10x Research and CEO and Head of Research, Markus Thielen, have recently taken a more cautious stance on Bitcoin (BTC), prompting a reevaluation of market conditions.
Has Bitcoin peaked? Analysts detect worrying signals.
In a market update released on December 29, 2024, the company acknowledged the resilience of cryptocurrencies; however, emerging technical patterns suggest the market may be entering a new phase. 10x Research is a digital asset research service catering to asset managers, fund managers, and cryptocurrency service providers. Over the past two weeks, 10x Research has questioned whether the Bitcoin bull market has peaked.
Analyzing the history of previous bull markets, including 2017 and 2019, shows a recurring trend: early month rallies followed by profit-taking at the end of the month. This behavior often signals later stages of a bull market. In December 2024, a "shooting star" candlestick pattern—a bearish indicator characterized by a long upper wick and small body—was observed. This pattern has historically signaled market peaks, notably in December 2017 and November 2021.
Thielen explains that the shooting star pattern is an important technical signal “acting as a bearish reversal signal, indicating that buying pressure is weakening and the possibility of a price reversal.”
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $108,364 on December 16, 2024, before falling to a closing level of $92,000. Analysts at 10x Research emphasize the importance of the support range of $90,000–92,000. A break below this zone could lead to a significant drop. "While there may be a rally in early January 2025, potentially leading up to Trump's inauguration, another profit-taking wave at the end of the month could confirm that the shooting star in December 2024 signals at least an interim peak," Thielen's report explains.
Despite bearish signals, 10x Research and Thielen maintain that the current bull market is not over yet. However, entering 2025, investors should expect increased volatility, with the potential for strong rallies and sell-offs shaping the year.
Another outlook states 'The Bitcoin bull run has completed 80%'
10x Research emphasizes that mastering risk management will be key to thriving in an ever-changing market landscape. As Bitcoin ventures into a seemingly more challenging trading area, investors must closely monitor technical indicators and maintain their discipline. Furthermore, there are differing viewpoints among various researchers and analysts. The X account Crypto Birb, from The Birb Nest, a trading education hub, fundamental analysis, and live trading tactics, claims that the bull run has ended over three-quarters.
“Bitcoin will peak at $225,000 or more in June 2025,” Crypto Birb wrote. “The Bitcoin bull run has completed 80%. The next 20% is the most exciting. The real altcoin season will happen after BTC peaks. Don’t screenshot this. Realize profits and run before 2025 ends. 2026 is a bear market (down 80-90%). (Major release on December 27 - marking day).”
An X account named Tutor claims that the current Bitcoin bull run is at a grand finale stage. “We are in Bitcoin's third consecutive bull year, historically this is the final act of a bull run. The challenge of 2025 will be: Emotion-driven decisions (staying in the market thinking it will rise to $1 million considering FA developments) versus rational decisions (timely exiting BTC based on charts),” Tutor explains.
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