Author | defioasis
Editor | Colin Wu
The year 2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development following the DeFi Summer, with narrative investment opportunities emerging endlessly on-chain. According to the author's observation, with the increasing popularity of the idea that everything can be a Meme and the rapid asset issuance of Pump Fun occupying a mainstream position, Memes can start from 0, and (under the condition of not listing on top CEX) the market cap ceiling in the on-chain space is roughly 1 billion US dollars. For ordinary users, there is already sufficient profit space on-chain, while top CEX has become the last link for on-chain investment exits. Due to the intensifying contradictions between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top CEX often perform poorly; while older coins that have already been listed on top CEX mostly struggle, lacking team motivation or failing to keep up with market changes, remaining in a state of waiting for unlocking and lying flat.
This article is mainly based on predictions regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on the on-chain segmented track, and is merely a shallow prediction by the author, not intended as any investment advice, but for consideration only.
1. The DEX/CEX monthly volume ratio will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to The Block data, DEX trading volume exceeded 320 billion US dollars in December 2024, setting a historical high for a single month, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64% in December 2024, an increase compared to 9.55% in December 2023, and the monthly trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX reached a peak of 13.86%. With continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX, the adoption of on-chain trading may accelerate; the popularity of the Meme track and the wealth effect are important factors driving users from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market cap of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed at least the peak period of NFTs, and one AI Agents token will have a market cap exceeding 10 billion.
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging one after another. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only been a matter of months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks in development and operation on the market, including ai16z - Eliza, Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro - Zerepy, and Dolion Framework, especially ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework have already formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-tokens of AI Agents rapidly being introduced into the market.
CoinGecko data shows that the total market value of AI Agents related tokens currently reaches 12 billion US dollars, among which Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acts as a trading pair token similar to SOL for the Solana network on the Base network, driving the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent token, making it the highest market cap AI Agents related token, reaching 3.5 billion US dollars.
3. It is expected that there will be 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun launching.
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a launchpad for quickly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins being launched every day. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit and launch similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin track is gradually growing, with everything becoming Meme, and the demand for segmentation becoming increasingly strong, gradually evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focusing on AI Agents launches and Pump Science focusing on DeSci. AI Agents have become a multi-billion track, and DeSci has also emerged with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset issuance under different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more segmented tracks in the future.
4. At least 5 native tokens of the Base ecosystem will go live on Binance spot.
As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spot trading for the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base will be more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and Farcaster series, among which the ecological market cap of the Virtuals series has approached 5 billion US dollars, ranking as a leader in Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on the listing of top exchanges; it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot goes live on Binance.
As a public chain under the US compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open up the fiat channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the official inauguration of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base are likely to be the first exchanges and networks to enjoy the dividends. Furthermore, with Base leader Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team in October to lead Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic vision should further increase.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities reaching a market cap of over 1 billion.
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community engagement and user attention through a massive HYPE token airdrop and wealth effect. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed 2 billion USDC, equivalent to a ranked fifteenth exchange; the total market value of the platform token HYPE once exceeded 10 billion US dollars, with FDV exceeding 30 billion US dollars.
From the development path of CEX, especially for relatively young CEX, most started with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the real brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards introduce the possibility of exclusive asset inclusion, which is a capability that previous on-chain exchanges attempting to transition from contracts to spot trading did not possess. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance. In the face of the difficulty and high costs of listing on top CEX, starting with a spot auction on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki - Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market cap and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot trading are concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding 100 million USD in market cap. Under the high market cap of HYPE, pulling up requires more funds; collaborations between the platform and certain excellent exclusive projects to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets are clearly more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increase in Hyperliquid's trading volume and reputation.
