Donald Trump is set to return to the White House in about three weeks — with the expectation of the cryptocurrency industry that he will act swiftly to implement Bitcoin-friendly policies.

The president-elect has made many promises. From declaring the ambition that all remaining BTC will be mined in the U.S. — to establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund — Trump wants America to become the cryptocurrency capital of the world.

He has been fortunate with some of these promises. The firing of Gary Gensler "on day one" will no longer be necessary as the SEC chairman has resigned. Cryptocurrency supporter Paul Atkins has been nominated as his successor.

Meanwhile, David Sacks has been selected as the White House's AI and cryptocurrency expert, with many key industry figures heading to Mar-a-Lago hoping to join an advisory council focused on digital assets.

All this momentum helps explain why Bitcoin has surged by up to 60% since November 5, with speculators confidently predicting that a new all-time high will occur by 2025.

But at the same time, we are starting to see some of this excitement wane and reality begin to set in.

BitMEX co-founder, cryptocurrency trader, and essayist Arthur Hayes recently predicted that investors would face a rude awakening when Trump's inauguration takes place on January 20, and should prepare for disappointment. Warning that the new president has at most 12 months to make Bitcoin users proud, he wrote:

“I think there is a huge gap between the high expectations of cryptocurrency investors regarding the pace of change from Trump and the reality that there is no politically acceptable solution from Trump to bring about such rapid change.”

So does that mean the dream of the U.S. creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve is in jeopardy? Will an unstable economy derail the price rise? Does Trump have enough political power to push through his policies?

Cautious Optimism

Samson Mow is a well-known Bitcoin user and CEO of JAN3, a company focused on national adoption.

He told Cryptonews that "it remains unclear how Trump's pro-Bitcoin stance will translate into action" — but there are key areas that could give the U.S. a competitive advantage over other economies.

“Incentive policies for Bitcoin mining or reducing regulatory burdens could position the United States as the global leader in Bitcoin. If the U.S. strategically embraces Bitcoin, it could set a powerful precedent for other countries to follow, but only time will tell if Trump can act on that promise.”

This sentiment was echoed by Phil Larratt, a researcher at Chainalysis. He warned that it is too early to assess the success of this new administration — and with the president-elect facing a daunting agenda, the first months of his term in the Oval Office will be crucial.

“We will need to see what Trump accomplishes in his first 100 days in office, as this will set the stage for the remainder of his presidency.”

Industry groups seem to be acutely aware that timing is of the essence here, as the Bitcoin Policy Institute is drafting an executive order to quickly establish a strategic BTC reserve.

This reserve would include retaining 200,000 BTC seized from criminals as an investment rather than auctioning it off — some want Trump to go further by buying up to one million BTC over the next five years.

Facing the challenges ahead, Ruslan Lienkha, market director of YouHodler, shared with Cryptonews:

“It is unlikely that Donald Trump will fulfill all of his pro-Bitcoin promises by 2025, although there is a possibility of progress being made throughout his presidency. The most ambitious promise among these — such as placing Bitcoin into the U.S. strategic reserve — seems unlikely to come to fruition before 2026.”

Skepticism towards digital assets remains widespread at all levels of society, including policymakers, institutional investors, and the general public. Achieving these goals will require significant strides towards regulatory clarity, broader societal acceptance, and evidence of stability in the cryptocurrency market.”

A Perfect Political Environment?

However, others in the Cryptonews discussion group — including author of the Bitcoin Supercycle Michael Terpin — believe there are not many obstacles for Trump.

“With a conservative majority in the Senate, House, and Supreme Court, and moderate Democrats joining the cryptocurrency support movement, it’s hard to imagine significant opposition. Sectors like the Fed still oppose Bitcoin, but that has never been a major factor in adoption.”

One thing is clear: the long-awaited regulatory clarity has finally arrived — and it will have an indelible impact on the cryptocurrency industry. Neil Bergquist, CEO of Seattle-based Coinme exchange, told us:

“We will see a lot of investment and innovation in this space, improving people’s financial lives and allowing them to capture the benefits from the economic opportunities of cryptocurrency.”

Bergquist continues to warn that the ability to fulfill Trump’s campaign commitments may at times be beyond his control, as many cryptocurrency-related policies will require Congressional approval.

“Additionally, the president has limited authority over actions taken by the SEC, CFTC, and the Treasury Department, as they play a more significant role in shaping cryptocurrency regulations. However, the odds are more favorable than ever with a supportive president, crypto-friendly leaders at the SEC and CFTC, and the Republican party controlling the House and Senate.”

A recent study by Coinme released alongside CryptoLiteracy.org found that 49% of Americans support the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund.

Samson Mow told Cryptonews that he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook and price potential of BTC, even if Trump’s cryptocurrency dream does not come to fruition.

“The trajectory of Bitcoin does not depend on any government or administration. Its decentralized nature ensures that it thrives regardless of political support. The JAN3 team is actively collaborating with lawmakers worldwide, and it is only a matter of time before many other countries implement their own Bitcoin strategies.”

DYOR! #Write2Win #Write&Earn $BTC