1. The role of Trump and the US in global trends
Donald Trump, if he implements a Bitcoin strategic reserve fund, will act as a 'catalyst' for changing the global perception of Bitcoin.
• The importance of the US in the global economy:
As the world's largest economy with a strong influence on financial policy, any decision made by the US creates a ripple effect on other countries.
• Japan, referred to as a 'little brother', has the potential to learn from the US as the two countries have a close relationship in trade, finance, and technology.
• The incentive from game theory:
• In game theory, when a major country publicly accumulates Bitcoin, other countries will feel pressured to follow suit to maintain competitiveness, especially in the context of global currencies facing instability from inflation and public debt.
• This holds true not only for developed countries like Japan but also presents an opportunity for developing nations to strengthen their financial position.
2. Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset
Comparison with gold
• Scarcity:
Like gold, Bitcoin has a limited supply (21 million coins) and cannot be created further. This makes it an ideal anti-inflation tool.
• Flexibility and ease of transfer:
Unlike gold, Bitcoin can be traded across borders in minutes at low cost, aligning with the digitization trend of the modern world.
Advantages over other reserve assets
• Independence from politics:
Bitcoin is not controlled by any country or organization, reducing the risk of being blocked or seized like traditional assets (foreign reserves, government bonds).
• Long-term value preservation potential:
In the context of fiat currencies increasingly depreciating due to inflation, Bitcoin stands out as a store of value.
3. Major challenges
Price volatility
• Bitcoin's price volatility remains the biggest barrier to using it as a reserve asset. Countries find it hard to rely on an asset that can lose 20-30% of its value in just a few weeks.
• For example: The price of Bitcoin once dropped from 69,000 USD to below 16,000 USD during the 2021-2022 period.
Lack of legal and management basis
• Currently, many countries lack a clear legal framework to manage Bitcoin.
• Countries will need to build technical, legal, and financial infrastructure to safely store and trade this digital asset.
Market manipulation potential
• If major countries accumulate Bitcoin, they may inadvertently or deliberately manipulate the price, posing risks to both the market and the global economy.
Lack of practical applications
• Unlike gold (which can be used in industrial production) or oil (the driving force for the economy), Bitcoin is currently mainly used as a speculative tool or store of value.
4. Potential impact on developing countries
Bitcoin could be a 'financial weapon' for developing countries, helping them:
• Protecting the economy from the depreciation of the domestic currency.
• Attracting international investment through pioneering the adoption of blockchain technology.
• Reducing dependence on traditional financial systems, which are dominated by major countries like the US.
5. Potential realization in the near future
• The year 2025 could be a turning point:
With Bitcoin's price surpassing 100,000 USD, many countries and major financial institutions will begin to seriously consider the role of Bitcoin in strategic reserves.
• Pioneer countries:
• Smaller or developing countries, such as El Salvador and Bhutan, will continue to play a testing role.
• Major countries like Japan and those in the Middle East may participate more cautiously, waiting for the US or another major power to take the lead.
Conclusion
The prospect of Bitcoin becoming a global strategic reserve asset is ambitious but not without basis. If Trump truly implements this plan, it will mark a significant milestone, prompting a race to accumulate Bitcoin among countries. However, challenges regarding price volatility, legal frameworks, and practical applicability need to be addressed to turn this prospect into reality.
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