In contrast to the recent downturn in the secondary market, the primary market was as lively as the Double Holiday. On-chain AIs took over one after another, web2 and web3 rarely maintained a consistent frequency, the DEX platform Hyperliquid successfully broke out of the circle, with a net inflow of funds exceeding US$2 billion. Wall Street has accelerated its layout in the RWA sector, and related ecological construction has been carried out one after another.
Let's talk about AI first. I think the underlying logic of AI's long-term narrative comes from the development bottleneck of the current real society. After the third technological revolution, there have been few technological changes that subvert the times, and AI has brought the possibility of a new round of technological revolution. Even if it is just a possibility, the current technological pioneers are already flocking to it.
Basically, all major internet companies in the traditional market are developing their own AI products. This is related to industrial algorithms. Additionally, efforts to implement AI elements in areas such as healthcare, education, and practical life are ongoing tirelessly. The hype around AI in the crypto market is even more pronounced, with AI pets, AI memes, AI agents, etc. The iterations are rapid, and the narratives are abundant. Recently popular targets include ai16z, eliza, etc.
Hyperliquid's successful breakout is not a coincidence. The contract order flow is traded entirely on-chain, with a total user count currently at 290,000 and a total trading volume approaching 600 billion USD. The platform token HYPE has increased by 18 times within a month of being launched, with a market cap exceeding 8 billion USD. The future of the crypto market is decentralized. If the collapse of DEXX due to theft is a dark corner of this market, then Hyperliquid is the new brilliant firework in the DEX market.
The reason why the RWA concept can have a future and will receive extreme attention from capital is its realistic reference to crypto-targeted assets. The digitization of physical assets is essentially the specific application of macro life in the crypto market, right? The valuation model for such crypto assets is significantly more accurate than any financing estimates, with popular related concepts like ondo, rsr, and aave.
If time permits in the future, I (San Shu) will provide detailed breakdowns of the specific sectors mentioned above. The crypto market resembles a makeshift stage, where seasoned investors in the secondary market struggle to break even while new investors in the primary market repeat the joyful feelings of the first batch of crypto pioneers from the previous bull market. While many old players are rooted in the Ethereum ecosystem, new capital is actively entering public chains like Solana and Sui, which are thriving. The market opportunities are already highly correlated with the sectors involved.
On the last trading day of last year, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 5.3 million USD, and Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 35.93 million USD. Overall, the capital flow for Ethereum aligns with the current market situation. Institutions and large investors are gradually choosing the Ethereum ecosystem as the target for the next stage and are actively participating in the ecosystem.
Other data points will be observed after the recent US stock market normalizes. The last core data is the market cap ratio of Bitcoin, which briefly rose from 50% to 57% before continuing to decline. There is a further downward logic in the trend. The staircase-like decline in Bitcoin's market cap ratio is also a signal that the bull market is in progress. The short-term market has begun to rebound from earlier panic, and there are no clear reversal signals in the current indicators. For the short term, everything is pending; just focus on layout and positions within the framework.
BTC: The bullish momentum of Bitcoin has slightly recovered. From a technical perspective, the upward momentum is not very strong. Recently, we should focus on the pressure level at 100,000, with support around 93,000. The trend is gradually shifting upwards from a volatile downtrend. It is expected that the Bitcoin market will operate within the next two weeks, with opportunities gradually shifting to Ethereum and other quality altcoin sectors.
ETH: The technical support for Ethereum at 3300 points has never dropped below that level. It has remained very close and held up. The bullish technical outlook is stronger than Bitcoin, and currently, the sentiment is relatively optimistic. The key market focus is in the mid to late part of this month. If there are opportunities to buy in the short term, we will take them; if not, we will proceed as is.
The logic given earlier for other altcoins is already very clear. Those that perform well can ride through the entire bull market cycle, while others can be discussed in the comments.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 70 for the day.
Lastly, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
