1/3 BTC Market Analysis $BTC

First, let's look at the position of the market. Currently, the rebound is gradually approaching the high-position chip area. It has not been able to break through 100k before, so we can only view it from the perspective of a rebound, not a reversal. The current market sentiment and volume are both insufficient, making it unwise to chase prices easily.

From the trend perspective, we can choose the direction using a long-term cycle. Currently, the medium term is basically operating in a downward trend. Any chips from the previous decline are resistance during the rise, and shorting is in line with the trend. Our entry point should be narrowed down to 30 min - 1 h, where smaller levels form a top and begin to reverse. When funds start to flow out, that is our entry opportunity.

Additionally, it is crucial to set strict stop-losses. Once there is effective profit, reduce holdings and set a breakeven point, which completes our entry layout. If there is a stop-loss, we return to the starting point to look for entry opportunities. If the trend meets our expectations, we continuously push up the stop-loss point until we hit take profit or stop-loss. This completes a trade, and subsequent trades can be repeated; this is trend trading.

In the macro market, the Nasdaq fell yesterday, and the price has already retreated below the 30-day moving average. The moving average is starting to turn, which may lead to a period of adjustment. Given the current market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space, it is difficult to develop an independent market trend and may be affected by the US market, leading to further declines.

In summary, the current medium-term trend is downward, looking for shorting opportunities. Smaller levels show bearish structural expectations, combined with capital outflow. High short operations are logical and have relatively high profit and loss ratios.

Trading suggestion:

For those with short positions, continue to hold. For those without short positions, you can lay out short positions at the current price of 97250-97500, with a stop-loss near the dense chip area at 98750, targeting below 95000.