Bitcoin Market Analysis: The possibility of breaking below $92,000
Let's first look at the Bitcoin market. Why do we say that the possibility of Bitcoin breaking below $92,000 and going to $86,000 is increasing? Firstly, we see that yesterday's daily closing still did not receive a strong rebound at the previous strong support position, closing with a spinning top candlestick. Although there was not a particularly strong break, the downtrend is already very obvious.
At the same time, we see that the MACD has entered below the 0 axis, indicating that the downtrend has not changed at all. From the daily level, this line is the key support level of the 60-day moving average. Currently, the 60-day moving average is struggling to hold this line. If the 60-day moving average gradually flattens out, the chances of breaking down will increase as the daily level oscillates up and down. What we are looking forward to is that when the price touches this line, it can generate a massive rebound, but this situation has not occurred yet.
Last night, when we saw Bitcoin drop to $91,530, there was a rapid surge in volume. After the engulfing, although the hourly market structure changed, near the previous high, which we refer to as the key point where the bearish trend turns bullish, it did not break the downtrend line nor form a higher high. Therefore, the rebound is still insufficient.
Contract Operation Strategy: How to respond to the current market
Of course, we mentioned three ways to enter contracts in the channel yesterday, one of which is a scalping method. If you placed an order for a rebound at $92,000 and saw around $95,000, you should have been able to earn, but this rebound did not continue. After it did not continue, we became overall bearish.
Why do we see $86,000? We have mentioned several times that this price is our starting point, the beginning of the entire upward channel. Due to the gradually increasing attraction, the support at this position appears to be getting stronger. We can corroborate this possibility with some data.
Firstly, Bitcoin ETF is continuously flowing out, and tomorrow is the holiday for US stocks, with several exchanges also closed. From the spot market, funds are also continuing to flow out. In terms of contracts, many long positions have accumulated, with many people hoping to scalp from this area. If you didn't enter the market yesterday, the trading risk will gradually increase, and it may break the current support line.
Therefore, the possibility of breaking down is prevailing. So how should we operate? We have always said not to enter contracts for now. If we previously had a 20% position in this area starting to bottom out, then the remaining 80% can continue to observe. It is not yet the right time, and we should take it step by step. If the next candlesticks, especially at the hourly and four-hour levels, can stabilize at key positions, we can consider gradually increasing the spot position.
If the market really breaks the current support line, then it can be re-entered at a lower position. This is an analysis of Bitcoin. In December, Bitcoin dropped from its highest point to its current lowest point, a decline of 15%. It can be said that this wave of decline is considered a monthly short-term adjustment.
AI Agency Sector: Bright prospects, rather than rising
However, another part of the sector has not only not fallen due to being undervalued, but has also been rising. Today, I checked my account, and it has already multiplied more than five times since the beginning of the month. What sector is this? It is the AI agency sector, which we have recommended multiple times before.
Today, let's do an ultimate review of the market from the candlestick perspective. First, we recommend two combinations: one is AI 16Z plus ELIZA, and the other is VIRTUAL plus GAME. Additionally, there is a single item AIXBT.
Recommended Combination: AI 16Z + ELIZA
AI 16Z is a platform-type asset that everyone knows we have been recommending. Around November 20, when the price was still at $0.18, we started recommending it. At that time, the market underwent sufficient washing to allow institutions to enter. AI 16Z's market value was severely underestimated, and its founder has a very good relationship with A16Z, so the market has strong favorable expectations for it.
During November, when the price of AI16Z was at $0.18, we also suggested that everyone increase their positions. Yesterday, we found that it did not break below the bottom line and instead bounced back up; at this point, we should not reduce our positions. The rise of AI 16Z to its current position is justified. Its benchmark is Vultual, whose market value has reached over $2 billion, while AI 16Z's market value is currently only $1.9 billion. Therefore, the increase in both comparable assets is reasonable.
Both AI 16Z and VIRTUAL have not reached their maximum potential, so there is still room for growth. We have every reason to believe that in the first quarter of 2025, these two assets may break through a market value of $10 billion. Therefore, these two assets still present opportunities for entry on dips.
Recommended Asset: ELIZA
ELIZA is an application function agent on AI 16Z, which recently broke through the downtrend channel. With the explosive growth of AI 16Z, ELIZA also has a strong upward momentum. Currently, ELIZA's market value is only $100 million, relatively undervalued. Although it has risen, it still has significant potential in the medium to long term.
Recommended Combination: VIRTUAL + GAME
VIRTUAL is currently a potential asset with a low market value, and there is still room for growth in the short term. GAME is another highly regarded asset with a market value of $2.25 billion. Although GAME has risen somewhat, it still has potential. If you do not have a position yet, you might consider buying in moderation.
Individual Recommendation: AIXBT
AIXBT is also one of the recommended individual items. Yesterday, we mentioned it might break the support line, and if it does, it would be a good opportunity. Ultimately, it did not break the support line, and today I added back the portion I reduced. AIXBT currently maintains a bullish trend from a technical perspective, and can be gradually bought on dips.
Overall, although the current market sentiment is somewhat lukewarm, there are still significant opportunities in some undervalued sectors, especially in the AI agency field. Everyone can choose suitable assets to layout based on the actual market situation and technical analysis.