As 2024 approaches its end, Bitcoin's price trend seems to be caught in a 'liquidity gap' dilemma. Although the market attempts to stabilize above the key support level of $94,000, the ongoing pressure from sellers and limited buying power makes it difficult for bulls to organize an effective counterattack. Will the opening trade of 2025 bring new momentum, or will it continue to be immersed in the fluctuations caused by low liquidity? Let’s break it down together.
Current market structure analysis
Key game of the head and shoulders bottom pattern:
Bitcoin's price attracted some buying interest in the range of $91,500 to $93,000, but the key pattern's neck line position ($94,000) has not yet received solid support.
If the daily closing price fails to break above $94,500, the pattern confirmation may push the target price towards $80,000 or even lower at $76,000.
The most ideal reversal scenario for bulls is to break through $100,000, negate the head and shoulders bottom pattern, and return to a mid to long-term upward channel.
Driving force of trading volume:
Over the past week, the price range of Bitcoin has been primarily driven by the futures market, while selling in the spot market remains dominant.
According to data from TRDR.io, most spot trading platforms show signs of liquidation, particularly noticeable during the holiday period.
Liquidity challenges:
Skew describes Bitcoin's current state as a 'blank period of liquidity,' referring to a temporary imbalance of power between buyers and sellers within the price range.
If buying power cannot strengthen further in the range of $91,000–$94,000, prices may test support downwards, seeking lower liquidity areas.
Potential future driving forces
Trading activity after the New Year opening:
The end of the holiday may bring back institutional and retail traders, injecting new trading volume into the market.
Key observation points: If trading volume is concentrated in the spot market, the rebound momentum may be healthier; if still driven by futures, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
Macroeconomic environment and market sentiment:
Macroeconomic policies or Bitcoin-related announcements (such as ETF progress, regulatory trends, etc.) in early 2025 may change market sentiment.
Whether Bitcoin can break through or hold key ranges will be the barometer for the New Year.
Technical and sentiment indicators:
If Bitcoin can stabilize in the range of $94,000 to $94,500 with a significant increase in trading volume, it may trigger bulls to attempt to challenge the range high of $98,800.
Short-term traders: Watch if $94,000 can maintain support; if stabilized, consider gradually positioning towards the $98,800 range. If it drops below $91,000, be cautious of short-term bearish risks.
Mid to long-term investors: If Bitcoin falls to $76,000–$80,000, it may be an entry opportunity, but judgment should be based on market liquidity and macro environment.
New Year, new momentum?
Currently, Bitcoin's price rebound attempt is still in a difficult game phase, with the 'liquidity gap' being the main obstacle for bulls to fight back. However, trading activity after the New Year may become the key to breaking the deadlock. If Bitcoin's price can stabilize above $94,000, it will lay the foundation for bullish positioning in early 2025.
Do you think Bitcoin can break free from the deadlock and surpass $100,000 at the beginning of the New Year? Leave your thoughts and let’s witness together!
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