BTC
There have not been substantial changes in the market these days. BTC is still fluctuating between the middle and lower bands of the 4-hour BOLL. This afternoon, the price quickly rose and touched the middle band. From the BOLL formation, it appears to be in a slow downward trend, so the possibility of breaking through the middle band here is low, but upward opportunities cannot be ruled out.
As we approach 2025, the difficult-to-operate December we discussed earlier is about to end. However, I personally believe that the market may not improve at the beginning of January, at least not in the first seven days. Therefore, combining this, we still maintain a cautious bullish viewpoint. Of course, the cost-effectiveness of shorting is not high at the moment. First, the market price has dropped to 92,000, but the amount of liquidation for long positions is only several tens of millions of dollars, while the liquidation amount during the previous rapid decline was at least over 100 million or even a billion. This indicates that further declines do not benefit the main players much. However, rebounds or reversals are not achieved overnight, so the current trend is mainly sideways oscillation, and the narrowing of the BOLL lines is also one proof. Currently, being conservative is the main approach, focusing more on observation than action.
ETH
The trend of ETH is more pronounced compared to BTC. Since the drop from 4,000 to 3,300, the trading volume has not shown a significant increasing trend. Although last week, the ETF showed an inflow trend, the amount was not high. Therefore, the 4-hour BOLL range is getting narrower, which is one of the signs of a potential change in the market. Based on past experience, the market usually undergoes a change within a week, so we still need to be cautious during this period and mainly observe. Once there is an upward trend, we can appropriately chase the rise to catch the market movement.
Summary of 2024 and market predictions for the whole of 2025.
The market in 2024 can be simply summarized as a warming market in the first quarter, mainly due to the approval of the BTC ETF, which brings public good news. The market deteriorates in the second and third quarters, primarily due to the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve leading to a shortage of institutional funds, which puts pressure on cryptocurrencies. Of course, later the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, but it comes a bit late, so it does not yield good results. Then, in November, with Trump’s election, there will be clear good news for the cryptocurrency market, leading to varying degrees of price increases across all cryptocurrencies. However, this increase experienced a shift in early December. The core reasons are, on one hand, the market lacks money in December, and investors have a strong willingness to take profits, while on the other hand, the dot plot predicts two interest rate cuts in 2025, which is below expectations, and this is also the main reason for the recent decline or stagnation in the market.
Throughout the year, my personal assets have experienced a rollercoaster ride. At the beginning of the year, I increased leverage, and my assets hit an all-time high. However, starting from mid to late March, they began to decline until September when there was some improvement. Thanks to my bottom-fishing strategy during this downtrend period, I also achieved good gains. By early December, my assets reached a new high level again. Of course, due to my prior control of risk, this time the drawdown was not significant. Currently, I am mainly still in profit, and I am relatively satisfied with my personal operations.
I believe the market in 2025 is more likely to refer to the crypto market in 2017, meaning that cryptocurrencies will again show an explosive growth trend. I mentioned earlier that there were two reasons why prices did not rise in December. The first will be resolved in January, and the second is that the market has already digested the expectation of interest rate cuts. Coupled with Trump officially taking office in January and the Spring Festival market, I believe cryptocurrencies will experience another rise in mid to late January, reaching a peak around April to May. Then, we can expect a correction from June to August, with a new high reached before October, and the market may turn bearish in November, likely ending the bull market.
Regarding coin prices, I personally referred to many KOLs and research reports from Wall Street institutions. Currently, many see the price around 200,000 as favorable, but considering the actual situation (people may run for the exit early), 150,000 to 160,000 is likely to be the peak of the bull market. There is also a possibility of a spike to 200,000. For me personally, starting to sell at 150,000 is a good choice. I predict that in the subsequent bear market, the price may drop to between 40,000 and 60,000, but this price will depend on 2026 or even 2027.
In specific sectors, I currently believe that ETH will see its dawn in 2025. From the recent market trend, ETH can be seen as the leader among altcoins, and only altcoins can bring substantial sentiment to the market. BTC is more suitable for institutional layouts. Additionally, Ethereum's new round of upgrades will take place in the first quarter, which is also one of the reasons I predict ETH will rise in the first quarter. Of course, altcoin projects will mainly rely on sector rotation; just lay out the corresponding trend projects accordingly.
Another risk point to watch is the possibility of an early end to the bull market. If there is a correction in May to June, I believe the market will likely reach its peak around October. However, if there is no correction in May to June and the market continues to rise, then there is a high probability that the market will directly turn bearish from late June to August.
In this bull market, we must lower our expectations. A 100-fold increase during the bull market in 2017 was commonplace, while a 50-fold increase in the bull market in 2021 was considered very high. I believe this round of the bull market will likely reach only a 10-20 fold increase. Conservatively, we estimate a 10-fold increase, meaning BTC could rise from over 20,000 to 200,000, while altcoins may average a 20-fold increase. Many altcoins have already risen 3-5 times from their lows to current prices, indicating that in the coming market, most coins achieving a 5-fold increase would be considered a relatively high rise, which is something we need to pay close attention to.