Such a pessimistic thought.

Currently, Bitcoin is greatly influenced by the US stock market, so discussing Bitcoin trends is mostly about discussing the US stock market trends and macroeconomic trends for 2025. The two main factors affecting Bitcoin's market at present are Trump's policies and interest rate cut expectations. The expectations of Trump coming to power have already been fulfilled, and now we need to see the specific policies implemented after January 20 (what specific support for cryptocurrencies will be introduced and when; this factor is currently unpredictable). Therefore, we can only discuss the impact of interest rate cut expectations on the market for now. So how does this specifically affect Bitcoin's market? The timing of the first interest rate cut is quite important; the expectations from the Fed watch have recently fluctuated repeatedly between March, May, and June over the past few days. If you remember, the reason the market peaked in March 2024 was that the macro expectations for interest rate cuts in May and June were directly postponed to September, causing both Bitcoin and altcoin investors to start selling off, as they could not wait that long. The significant change in macro expectations led to a market reversal; actually, it was the same on December 18 of last year, when the dot plot and speech after the Fed meeting directly pushed the first interest rate cut expectation to June. For altcoin investors and Bitcoin holders, the situation is very similar to the macro environment in March 2024 (the first interest rate cut expectation has been postponed to half a year later), which is why the altcoin market dropped 30% and Bitcoin fell 10% after the Fed meeting on the 18th. I think this line of thinking is sufficient for the first half of the year; as for the second half of 2025, we will talk about it later. If the American economy does not collapse, it is highly likely that the market will peak in the fourth quarter. I don't think it will replicate 2017 or 2021, mainly because the macro environment is different. As for the peak price, I don't see it going as high as 200,000; I still maintain the view from 2023 that a range between 110,000 and 150,000 is more reasonable. Whether it reaches this range in the first half of the year or the second half, I will withdraw most of my positions. If significant negative factors delay it from reaching above 110,000, we will discuss that later. Here, we are just sharing thoughts, not making wishes.