BTC is oversold! Consolidation continues, but don't be pessimistic; patiently wait for the bullish trend:
In recent days, there has been a lot of talk about garbage time and fluctuating markets. Last night's sudden drop made some people wonder if the bull market has ended? Or if something has happened? Even if there has been a war?
In fact, the U.S. stock market is also falling and then rebounding, so during this garbage time, and in the absence of obvious positive or negative news, BTC will still have a certain correlation with the U.S. stock market, especially around holidays.
Yesterday's article illustrated the weakness of liquidity, and it was mentioned that weekdays won't be much better. In reality, that's likely the case; we are in a liquidity low tide, and broad fluctuations are quite normal.
Therefore, I still insist that in the absence of obvious positive or negative news, thinking bullish when prices rise and bearish when they fall may not be correct.
Currently, there are indeed signs that support is starting to move downward. This point was mentioned yesterday. Since we are in a liquidity low tide, let's not worry about the downward support for now. We'll reassess this data next week when liquidity returns.
In general, I've been emphasizing to everyone that everything is based on BTC's trend cycle. In a period of upward trend for BTC, if you think it will rise next, you should buy and hold.
An upward trend is definitely not smooth sailing: there will certainly be periods of extreme FOMO, high-level consolidation, then continued rising, followed by high-level fluctuations, and then a pullback, marking the end of a trend upward.
When you think the upward trend of BTC has ended, you can choose to sell. And now is still a favorable time until Q1 of next year. So, patience is needed to wait through this temporary garbage time.
ETH is stronger than BTC; this market pattern is a common bottoming trend. Maintain a bullish mindset and continue buying:
"Drawing doors and drawing U is a common method of shaking out positions." Last night ETH played this all night, causing significant position shaking. But there was no break in levels.
ETH starting to play this way also verifies my speculation about the intentions of ETH traders:
This method is generally to prepare for the upcoming rise. On one hand, it attempts to shake out floating capital with a different method; on the other hand, it tests the loyalty of the chips.
Unless there is a very inexplicable crash or sudden panic selling that breaks levels directly, testing should not be a major issue.
From a funding data perspective, there is a notable point: Ethereum, whether in terms of its movement or ETF inflows, is stronger than Bitcoin.
Last week, the net inflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $349 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity purchasing 100,000 Ethereum.
This could be preparing for Ethereum's rebound in January. Historically, Ethereum has performed well in the first quarter over the past eight years, such as in 2017 and 2021, where Ethereum achieved quarterly increases of 518% and 160%, respectively. Considering the current situation and the involvement of ETF channels, we cannot help but expect Ethereum may see even larger gains in this upcoming Q1.
At this crucial moment, we must hold on. The intentions of the traders have been revealed to this extent; we shouldn't let go now.
Most altcoins are already prepared; those that needed to be sold have been sold, and those that needed testing have been tested. They are all waiting for ETH; once ETH starts to rise, altcoins will easily follow.
BTC is oversold, altcoins are bottoming out; this is a good opportunity for positioning in the spot market:
In terms of operations, spot positions have already begun to be positioned and increased:
Increase U-based positions; waiting in a bull market is a precious quality. Waiting for an opportunity to buy the dip or get on board can lead to take-off. I believe the market will not disappoint your patience.
Let me emphasize again, the opportunity to buy in the spot market is when prices are low enough, allowing for sufficient space during the rise. The risk has already been released, so don't be afraid; just buy and wait for the rise.
As the saying goes, don't release the eagle until you see the rabbit.
The pullback in a bull market is the best opportunity for rebalancing and adjustments; during a broad rise, emotions can run high, leading to FOMO. Only when emotions cool down do we have the opportunity to think and position ourselves.
I've said this many times: BTC is very important, representing whether the overall market is trending up or down; however, BTC is not that important when you are certain that it will go up after a while. What's crucial is choosing assets that can significantly outperform BTC!
