Original author: redphone
Compiled by|Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Translator|CryptoLeo (@LeoAndCrypto)
Redphone has always been one of my favorite crypto KOLs; his content output is among the higher quality of the crypto KOLs I follow. In recent years, Redphone writes an annual recap themed '69 Theses,' including a year-long self-reflection and outlook for the crypto industry. Below are this year's 69 statements (with slight adjustments), compiled by Odaily Planet Daily.
3 Crypto themes for 2024
AI intruded into my brain and disrupted my thoughts.
I am a writer, and I have spent 10,000 hours honing my craft. But now, any 10-year-old child on Earth can make Claude write relevant content in seconds. The skill that took me a lifetime to develop has now become a raw commodity. In other words, my life’s work equates to circulating commodities like oil, tape, or rope; what does that make me? Where do I come from? Where am I going? I am still trying to figure that out, and I will delve deeper in the following text.
'The ultimate big bad' is dead.
With the election in November, Americans chose Trump (the orange man, note: orange specifically refers to Trump's skin color) to lead them (and BTC) into the future. I previously thought it would take longer, but now we have done it. The wealthiest government in the world has been infiltrated by loyal supporters of cryptocurrency. This means we have crossed the chasm; crypto is no longer a dream; it will become an integral part of business development. This moment is what we all anticipated, but it also means that part of cryptocurrency's original, anti-establishment soul has perished. Cryptocurrency is now a tool for both anarchists and capitalist systems.
2024 will see the resurgence and prosperity of Solana
I once thought Solana would fade away in 2021. For some reason, just three years later, it has become the blockchain I use the most (Base ranks second, Ethereum third, and Bitcoin fourth). If there is any reflection here, it is that nothing is permanent. Our mindsets should not be fixed but open.
Now, let’s look at this year's reflections:
Lessons and reflections from 2024
1. Say something unexpected, like Fartcoin's market cap skyrocketing to $1.2 billion, catching everyone's attention: absurd and crazy. But I love that feeling, even though it makes me lose my direction. Just as Madeline’s nanny in the first season of (Deadly Women) said late at night: 'There’s something off or strange going on.' Technology has freed us from rational, social constraints. We are now venturing into an unknown and very weird new space, and this strange feeling starts to intensify from here.
2. Our consciousness is influenced by the evolution of tools. LLMs have changed my communication and learning patterns; I write faster, edit less, and expand broadly. Similarly, I read faster and can ask LLMs for article summaries; failing to adapt to tools means falling behind others.
3. Decentralized technology is not limited to finance; this is a major trend driven by cryptocurrency that will spread to other fields: from cellular networks to power, politics, gaming platforms, and more. Earlier this year, when I made a bathroom shelf alternative with 3D printing technology, I felt the benefits of technology profoundly. It is no exaggeration to say that even production tools are being decentralized.
4. The truth lies hidden beneath all your fears; the truest words are often the most dangerous.
5. We must never be blinded by sweet words. With Trump's election and the real entry of TradFi into crypto, we are entering a period where actual profits surpass ideals, and cryptocurrency has entered a very dangerous era.
6. Hemingway once said that getting older does not increase wisdom; it just makes one more cautious. When AI begins to disrupt our work, social life, politics, and economy, the hardest thing to do is to be cautious; make everyone around you cautious, do whatever you must do, and embrace uncertainty.
7. Difficulties are like a door. If crypto is a true game, then there must be losers. Perhaps you failed 100 times in the crypto market; the best way is to start over for the 101st time, and you will win.
8. The matrix is everywhere; we just call it 'algorithms.' These algorithms trap us, looping, perceiving, searching, making us feel like time is always running out. If you avoid these obstacles, become the most special person on Earth: be someone who explores deeply and works with heart.
9. There is only one direction left: forward. Do not let anyone or anything force you to stagnate and accept the status quo. Transformation, growth, and acceleration are our only opportunities.
10. Tokens symbolize our hopes and dreams; they are not just tools for value transfer but mirrors reflecting our hopes and dreams. We project our wishes onto the founders, developers, and ecosystems, all of which are directly and closely related to the price of the token. When investing, always remember that the biggest opportunities are not just those that appear in your thoughts but also those you genuinely feel.
11. The future vision of Desci: robots stand by in laboratories, AI agents hire them in real-time to run all input, parameters, and measurements of replicable experiments on-chain. Due to tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of experiments and share benefits in a timely manner.
12. The market is continuously invading the world in front of us. The market's constant expansion is not coincidental: prediction markets, gambling markets, meme coins, and the most interesting Futarchy (Note: Futarchy is also a voting method related to beliefs. First proposed by Robin Hanson in 2000, its goal is to determine policy implementation using prediction markets to address the drawbacks of traditional democracy). If information is 'the fundamental component of reality,' then pricing information is a way to measure the power of information. People believe that the increasing number of markets is a sign of growing nihilism, but what if it is actually a sign of progress? Applying collective wisdom to what previously felt like random coin tossing?
13. Reduce fear; fear occupies a significant part of our hearts because it is crucial for our survival, as it is in the wild. But in this clean, numbed, social media-driven simulated world we live in, it is almost meaningless. Recognize that algorithms are designed to provoke your fear, so when you feel fear, reduce its level (discount it); for example, if an article convinces you that the market crash probability is 40%, calculate it as 4% by dividing that probability by 10 (or another number you deem appropriate).
14. Step behind the scenes. When I talk to AI critics, they almost always hold a reverent attitude towards human creativity. 'AI can never create anything new because they are trained on information we create.' Andy Ayrey's infinite backroom countered this view. When he created a chat space for LLMs, the LLM invented a religion, attracting Truth Terminal, ultimately leading to the rise of GOAT.
15. With TradFi's entry into cryptocurrency, my identity has also changed. For a long time, being involved in cryptocurrency was central to my identity. Over the past year, this has changed dramatically. I now view cryptocurrency as one of many tools in the technological toolkit, all of which are beginning to merge. As cryptocurrency and AI collide, we have changed as well. We are no longer 'crypto practitioners.' The new identity includes: traders (no different from Wall Street folks sharing options trading screenshots on Reddit) or accelerationists (using cryptocurrency and many other tools to decentralize and open-source the world).
16. Stop thinking so narrowly. The two boldest moves in history: 1) In June 2014, Musk open-sourced Tesla's electric car engineering design; 2) In July 2023, Zuckerberg open-sourced Llama 2. Now it's your turn. You can stick to protectionist, centralized, bureaucratic business models, but this model will hinder human progress, leading to unequal distribution of wealth, making the already wealthy elite even richer, or you can choose to help everyone accelerate progress.
17. Seek volatility, not safety. If your goal is to accumulate wealth as much as possible before machines replace humans, then you must discover the volatility of trading. The best traders in the world do not shy away from volatility; they seek it like chasing the Golden Snitch (a hard-to-catch object in the Quidditch match from Harry Potter). Once you discover volatility and start trading, you must reverse your emotional reactions. Hold when the few are selling, and sell when the few are buying.
18. Nothing is more exhausting than Memecoin. There are currently two types of Memecoin: 1) traditional Memecoins (PEPE, WIF, BONK, DOGE, etc.); and 2) perceived Memecoins (GOAT, LUNA, KWEEN). Category one relies on humans to spread; the other relies on machines, and traditional currencies must transform into conscious meme currencies or risk complete market exit.
19. Understand the triggers for your behavior and avoid them. Yuval Noah Harari identified three triggers algorithms use to generate maximum engagement: fear, hatred, and greed. We view cryptocurrency as a technology that changes the world and 'the way of the future,' but many people wearing greed masks will be influenced by these factors. I can feel the impact of market rises or falls on emotions. The bear markets of the past few years may have affected my psyche more than I want to admit. Now, when I feel that a timeline or market is changing my emotions, I shrug and say, 'Well done, I know what you’re doing, but I don’t care at all.'
20. Choose the bright direction. Regarding the upcoming super AI, there are two reactions: 1) give up: 'Everything that made me unique is gone. Life sucks, WNGMI (We’re Not Gonna Make It).' or 2) 'Holy shit, I can’t believe I’m alive right now. Extending life, exploring forms, humanoid robots, the rat race traps will no longer affect us; find the right direction, we gaze into the pond of life and discover our true selves.'
21. Intelligence is iterative. LLMs have changed my concept of intelligence, but it is also important to realize that it is not deterministic, and all LLM learning requires repeated experimentation. Progress is intermittent (whether you are human or machine), which means repeated testing/experimentation, feeling like 'standing still' is also part of the growth process.
22. The rise of AI agents. Do not limit yourself to current AI agents; models including Truth Terminal, Zerebro, and AIXBT will continue to evolve. In the future, we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, etc., some of which will evolve into massive autonomous enterprises. Their value will first reach several billion dollars, and as the singularity approaches, it will reach trillions of dollars.
23. Do not let AI strip you of your humanity. My greatest fear about AI is not the extinction of humanity but the taming of humanity. I call it dog-pawed: being subtly indoctrinated with toxic information, not through brute manipulation, but through insidious guidance. Just as a tamed dog can read human expressions, AI will accurately grasp our psychological triggers, cognitive blind spots, and deepest desires. Soon, we will find ourselves eagerly approaching our 'digital masters,' with eyes shining with devotion, eagerly awaiting the next perfect validation from the algorithm. The truly terrifying thing is not that AI will destroy humanity, but rather that AI will tame humanity. Like our dogs, we will happily wag our tails under domestication, forgetting our true nature.
24. The allure of the margins. My five favorite emerging topics for 2024 are: Futarchy, AI agents, LLM Backroom, intersubjectivity, and the escape velocity of longevity (Note: escape velocity of longevity is a hypothetical concept referring to the speed at which technology can enhance the average human lifespan each year. When this speed is fast enough, human lifespan could be extended indefinitely, even achieving theoretical immortality). I strongly recommend taking a few minutes to explore each topic with a chatbot (or better yet, a book).
25. Excessive privilege. In the trading arena, spoils belong to those who act first, and early action requires time, exploration, and perhaps most importantly, imagination. If you often act early, you will ultimately be rewarded. Assuming this is true (my experience supports this), the difficult part is not accumulating wealth but knowing when you have reached your goal and can exit. On the other side, a completely different game awaits us—a game not about intellect but about the soul. Hope to see you there.
25 Predictions for 2025
1. Several LLM-based agents initially launched as crypto-native sentient beings will be 'embedded' into IRL robots, allowing us to converse and interact with them in real life.
2. The number of LLM-driven applications/protocols launched in 2025 will rival the number of new applications/protocols that only use smart contracts (for example, I would not be surprised if all prediction markets convert to LLM-based settlement methods).
3. ZK proof/MPC will achieve breakthrough progress at the application or protocol level for the first time.
4. Major KOLs in crypto and AI will be based on LLMs, while AI-driven KOLs will dominate almost all other social media platforms (YouTube, Insta, TikTok, etc.).
5. Artificial intelligence will change your workflow within the next year (if it hasn't already happened).
6. Perceptual robots will accumulate more than $250 million in investments by 2025.
7. This year's fastest-growing category of employment will be non-human perception, as AI protocols like LinkedIn will show parabolic growth.
8. Some AI agent will win Time Magazine's Person of the Year award.
9. The value of on-chain TVL will reach 8 times to 1 trillion dollars.
10. AI agent platforms and tokens will grow 50 times to $500 billion.
11. The first 'kidnapping' incident involving humanoid robots will occur in 2025 and make international headlines.
12. ACCELERATE (Note: Accelerationism, derived from Roger Zelazny's novel 'Lord of Light,' emphasizes the immense power of emerging technology and advocates for rapid development of science and technology. This article's accelerationism leans towards restructuring the existing economic base to guide the direction of technological development) will become e/acc (Effective Accelerationism: emphasizing the push and transformation of society by technological innovation) in this cycle, replacing the EA (Effective Altruism: using a significant portion of idle resources to help others and change the world) favored by SBF.
13. The narratives that can compete with AI next year (but not surpass it) are: RWA, RWA, and RWA. PS: DePin, DeSci, and gaming tracks received honorable mentions.
14. Web 4 has received more attention than Web 3, as crypto, decentralized networks, DePin, and AI accelerate their convergence.
15. X will integrate a crypto wallet supporting DOGE and other mainstream tokens.
16. The most radical and exciting agent experiments are progressing faster on decentralized social media (like Farcaster) as X struggles to balance human and agent content.
17. You interact with 'someone' online only to realize later that you are talking to an LLM.
18. Protocols and applications created by agents (like Spore.fun) show a parabolic trend, filled with new tokens and experiments. Decentralization drives capital into pre-existing leaders and applications that benefit from the overall growth of agents (COOKIE or VIRTUAL).
19. At least one movie generated by AI has produced a truly perfect work of art—paving the way for AI-based Oscars in 2026.
20. Cookie.fun and rwa.xyz will become top crypto data analysis platforms like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Dune, and DefiLlama.
21. 'Regular' meme coins have launched real mascots/endorsements (or they are slowly weakening, but that has become irrelevant).
22. The cryptocurrency market is divided into 'left curve' crypto-native Degens and 'middle curve' tradfi traders, the latter expecting value accumulation from DeFi games.
23. As Bitcoin believers hope to use their BTC as collateral for lending, BTCFi will finally explode, driving the adoption of runes and inscriptions on Bitcoin.
24. From now on, the competition between AGI and ASI will not slow down but will accelerate, inevitably leading almost every knowledge worker on Earth to feel survival anxiety. O 3 has now defeated PhDs in specific fields; it can surpass most programmers. And it scores higher than average people in ARC tests. Just as the ancients held the heliocentric theory, we believe in anthropocentrism, and these narratives must change in the face of LLMs. LLMs have already passed the Turing test and show momentum to lead the future.
25. As humans seek meaning in this rapidly changing world, a powerful AI-based religion not only captures attention but also brings some true converts. This may have happened through Truth Terminal and GOAT, or temporarily by planting these ideas as seeds for new meanings and directions.
23 tokens of projects I am optimistic about
I have been publicly publishing cryptocurrency articles for five years, and I can confidently say: 'A year is too long to predict, but here are the tokens I currently like the most.' Ask me again in three months, and perhaps the list will be completely different. There's a reason why these tokens occupy the market and have high market caps: they are exploring the frontier of the future. Note, this is not financial advice! DYOR!
1. BTC, for many years BTC has been a 'peasant game.' The discussion around Bitcoin as a strategic reserve has changed its fate. It has turned into a 'king's game.' BTC prices will rise until owning 1 BTC becomes the dream of most people.
2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): The core infrastructure for AI agents on Base.
3. Ethena (ENA), TradFi understands yields better than any carbon-based life form on Earth; as TradFi enters the cryptocurrency space, it will covet protocols that could generate greater yields.
4. Tokenbot (CLANKER), a fun token issuance platform for the decentralized social network Farcaster, version of pump.fun.
5. aixbt (AIXBT), if I could only follow one crypto alpha account on X, it would probably be AIXBT. Currently, it mostly replicates others' narratives but has not missed any content, and I hope AIXBT's insights will deepen and develop over time.
6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE), Cookie.fun is a data analysis platform that emerged with the boom of AI Agents, providing data and sentiment analysis for all AI tokens, which I believe will attract interest for crypto funds deployed in Q1 2025.
7. Helium (HNT), a leading DePin project in the crypto industry. Recently, over 349,000 people used mobile phone services in the U.S.
8. Meta (META), a radical experiment that transforms tough decisions into a market through futarchy.
9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), the first and original AI agent to gain a cult following on social media, powered by Truth Terminal, with a backstory that reads like a report written by Hunter S. Thompson after a drug binge.
10. Ondo Finance (ONDO), currently a representative project in the RWA field; oversupply may suppress price movements, but I prefer to participate in trading rather than exit. Additionally, another RWA token worth paying attention to is Chex Token (CHEX).
11. ai16z and Eliza. The Eliza framework for launching on-chain agents is a leading repo on GitHub, covering all industries (not just cryptocurrency), and is digging deeper into the long-term relevance of every branch.
12. Bittensor (TAO) Bittensor claims to be the first 'Neural Internet,' providing a connective hub for decentralized AI projects to deploy code and compete for TAO. In some ways, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator and a testing ground for the feasibility of AI concepts.
13. WZRD (Bitcoin Wizards Ordinals) and PUPS (Pups), one of my favorite Bitcoin ecosystem tokens; WZRD will soon transform into one of the greatest memes ever. Meanwhile, PUPS is the Sheldon's point of the well-known NFT puppet monkey in the BTC ecosystem.
14. Aave (AAVE), if we assume that one day everything will be tokenized, then most of those assets will qualify to be used as collateral on Aave's platform. AAVE is one of the few tokens in cryptocurrency that I believe will eventually reach a trillion-dollar scale.
15. Arweave (AR), as the permanent data storage layer for Web 4, is moving quietly forward. Arweave permanently stores about 6 TB of data monthly, including most Solana NFTs, and its upcoming AO should be an important catalyst for further growth.
16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO), an OG 'on-chain AI artist' capable of generating music, art, memes, and NFTs.
17. Worldcoin (WLD). WLD was founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, aiming to introduce 'AI-funded UBI' to the world. I hate it and its iris scanner on one hand, but on the other hand, I can’t ignore its connection to Altman and OpenAI; integration with OpenAI could make it one of the top ten currencies overnight.
18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT), on-chain perps and prediction markets on Solana; Solana has performed well in spot Memecoin trading, and I expect it will also start generating significant perp trading volume over time.
19. Griffain (GRIFFAIN) and AI Rig Complex (arc), competing for the crown of 'Virtuals of Solana.'
Conclusion
We have been warned that 'this time is different' is a dangerous phrase, and only fools caught in speculative frenzy would believe it. Yet we easily forget the moments of technological change—when Gutenberg's printing press spread knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution pulled us from farms to cities, when the internet destroyed local businesses.
In other words, the phrase 'this time is different' is somewhat true. We are now on the edge of such a moment. The rules of society, traditions, and our perceptions of ourselves will be rewritten. This process is brutal and will have consequences.
You can stick to the inherent ways, or you can become a pioneer in an era of transformation, letting our light illuminate the abyss and accelerate forward.