Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility this month, having first breached the $100,000 mark on December 5, followed by a dramatic pullback from December 9 to 10. Thereafter, the market slowly oscillated upward, just as investors were hopeful that BTC would breach $110,000, when a hawkish statement from Fed Chair Powell delivered a blow to the heated market, leading to a bloody correction in the altcoin market, with some altcoins' prices nearly halving from this month's peak.
Panic among crypto investors is spreading, with anxiety and unease permeating the community.
Countless investors are asking: Is the bull market really over? What will the future market trend look like? While the market is unpredictable, what catalysts can we expect in January? Why is January's performance worth looking forward to?
1. Trump will be inaugurated as President on January 20.
After Trump successfully campaigned for president in early November, the market experienced a continuous surge for a month. Trump has presented a crypto-friendly stance, and most of his nominated department heads are pro-crypto figures. The SEC chairman, who has been widely criticized, is also set to leave, leading the market to generally hold an optimistic view on the future of the crypto market.
Latest data shows that the new incoming legislators have a significantly higher proportion and number of supporters for cryptocurrency compared to the previous session.
According to the latest Reuters report, Angeles Investments Chief Investment Officer Michael Rosen stated that Trump's inauguration could also bring some surprises to the market, expecting him to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy.
The market is paying attention to Trump's every move regarding the crypto market. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may usher in its own golden era.
2. FTX is about to begin repaying debts.
On December 17, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of allocations will be launched within 60 days after the effective date, exclusively for approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached agreements with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset allocation services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, FTX's first round of repayment allocations, effective on January 3, includes $16 billion in cash.
Previously held tokens by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have basically been sold off.
Creditors are compensated not with tokens but with cash, indirectly reducing market selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into cryptocurrency, thereby boosting market sentiment.
3. BTC generally rises during the Lunar New Year.
As early as early February 2024, 10X Research founder and research director Markus Thielen stated that Bitcoin tends to rise by 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past nine years, traders buying Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and selling it ten days after have reaped good returns.
February 10 is the Spring Festival in 2024, and Bitcoin rose from $43,000 on February 5 to around $53,000 on February 15, continuing to rise afterwards, reaching a peak of $72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festivals in 2021, 2022, and 2024 all occurred in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 happened at the end of January. The chart clearly shows that BTC's rise during the month of the Lunar New Year has been over 10%, with the highest reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Spring Festival in 2025 is on January 29, which is earlier than previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as 'October Rising', and the performance during the Lunar New Year is worth anticipating.
