeting Key Resistance Levels
Although slightly smaller than Bitcoin, Ethereum’s options market still has 1,323,745 contracts expiring soon, worth $453 million. The current put/call ratio is 0.33, indicating that more traders expect Ethereum prices to continue to rise.
Ethereum’s “maximum pain point” (i.e. the maximum possible breakeven for both long and short parties at option expiration) is currently at $3,400. The market may see a move towards this level. However, for Ethereum to break out of the consolidation range and move further up, it needs to break through the key resistance level of $3,600. Such a breakthrough will open up more room for Ethereum to rise.
What will be the future trend of these two giants?
This options expiry will be an important catalyst for the short-term direction of the market.
Bitcoin: If it can hold above $97,000, bulls may further push the price to a higher target. Otherwise, Bitcoin may fall back to lower support levels, testing the resilience of bulls.
Ethereum: If it can successfully break through the key resistance level of $3,600, it may continue its upward momentum and point to a new historical high.
Overall, the volatility that may be brought about by option expiration creates opportunities for short-term traders and also provides a window for long-term investors to observe market psychology.
The options market is always full of variables, but whether it is Bitcoin's $97,000 mark or Ethereum's $3,400 maximum pain point, key points are worth paying close attention to. Is the next big move brewing? Let's wait and see!
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