Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)
On December 29, influential trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio released his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 on X, predicting that ETH will be the best-performing mainstream token in the next quarter.
Eugene first mentioned three reasons for being bullish on ETH: technical trends; Trump's favor (especially the substantial purchases by WLF in the Ethereum ecosystem); and the development status of the Base ecosystem. He then reiterated that since Trump was elected, the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs has undergone a 180-degree turnaround.
ETF fund flow: Is Ethereum more favored?
Eugene did not exaggerate; SoSoValue data shows that since November 6, when Trump was elected, the inflow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs has increased significantly, with the growth trend even surpassing that of Bitcoin spot ETFs during the same period.
Entering late December, this trend has become even more apparent.
SoSoValue data shows that during the trading days last week (Eastern Time from December 23 to December 27), Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $388 million—this significant difference in fund flow may indicate that ETH has better expectations for the future.
As of the time of publication, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not yet been fully released, but according to on-chain monitoring by Lookonchain, yesterday saw a net outflow of 3,000 BTC (worth $275.59 million) from ten U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, while nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH (worth $54.33 million); the trend seems to remain unchanged.
Trump Concept Family Set
In addition to the liquidity data of ETFs, another reason supporting ETH's expectations is the continuous accumulation by the Trump family project WLFI.
In recent times, WLFI has successively purchased multiple Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO, but the token with the largest holding in the project remains ETH.
Although this is somewhat related to the fact that WIFI itself is deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase 'The president is on board, what are you hesitating for?' still has a strong FOMO effect.
Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?
Coinglass data shows that in the first quarters following historical U.S. elections and Bitcoin halving cycles, ETH performed the best, particularly in Q1 2017 and Q1 2021, when ETH rose by 518% and 161%, respectively, even surpassing BTC's returns during those two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).
If history repeats itself, ETH may see a significant rise in Q1 next year.
Potential Beta choices
If ETH can indeed rise as desired, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become higher risk/reward Beta choices, such as:
Trump concept coin combinations: AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO;
Grayscale Top 20 choices: LINK, UNI, AAVE, ENA, OP, LDO;
Potential benefits from ETF staking expectations: LDO, EIGEN, RPL, SSV;
Top AI concepts in the Ethereum ecosystem: VIRTUAL, GAME, AIXBT;
Odaily Note: The above tokens are only examples from specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.
Counterpoint
Although several well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, have made it clear that they are bullish on ETH, there are also voices expressing pessimism about ETH's future performance.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to perform poorly and will not set a new historical high in a 'hawkish' macro environment in 2025: 'We expect ETH's outlook for 2025 to be more conservative. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policy may be tested by the weakening liquidity tailwind.'
During this period of extreme market volatility, the predictions made by various parties are merely 'one-sided conclusions' based on their respective conditions and indicators, and no one can predict the future. Please remember to DYOR before making any moves.
