2025 Year Start of a Bull Market
Crypto Insider, Butcher Dissects the Beef 1/1
One Focus on Global Economic Data and Events:
(1) January 29, 2025, today the probability of not lowering interest rates is 90.4% (be cautious of risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (Today's gold price 2624.63 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.87 (risk of interest rate hike at the end of January)
Two On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 66, Google search trend 29
(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday BTC inflow recovered to 57.15; ETH net inflow recovered to 10,700
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74 EH/s, transaction fee 4.39, gas: 3, S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324 USD
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.001% (normal)
(5) BTC market cap share: 56.8%
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: US stock market correction, institutional ETF dumping, New Year's Day low-volume market
(8) Trading philosophy: Be true to your conscience, nothing exists outside your mind, go with the trend, don't be swayed by price fluctuations!
Today's trading technique: The mountain is high and steep, but only one step to climb! Approaching the end of the adjustment, first establish a bottom position, then gradually correct to a reasonable holding range, keep spot error within 10%, mainstream contract error within 3%, altcoin contract error within 5%
Recent Potential Positive Factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (effective January 3, 16 billion USD)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year (institutions beginning to layout for the new fiscal year)
3. MicroStrategy continues to purchase coins after the holiday (last week purchased 19,400 BTC)
Recent Potential Negative Factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike betrayal (January/March)
2. The US pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-farm payroll data