The likelihood of a Solana ETF listing in the US this year is higher than optimistic forecasts from a prominent betting market, according to Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck.

On January 1, crypto prediction platform Polymarket put the probability of a Solana ETF listing in the US by 2025 at 77%. However, Mr. Sigel criticized the prediction as “undervalued” in a post on the X platform.

Mr. Sigel's optimism reflects the general expectations in the industry that more Crypto ETFs will be listed in the U.S., especially after the election win of President-elect Donald Trump in November. Mr. Trump, with a pro-cryptocurrency stance, has stated he wants to make the U.S. the 'crypto capital of the world.'

Markets predict activity in a way that allows users to trade contracts based on certain events, with prices changing flexibly according to predicted outcomes. The probability of Polymarket listing an ETF has risen to about 84% as of January 2, according to information from their website.

Favorable listing outlook

In June, VanEck and rival 21Shares filed for approval from U.S. regulators to list Solana ETFs in a spot format.

However, in August, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) raised doubts about this plan, citing concerns that SOL could be considered a security rather than a commodity.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs — the only two types of Crypto ETFs permitted to trade in the U.S. — use an atypical 'grantor trust' structure, which is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers believe that the success of Solana ETFs may depend on their ability to comply with this structure.

Industry experts believe that Trump's victory is a favorable signal for more than half of the Crypto ETFs waiting for approval to be listed in the U.S.

Immediately after Trump's victory in the presidential election, Mr. Sigel stated that the likelihood of the U.S. approving the SOL ETF in 2025 is 'very high.'

Optimistic bettors

Polymarket is currently the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with trading volume nearing $2 billion just in December, according to data from Dune Analytics.

In the November U.S. presidential election, betting platforms demonstrated superior accuracy compared to traditional polls, predicting not only Trump's victory but also the success of his party in the House and Senate elections.

Bettors are currently confident that 2025 will be a booming year for the crypto market, with BTC and ETH potentially reaching record highs and many new cryptocurrency ETFs being listed in the U.S.



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