Article author: Echo, MetaEra

Source: MetaEra

It’s time for year-end summaries again. The market in 2024 is complex and dynamic, with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the halving event occurring as anticipated, leading to soaring prices and record hash rates, the ecosystem thriving, and political landscapes shifting, with continuous good news... Numerous factors are driving BTC to ignite a global investment frenzy, with its price repeatedly hitting new highs, breaking the $100,000 barrier, and the Google Trends index more than doubling compared to last year, marking a shining moment! For the entire crypto industry, 2024 is a milestone year. Every major event is etched with the trajectory of Bitcoin and the future path of the entire cryptocurrency market.

This report follows a timeline of events, with MetaEra detailing the key moments that will influence the fate of Bitcoin. Let's walk together into the major events of Bitcoin in 2024, experiencing the glory and hardships of this year.

The moment of crypto unlocking: Bitcoin spot ETF approved

On January 10, a milestone transformation occurred on the U.S. financial stage - the approval of the BTC ETF. This allowed U.S. listed companies, pension funds, and various institutional investors to confidently enter this mysterious realm through this financial tool, marking the beginning of a new era of publicly buying and holding Bitcoin.

In April, the first batch of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products applied by Huaxia, Bosera, and Harvest Fund's subsidiaries was officially approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and on April 30, these highly anticipated products were proudly listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The market is cheering for the launch of ETFs, depth in crypto market products is increasing, institutions are entering in large numbers, and past doubts have shifted towards a pursuit of value storage, with traditional capital flooding into the crypto realm, making crypto investment increasingly akin to the Web 2.0 market.

In the short term following the announcement, the overall performance of the Bitcoin market remained stable, with no significant fluctuations. Many questioned the ETF's weak actions, with conspiracy theories emerging from institutions, with the narrative of 'making things look good without doing substantial work' echoing throughout. All these uncertainties, like a magnet, attracted the attention of countless investors and industry observers, becoming the most suspenseful chapter in Bitcoin's future development. Amidst the undercurrents, Bitcoin steadfastly adheres to the 'time machine theory', waiting for new momentum to prove its value over time.

Image source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Halving: A pivotal turning point

On April 20, Bitcoin underwent a halving at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins.

Typically, after a halving, the price of BTC tends to rise, as evidenced by the previous three halvings, all of which led to new highs. Many investors have similar expectations for the upcoming halving in April 2024, believing it will undoubtedly be a new driving force for the price following the ETF actions.

However, considering the price a few months after the halving, Bitcoin's price experienced a slight pullback before not immediately reaching new historical highs. Instead, it took off only after a series of actions, including the halving, conferences, political elections, regulatory changes, and industry strategic reserves. From the halving mechanism and past halving histories, the impact of halving is considerable, often leading to market fluctuations and increasing speculative activities in the crypto space; reshaping the mining industry and decreasing miners' profit points; stimulating technological innovation and community development within the blockchain ecosystem. The halving event may also hedge against inflation, enhancing Bitcoin's attractiveness as a long-term investment asset.

The above information indicates that while the halving helps strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity, macroeconomic factors will also have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin's mysterious power cannot be accurately predicted according to history; it refreshes people's cognition at every stage, and we cannot halt its progress. As Binance CEO Richard Teng stated: we need to look further ahead and consider market performance from the perspective of market cycles. We should not be anxious about when bulls and bears will arrive but focus on the long-term trends and fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin always surprises you, soaring to the moon, achieving mythical gains during moments of doubt and anxiety. We just need to wait; Bitcoin remains great.

BTC ecosystem's basic service providers: Miners, strong confidence vs survival crisis?

From the perspective of miners, the landscape of Bitcoin mining in 2024 is changing dramatically. As the halving leads to a decrease in hash prices, the economic returns have been on a roller coaster ride. Moreover, developments in inscriptions and runes early in the year have quietly shifted the primary source of income for miners, akin to an ecological enlightenment. In the past, mining relied solely on traditional block rewards for sustenance, but with these emerging facets sprouting like mushrooms after rain, the main focus of income has gradually shifted towards infrastructure services and Gas fees. Taking the fourth halving of Bitcoin as an example, transaction fees surged significantly, with Rune tokens paying high fees at the halving block, becoming a crucial part of miners' income. Statistics show that since January 1, 2024, standard financial transactions have accounted for 67% of overall miner fee income, Runes for 19%, and BRC-20 and Ordinals transactions combined for 14%, while the proportion of Gas fee income is increasing daily.

Against this backdrop, the role of miners is undergoing profound transformation. They are no longer merely simple block producers but have become infrastructure service providers within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Leveraging the network resources and infrastructure advantages accumulated through mining, miners can provide services for various transactions and earn Gas fees. This shift deeply integrates miners into every aspect of the Bitcoin ecosystem, intertwining their fate with the entire ecosystem while exploring a more sustainable development path in the new economic model.

Bitcoin Conference: The source of market movements

By mid-year, on July 27, the Bitcoin 2024 conference took place in Nashville, where notable politicians such as Trump and Robert F. Kennedy took the stage, making statements and proposals regarding Bitcoin that acted like heavy bombs, creating ripples throughout the conference and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Trump delivered a speech lasting nearly an hour, although it was an hour late, tens of thousands of attendees remained enthusiastic. In his speech, Trump fully recognized BTC's status as a scarce asset and safe haven asset, asserting that BTC would surpass gold to become the world's largest asset class, and stated that the U.S. must maintain its superpower status in cryptocurrency, emphasizing that if elected, he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has been an obstacle to the regulatory development of cryptocurrencies, on his first day in office, making 13 major commitments regarding cryptocurrencies.

● On the first day, I will dismiss Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman.

● If elected, I will establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. government.

● The U.S. government will retain its 100%

● Bitcoin will fly to the moon.

● Do not sell your Bitcoin.

● One day Bitcoin may surpass the market value of gold.

● I reaffirm my commitment to mitigate Ross Ulbricht's prison term.

● During my presidency, there will never be a CBDC if I am elected president.

● Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will soar in unprecedented ways.

● Bitcoin does not threaten the dollar; the current U.S. government is the real threat to the dollar.

● The U.S. will become the global cryptocurrency capital and the world's Bitcoin superpower.

● Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and independence not subject to government coercion and control.

● I assure the Bitcoin community that on the day I am inaugurated, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's anti-cryptocurrency campaign will end.

Whether due to his personality or to amuse the audience, he obviously improvised at the end: 'I wish you all have fun, whether it's with Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, or anything else.' Leveraging the conference's momentum, he garnered significant political support for his political blueprint.

Like a star-studded political and financial feast. The price performance during and after the Bitcoin conference fluctuated, sometimes lightly leaping to new highs; at other times, it briefly pulled back, accumulating strength. The conference was like a massive vortex of crypto information, where various technical innovations, policy interpretations, and market trends regarding Bitcoin converged and then spread like ripples throughout the crypto currency field. The opinions and actions of politicians within the industry were also varied, eagerly awaiting the test of time.

Bull market outlook: Positive impact of the U.S. elections

On November 6 at 14:27, the dust settled on the U.S. presidential election, with Trump emerging as the final winner, at 78 years old, returning to the White House with the support of the crypto forces.

Trump's victory and his subsequent series of favorable actions for the crypto industry have had a significantly positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Once the election results were confirmed, the Bitcoin market reacted first, with investors flocking to the market based on strong expectations of favorable future policies.

After its positioning, it announced it would take multiple measures beneficial to the crypto industry, including plans to abolish the SAB 121 Act upon taking office on January 20 next year, clearing obstacles for traditional financial institutions to enter the market to promote the institutional development of crypto assets, thereby providing a legitimate channel for a large influx of potential funds into the Bitcoin market, expanding Bitcoin's market capacity and capital depth; following through on the promise made at the Bitcoin conference, on the first day of his presidency, he plans to dismiss the former SEC chairman and appoint crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as the next SEC chairman, sending a strong signal of regulatory easing to the market, boosting investors' confidence; driving the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, influencing the market from the perspective of supply and demand, retaining Bitcoin ownership while expanding expectations of scale, reducing selling pressure on Bitcoin in the market while increasing its attractiveness as a strategic asset; planning to stop government Bitcoin sales and use Bitcoin as an investment holding asset; his companies are also negotiating with the Intercontinental Exchange regarding the potential acquisition of the crypto exchange Bakkt, injecting new vitality and imaginative space into Bitcoin's trading ecosystem, attracting more investors to participate, indirectly aiding in the price surge.

Bitcoin is riding the wave of U.S. policy, speeding along the path of price increase, and its future development space and potential appear even more vast under this series of positive factors. Welcome to the new era of cryptocurrency propelled by Trump!

New political landscape: Core political figures are expressing varied stances, and government reserves are getting involved.

Driven by the historic market rally, certain countries are considering establishing national Bitcoin reserves. We are pleased to witness a significant trend: an increasing number of political figures are beginning to recognize its value.

U.S. presumptive president Trump stated he will make America the world's cryptocurrency capital, proposing not to sell the Bitcoin held by the U.S. government but to hold it as a strategic reserve asset for the long term.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law taxing digital currencies, classifying digital currencies as property applicable to foreign trade payments, exempting mining and sales from VAT, requiring mining infrastructure operators to report to tax authorities, and individual income tax based on actual income; Putin also emphasized at the forum that no one can prohibit Bitcoin and other electronic payment methods, as they are new technologies that will continue to develop.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Restructuring the Web3 and crypto policy departments, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party disbanded the existing Web3 project group, establishing a special department within the party for digital social advancement, led by the former secretary of the Web3 project group, though the new department's responsibilities remain unclear.

The South Korean State Council has passed the (Virtual Asset User Protection Law) enforcement order, effective July 19, requiring virtual asset service providers to secure user deposits through banks, and they have the right to suspend user cash and virtual asset deposits and withdrawals based on reasonable grounds.

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele proposed renting the country's volcanoes to miners for sustainable Bitcoin mining, utilizing geothermal energy to reduce mining costs. Previously, the country successfully mined Bitcoin worth approximately $46 million using geothermal energy.

Argentinian President Javier Milei advocates separating cryptocurrencies from state control, criticizing central bank digital currencies, promoting private management of cryptocurrencies, and warning against government overreach.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore has announced its support for the commercialization of asset tokenization initiatives, gathering financial institutions from multiple countries to conduct industry trials and encourage the formulation of industry standards to promote the commercialization and promotion of tokenized capital market products.

Surinamese presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe promised that if elected in 2025, Bitcoin would be established as legal tender, gradually replacing the Surinamese dollar, planning to dissolve the central bank, reduce taxes, privatize public services, and utilize Bitcoin's transparency to combat corruption, stating that Bitcoin is key to rebuilding the national financial infrastructure.

Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected.

The various efforts and statements from these political figures signal that Bitcoin is poised to occupy a more significant position in the future financial landscape. It is steadily entering the grand vision of the global economic system, like a shining new star, attracting the attention of political circles.

Change in regulatory winds: Institutions are flocking in

As the regulatory environment becomes more open and transparent in 2024, the crypto industry is entering a new era. In this wave, the 'dual repair of currency and stock' model is gradually becoming the darling of listed companies, with many enterprises including Bitcoin in their asset strategic reserves. Among them, Tesla and MicroStrategy stand out, having achieved 'diamond hands victory' through their steadfast holding strategies, with MSTR's stock price surging from around $194 to nearly $500 in just about a month, an increase of around 150%; in the Hong Kong stock market, the 'twin stars' Bole and Meitu, two Bitcoin giants, hold a staggering 2,641 and 940 BTC respectively; the first publicly listed crypto exchange Coinbase's total profit from BTC reached $804 million, with a price-earnings ratio of around 7.88 times.

Such effectiveness has attracted more publicly listed companies to follow suit. On November 19, Nano Labs Ltd (Nasdaq: NA) announced plans to allocate a portion of its remaining cash flow to Bitcoin and hold it as a long-term strategic reserve asset; on the same day, U.S. publicly listed company Genius Group Limited (GNS) announced it spent $10 million to purchase 110 BTC at an average price of $90,932; niche e-commerce platform specializing in liquor and beverages, U.S. listed company LQR House Inc. (LQR) announced its board approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy; on November 20, biopharmaceutical company Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP) approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as a reserve asset; that day, another U.S. listed company Hoth Therapeutics (HOTH) announced its board approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin... It is evident that many publicly listed companies have fully recognized Bitcoin's value storage functionality and its role in boosting stock prices, joining this 'BTC strategic reserve race.'

Image source: HODL15Capital

BTC Ecosystem: Lying dormant in the winter, waiting for blossoms to bloom

The Bitcoin ecosystem resembles an accelerated version of the crypto world, from the birth of the Ordinals protocol at the end of 2022, to the small surge of NFTs at the beginning of 2023, followed by a brief bear market in the middle of 2023, where everyone was active in various spaces discussing future prospects, then BRC20 ignited a second small bull market surge. Entering the fall of 2023, the market returned to silence, followed by the third surge at the beginning of 2024, and has since been lying dormant and brewing. In just two years, the entire crypto world has experienced the alternation of bull and bear markets of three to four decades.

Over the past year, Bitcoin's market dominance has significantly increased from 45.27% to 56.81%, with a substantial growth in the holdings of its spot ETFs. A new market has fully opened, centering on Bitcoin as the core asset, with ETFs and U.S. stocks as channels for capital inflows, and U.S. publicly listed companies as vehicles, highlighting the necessity of developing its ecosystem and improving capital efficiency. In terms of Layer 2, 77 projects have taken action in the past three years, and in the first half of 2024, some old projects' trading volumes and token prices rose due to the ETF craze, with various solutions emerging, totaling a locked value of $3 billion, which is expected to grow significantly in the future. New execution standards have emerged in the Layer 1 execution layer, with activities having steadily increased but the momentum not persisting. Among other infrastructures, interoperability solutions like bridges and WBTC are mainstream, and more solutions are expected to be launched; in terms of security layers, interoperability may threaten asset security, and relevant security solutions like Babylon's Bitcoin timestamp and staking protocols have emerged, along with new technologies like Data Availability Layer (DA layer), such as Nubit, releasing Bitcoin's potential value.

The Bitcoin ecosystem is still in a relatively disharmonious position. However, compared to last year, there has been significant progress. The Bitcoin ecosystem will certainly not miss the next explosive bull market; there are still many narratives waiting to be explored. The preceding dormancy and sedimentation have already accumulated sufficient strength. A large number of innovative projects are on the way.

Witnessing history: Bitcoin first breaks $100,000, where will it go next?

Around 10:30 AM on December 5, the price of BTC briefly surged to over $100,000, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%, marking Bitcoin's much-anticipated first breakthrough of the $100,000 barrier. At the same time, Ethereum broke through $3,800 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL broke through $230 USDT, with a 24-hour decrease narrowing to 2%.

Image source: OKX

The media effect triggered by Bitcoin's price surpassing $100,000 has allowed Crypto and decentralization to successfully enter the mainstream public's view. People can't help but look back at its past, from its insignificant beginnings to its current proud stature, with its price rise resembling a magnificent legend. Counting from that iconic Pizza Day, it has endured the baptism of sixteen years.

It is gradually moving from the margins to the center. When Bitcoin first broke through $1, perhaps many did not anticipate its incredible potential in the future; when it crossed significant thresholds like $100 and $1,000, the entire world took notice. Now, breaking through $100,000 has pushed Bitcoin to a brand new height.

In the end, I wish Bitcoin can continue to write miracles, and I hope those who believe in Bitcoin can create miracles.