2025.1.1 Market Signal Scan
1. Market Liquidity
In the past 24 hours, liquidity in the crypto market has further decreased. The supply of USDT has decreased from 137.84 billion to 137.44 billion, a reduction of 400 million; the supply of USDC has increased from 43.78 billion to 43.95 billion, an increase of 170 million. The combined supply of USDT and USDC has decreased by 230 million.
2. ETF Capital Flow
The four Bitcoin ETFs, FBTC + ARKB + BITB + BTC, which have strong indicative functions, saw a net inflow of $38.4 million yesterday, compared to a net outflow of $244.5 million on the previous trading day.
The three Ethereum ETFs, FETH + ETHW + ETH, which have strong indicative functions, saw a net inflow of $41.6 million yesterday, compared to a net outflow of $34.2 million on the previous trading day.
If the buying of Bitcoin ETFs is only showing signs of recovery, then the buying of Ethereum ETFs has clearly sent out a recovery signal.
3. Market Leverage
The leverage rate for Bitcoin has further decreased, and its total holdings on the entire network have dropped below 600,000 BTC, approaching the lowest level since November 6, 2024.
The total Ethereum holdings on the entire network have decreased from a peak of 6.8417 million ETH yesterday to the current 6.6791 million ETH. Although it remains at a relatively high level since November 6 of last year, it has decreased nearly 10% compared to the highest point of 7.3779 million ETH on December 19 of last year.
4. Market Sentiment
The funding rate for Bitcoin has risen from below 0.01% a few days ago to above 0.01%, while the USDT lending rate on Binance has increased from below 11% during December 23-30 of last year to the current 11.5%. Market sentiment has slightly recovered.
5. US Buying
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remains deeply negative, and US buying is still weak.
How to make money from the crypto circle in 2025!
Mindset
Maintain a calm mindset with BTC regardless of fluctuations; do not panic and ask everywhere after a big drop if the bull market is still there. Enhance your understanding of BTC's trend cycles. This is to keep your mindset stable. Meanwhile, adopt a learning attitude towards new narratives; be open-minded and embrace market changes.
Investment Framework
This is built on a foundational basis, at least you should know the approximate future trend of BTC. Adjust as you go.
Contracts
Years of experience tell you that if you cannot understand Bitcoin contracts and your losses exceed your gains, often facing liquidation, you should just play with spot honestly.
On-chain MEME
The first wave of opening increases is rarely caught by people unless you have coding tools to monitor in real-time and analyze heat promptly; otherwise, you are just providing liquidity for others.
After the second wave of adjustments, the rise can be managed through research and learning from highlights like pnut, ai16z, fartcoin, virtual, etc.
In the third wave, do not gamble on whether it can go to Binance spot; betting on contracts is not meaningful. In a trend, only a few can land on Binance spot. If you don’t believe it, you can research Binance's new listing summaries: you need to have the ability to assess market value; if that fails, you can strictly implement a strategy of doubling the principal and then exiting after making a profit.
Secondary Spot
Mainly based on the two major exchanges, most projects on other exchanges lack structure and are just harvesting money. Although there is also harvesting on Binance, at least there is some structure. You can take advantage of a trend.
Position Allocation
Not just inside the market, but also outside... The only thing to say is don't be greedy, 20% of 10,000 dollars is also a lot. Don't fantasize about achieving everything in one step; to be frank, achieving everything in one step is very difficult, and even if you do, you may not be able to hold it. Unless you tell me you have grasped it and will never come back, then I admire you. But can you really do that, never come back?
Professionally create value; details determine success or failure.
