Article Author: Echo, MetaEra
Source: MetaEra
It's time for year-end summaries again. The 2024 market has been complex, with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the halving event arriving as expected, prices soaring, hash rates hitting new highs, ecosystems emerging, and political landscapes shifting, with continuous positive developments... Numerous factors are driving BTC to ignite a global investment frenzy, with prices repeatedly setting new highs, breaking the 100,000 USD mark, and Google trends index surging more than double compared to last year, opening a spotlight moment! For the entire crypto industry, 2024 is a milestone year. Every significant event marks the trajectory of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market's future.
This report is structured chronologically, with events as nodes, as MetaEra reviews those key moments that influence Bitcoin's fate. Let us step into the major events of Bitcoin in 2024 and feel the glory and hardships of this year.
Crypto Opening Moment: Bitcoin Spot ETF Approved
On January 10, the US financial stage witnessed a milestone change — the approval of the BTC ETF. This allows US-listed companies, pension funds, and various institutional investors to legitimately step into this mysterious domain through this financial tool, marking the beginning of a new era of publicly purchasing and holding Bitcoin.
In April, the Hong Kong subsidiaries of Huaxia, Bosera, and Harvest Fund applied for the first batch of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products, which were officially approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Subsequently, on April 30, these highly anticipated products were officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The market cheers the launch of ETFs, with crypto market products increasing in depth, a wave of institutional entries, and a jubilant atmosphere as past doubts turn into a chase for value storage. Traditional capital floods into the crypto world, and crypto investments grow increasingly close to the Web 2.0 market.
In the short term after the news broke, the overall performance of the Bitcoin market remained stable, without significant fluctuations. Many questioned the ETF's sluggish actions, with conspiracy theories emerging, claiming 'fluff without substance.' All this uncertainty, like a magnet, attracts countless investors and industry observers, becoming the most suspenseful chapter in Bitcoin's future development path. Amid the undercurrents, Bitcoin adheres to the 'time machine theory,' waiting for new momentum, using time to prove its worth.
Image Source: SoSoValue
Bitcoin Halving: A Critical Turning Point of Destiny
On April 20, Bitcoin underwent a halving at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins.
Typically, after the halving, the price of BTC tends to rise, as the previous three halvings have invariably led to new highs. Many investors share the same expectation for this halving in April 2024, believing it will undoubtedly be a new driving force for the coin's price after ETF actions.
However, considering the price after several months post-halving, Bitcoin's price did not immediately reach a new historical high after a short period of minor retracement. Instead, it took off significantly only after a series of events including the halving, conferences, political elections, regulatory changes, and industry strategic reserves. Based on the halving mechanism and past halving history, the impact of halving is considerable, usually leading to market volatility and increasing speculation in the crypto domain; reshaping the mining landscape, and reducing the profitability points for miners; stimulating technological innovation and community development within the blockchain ecosystem. The halving event may also hedge against inflation and enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as a long-term investment asset.
The above information indicates that while halving helps reinforce Bitcoin's narrative of scarcity, macroeconomic factors can also significantly impact Bitcoin's price. The mysterious force of Bitcoin cannot be accurately predicted based on history; at every stage, it refreshes people's understanding, and we cannot stop its progress. As Binance CEO Richard Teng said: We need to look further ahead and view market performance from the perspective of market cycles. We should not be anxious about when the bulls and bears will arrive but focus on the long-term trends and fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin always unexpectedly shoots to the moon amidst repeated doubts and moments of calm and anxiety, achieving legendary price increases. We just need to wait; Bitcoin remains great.
BTC ecosystem basic service providers: miners, strong confidence vs survival crisis?
From the miners' perspective, the landscape of Bitcoin mining in 2024 is rapidly changing. The halving has led to a drop in hash prices, taking the economic returns on a rollercoaster ride. Furthermore, the development of inscriptions and runes in the first half of the year has quietly changed the main source of miners' earnings, resembling an ecological awakening. In the past, mining relied solely on traditional block rewards, but as these new phenomena sprouted up like mushrooms after rain, the focus of earnings has gradually shifted to infrastructure service gas fees. For example, during Bitcoin's fourth halving period, transaction fees surged significantly, with Rune tokens paying high fees on halving blocks, becoming an important component of miners' income. According to statistics, since January 1, 2024, standard financial transactions accounted for 67% of total miner fee income, Runes accounted for 19%, and BRC-20 and Ordinals transactions combined accounted for 14%, with gas fee income steadily increasing.
Against this backdrop, the role of miners is undergoing profound changes. They are no longer merely simple block producers but rather serve as infrastructure service providers within the Bitcoin ecosystem. With the network resources and infrastructure advantages accumulated through mining, miners can provide services for various transactions and earn gas fees. This transformation deeply integrates miners into various aspects of the Bitcoin ecosystem, linking their fate closely with the entire ecosystem while exploring a more sustainable path in the new economic model.
Bitcoin Conference: The Origin of Market Dynamics
By mid-year, on July 27, the Bitcoin 2024 conference took place in Nashville, where known politicians like Trump and Robert F. Kennedy took the stage, their statements and proposals regarding Bitcoin acted like heavy bombs, creating ripples in the conference venue and the entire cryptocurrency industry.
Trump delivered a nearly one-hour speech, although an hour later than scheduled, tens of thousands of attendees were still enthusiastic. In his speech, Trump fully acknowledged BTC's status as a scarce and hedging asset, affirming that BTC will surpass gold to become the world's largest asset category, and emphasized that the US must maintain its position as a cryptocurrency superpower, also stressing that if elected, he would fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler who has been impeding cryptocurrency development from a compliance standpoint, and made 13 major commitments regarding cryptocurrency.
● On the first day, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman.
● If elected, establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for the US government.
● The US government will retain 100% of its holdings.
● Bitcoin will fly to the moon.
● Never sell your Bitcoin.
● Bitcoin may one day surpass gold in market value.
● I reiterate my commitment to reducing Ross Ulbricht's sentence.
● There will never be a CBDC on my watch if elected president.
● Bitcoin and cryptocurrency will soar in unprecedented ways.
● Bitcoin does not threaten the US dollar; it is the current US government that threatens the dollar.
● The US will become the global cryptocurrency capital and the world's Bitcoin superpower.
● Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government coercion and control.
● I assure the Bitcoin community that on the day of my inauguration, the anti-cryptocurrency movement of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will end.
Whether it is his personality or to amuse the audience, he clearly improvised at the end: 'I wish everyone has fun, whether it's Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, or other things.' Taking advantage of the conference's momentum, he drew a significant vote for his political blueprint.
Like a star-studded political and financial gala. The market price performance during and after the Bitcoin conference sometimes soared to new heights; other times it briefly retraced to gather strength. The conference served as a massive vortex of crypto information, where various technical innovations, policy interpretations, and market trend information related to Bitcoin converged and then spread like ripples throughout the entire cryptocurrency domain. Discussions within the industry about politicians' statements and actions are varied, eagerly awaiting the test of time.
Bull Market Outlook: Favorable Impact of the US Election
On November 6, 14:27, the dust settled on the US presidential election, and Trump emerged as the final winner, at 78 years old, returning to the White House with the support of crypto forces.
Trump's victory and his subsequent series of pro-crypto measures herald significant positive impacts on Bitcoin's price. After the election results were confirmed, the Bitcoin market reacted first, with investors pouring into the market based on strong expectations of favorable future policies.
After taking office, he announced multiple measures to benefit the crypto industry, including plans to repeal the SAB 121 Act after assuming office on January 20 next year, clearing the way for traditional financial institutions to enter and promote the institutional development of crypto assets, thus providing a legal and compliant channel for significant potential capital to flow into the Bitcoin market, expanding Bitcoin's market capacity and capital depth; following the commitments made at the Bitcoin conference, he intends to repeal the former SEC chairman's appointment and appoint crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as the next SEC chairman on his first day in office, sending a strong signal of regulatory relaxation to the market and boosting investor confidence; promoting the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve to influence the market from a supply and demand perspective, retaining Bitcoin ownership and expanding expectations, reducing sell pressure on Bitcoin in the market while enhancing its attractiveness as a strategic asset; planning to halt government sales of Bitcoin and using Bitcoin as an investment holding asset; his companies are also negotiating with the Intercontinental Exchange regarding the proposed acquisition of cryptocurrency exchange Bakkt, injecting new vitality and space for imagination into Bitcoin's trading ecosystem, attracting more investors to participate, indirectly aiding in price increases.
Bitcoin is riding the wave of US policy, charging forward on the trajectory of rising prices. Its future development space and potential seem increasingly vast under the intertwining of these positive factors. Welcome to the new era of cryptocurrency propelled by Trump!
New political landscape: Core political figures express varied statements, government reserves entering the market.
Driven by historic market surges, some countries are considering establishing national Bitcoin reserves. We are delighted to witness a significant trend: more and more political figures are beginning to recognize its value.
US presumptive President Donald Trump stated that he will make the US the world's cryptocurrency capital, proposing not to sell the Bitcoin held by the US government, but to hold it as a strategic reserve asset for the long term.
Russian President Putin signed a digital currency taxation law, classifying digital currencies as property, exempting mining and sales from VAT, requiring mining infrastructure operators to report to tax authorities, and personal income tax based on actual physical income; Putin also emphasized at the forum that no one can ban Bitcoin and other electronic payment methods, as they are new technologies that will continue to develop.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Reorganizing the Web3 and cryptocurrency policy departments, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party disbanded the existing Web3 project team and established a dedicated department within the party's digital society promotion department, led by the former secretary-general of the Web3 project team, but the new department's responsibilities are yet to be clarified.
The State Council of South Korea passed the (Virtual Asset User Protection Law) executive order, effective July 19, requiring virtual asset service providers to secure user deposits through banks and granting them the right to suspend user cash and virtual asset withdrawals based on reasonable grounds.
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele proposed to lease the country's volcano to miners for sustainable Bitcoin mining, using geothermal energy to reduce mining costs. Previously, the country successfully mined Bitcoin worth approximately 46 million USD using geothermal energy.
Argentine President Javier Milei advocates separating cryptocurrency from state control, criticizing central bank digital currencies, promoting private management of cryptocurrency, and warning against government overreach.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced support for asset tokenization commercialization plans, gathering financial institutions from multiple countries to conduct industry trials, encouraging the establishment of industry standards to promote the commercialization and promotion of tokenized capital market products.
Suriname presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe promised that if elected in 2025, she would make Bitcoin legal tender, gradually replacing the Surinamese dollar, planning to dissolve the central bank, cut taxes, privatize public services, and use Bitcoin's transparency to combat corruption, stating that Bitcoin is key to rebuilding the country's financial infrastructure.
Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected.
The various efforts and statements from these political figures indicate that Bitcoin is set to occupy a more significant position in the future financial landscape; it is steadily entering the grand vision of the global economic system, like a shining new star, attracting the attention of the political realm.
Regulatory Winds of Change: Institutions Coming in Droves
As the regulatory environment becomes more open and transparent in 2024, the crypto industry is entering a new era. Under this wave, the 'double repair of currency and stock' model is gradually becoming a new favorite among listed companies, with many enterprises incorporating Bitcoin into their asset strategic reserves. Among them, Tesla and MicroStrategy are standout examples, achieving 'diamond hands victory' with their steadfast holding strategies. The MSTR stock price surged from around 194 USD to nearly 500 USD in just about a month, an increase of approximately 150%; in the Hong Kong stock market, the 'twin stars' Boya and Meitu, two Bitcoin giants, hold 2641 and 940 BTC respectively; the first cryptocurrency exchange stock, Coinbase, reported a total profit of 804 million USD, with a price-earnings ratio of about 7.88 times.
Such effects have attracted more listed companies to follow suit. On November 19, Nano Labs Ltd (Nasdaq: NA) announced its intention to allocate part of its remaining cash flow to Bitcoin, holding it as a long-term strategic reserve asset; on the same day, US-listed company Genius Group Limited (GNS) announced it had invested 10 million USD to purchase 110 BTC at an average price of 90,932 USD; niche e-commerce platform focusing on spirits and beverages, US-listed company LQR House Inc. (LQR) announced its board approved purchasing 1 million USD worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy; on November 20, US-listed biopharmaceutical company Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP) board approved purchasing 1 million USD worth of Bitcoin as a reserve asset; on the same day, another US-listed company Hoth Therapeutics (HOTH) announced its board approved purchasing up to 1 million USD worth of Bitcoin... It is evident that many listed companies have fully recognized BTC's value storage function and stock price boosting effect, all joining this 'BTC strategic reserve race.'
Image Source: HODL15Capital
BTC Ecosystem: Lying dormant through the winter, waiting for the flowers to bloom.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is like an accelerated version of the cryptocurrency circle, from the birth of the Ordinals protocol at the end of 2022 to a brief NFT boom at the beginning of 2023, followed by a short bear market in the middle of 2023, where everyone actively participated in various spaces discussing the future, and then the BRC20 ignited the second bull market climax. As we entered the autumn of 2023, the market returned to silence, followed by the third climax in early 2024, and has since been quietly brewing. In just two years, it has traversed the entire bull and bear cycle of the cryptocurrency circle over the past 42 years.
Over the past year, Bitcoin's market dominance has significantly increased from 45.27% to 56.81%. The spot ETF holdings have surged, creating a new market centered around Bitcoin as the core asset, with ETFs and US stocks as channels for capital inflow and US-listed companies as vehicles, highlighting the necessity of developing its ecosystem and improving capital efficiency. In terms of Layer 2, 77 projects have made moves in the past three years, and in the first half of 2024, some old projects have seen trading volume and token prices rise due to the ETF boom, with various solutions emerging, totaling a locked value of 3 billion USD, which is expected to grow significantly in the future. New execution standards have appeared in the Layer 1 execution layer, which had seen steady growth but has not sustained momentum. Among other infrastructures, interoperability solutions like bridges and WBTC are mainstream, with more solutions expected to launch; concerning security layers, interoperability may threaten asset security, and related security solutions like Babylon's Bitcoin timestamp and staking protocols have emerged, along with new technologies in data availability layers (DA layers), like Nubit, releasing Bitcoin's potential value.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently in a relatively discordant position. However, significant progress has been made compared to last year. The Bitcoin ecosystem will not miss out on a roaring bull market; there are still many narratives waiting to be explored. The previous dormancy and sedimentation have accumulated enough strength. A large number of innovative projects are on the way.
Witnessing history: Bitcoin broke 100,000 for the first time, where to next?
On December 5, around 10:30 AM, BTC price surged above 100,000 USD, with a nearly 5% increase in 24 hours, marking Bitcoin's anticipated first breakthrough of the 100,000 USD mark. Meanwhile, Ethereum surpassed 3800 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL rose above 230 USDT, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to 2%.
Image Source: OKX
The media effect triggered by Bitcoin's price exceeding 100,000 has successfully brought Crypto and decentralization into the mainstream public's view. It has made people reflect on its past, from its humble beginnings at birth to its current prominent status; its price rise is like a grand legend. If we start counting from that iconic Pizza Day, it has already endured sixteen years of baptism.
It gradually moves from the margins to the center. When Bitcoin first broke the 1 USD mark, many might not have anticipated its astonishing potential; and when it crossed important thresholds like 100 USD and 1000 USD, the entire world took notice. Now, breaking 100,000 USD has pushed Bitcoin to an entirely new height.
Finally, I wish Bitcoin can continue to write miracles, and I wish those of us who believe in Bitcoin can create miracles.
