Bull Market Top Escape Signal Indicator List (Simplified) 1-01

Reject noise and patiently wait, the bull market is still ongoing.

Some thoughts on BTC in 2025:

1. It is expected that BTC will record an annual increase of over 50% in 2025, reaching highs of $180,000 or even higher at $200,000, following the US stock market throughout the year, showing a M-shaped trend, peaking in December before retreating, with a decline of over 47% in 2026.

The equal-weight cryptocurrency index will accelerate after breaking through the 2021 high, with the increases of Ethereum and other mainstream tokens being even more exaggerated.

2. The relative strength of other mainstream altcoins has reached historical lows. I personally believe that in 2025, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Doge will see stronger upward momentum, with some institutions believing this basket of tokens could rise by about 200% to 500%. I am also more optimistic about ETH (I will allocate $500,000 for regular investments starting tomorrow), partly due to the demand for catch-up growth, and partly because with the launch of ETFs or other tools, more funds will flow in, especially with the continuation of trading sentiment surrounding Trump.

3. As the volatility of Bitcoin narrows, it is expected that more institutions and individual investors will allocate this asset. Since 2017, Bitcoin's absolute return rate has been approximately 7000%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.108. In comparison, Tesla's return rate during the same period has been about 2000%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.101, while Nvidia's return rate has been 5600%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.996.

4. Historically, the cycles following Bitcoin halving usually lead to prolonged price increases, often lasting as long as a year (approximately 365 days). This trend suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will be dominated by the residual effects of the 2024 halving event, driving market optimism and pushing prices up. The halving reduces miner rewards, creating supply constraints and increasing demand, thus creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's growth. This effect is expected to last until March-April 2025, providing ample opportunities for investors and traders.