Compilation | Wu Talks about Blockchain
In this episode (Good Game Podcast), Imran and Qiao reviewed the development trends and projects of the crypto market in 2024 through previous podcasts, from market cycles to emerging application areas to the impact of global policy changes on cryptocurrencies. They reviewed key events in the market in the first half of the year, such as the development bottleneck of Eigenlayer, the market dynamics of NFT and memecoin, and the breakthrough use cases of AI in OnlyFans and social applications. In addition, they analyzed the price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana and the potential impact of ETF applications on the market, discussed how market-driven decision-making models shape the future, and made their own predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025.
The content of the podcast represents the personal opinions of the guests and does not represent the opinions of Wu Shuo. Wu Shuo does not endorse any products or tokens. Readers are requested to strictly abide by local laws and regulations.
Original link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ_9tRA6Keg
A look back at the biggest crypto trends for 2024
WIF Price Performance and Meme Coin Investment
Imran: When WIF was launched on January 24, 2024, the price was 3 to 4 cents. It has increased 10 times since then, which is pretty good. We talked about this coin on the show at that time.
Qiao: We bought at 3 cents and discussed it at 30 cents. At that time, the market paid a lot of attention to popular meme coins, but the market is much more complicated than in January, and the attention is being diluted. The mainstream coins are rotating every two weeks, and the token supply is huge, which makes it difficult to choose.
Imran: I think you need to pay special attention to liquidity when investing in meme coins. The on-chain trading environment is too fast and too complicated to be suitable for short-term entertainment investment, but if you want to invest in wealth in the long term, I recommend choosing coins listed on exchanges. Holding illiquid tokens may completely prevent you from exiting the market.
The intersection of AI and cryptocurrency
Imran: In recent months, the development of AI has attracted a lot of capital. In the past, cryptocurrency was the focus on Twitter, but now a lot of attention has been taken away by AI. In particular, some AI-related currencies have seen a very large increase. This is not just a meme, but the market has gradually recognized its practicality.
Qiao: In a surprising turn, Trump listed AI and cryptocurrency as the two most important technologies in his recent speech. He seems to see the two as complementary.
Imran: Yes, this statement proves the value of cryptocurrency to some extent. The crypto industry has often been ignored by regulators and mainstream media in the past, but the combination of AI and cryptocurrency is redefining the market's focus and clearing obstacles for the development of the industry.
Stablecoin growth and market validation
Imran: We discussed the potential of stablecoins in the first episode. Now, the market validation of stablecoins is very clear. The acquisition of Bridge by Stripe is a landmark event. Data shows that the number of crypto users using stablecoins has reached 25% to 30%.
Qiao: The locked value (TVL) and transaction volume of stablecoins are now comparable to those of PayPal and Visa. Judging from the on-chain data, the use of stablecoins has become very popular around the world. This is one of the reasons why we invested in this field last year.
Imran: Stablecoins have attracted a lot of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. In the past, this field was dominated by crypto native users and entrepreneurs from emerging markets, but now more traditional fintech companies are beginning to pay attention to the functionality of stablecoins, using them as a component of their products to increase liquidity and support more asset transactions.
Tokenization of real assets
Qiao: The tokenization of real assets has not met expectations. Although companies like BlackRock have tried to tokenize Treasury funds, crypto natives have not shown enough interest. We originally expected these users to diversify their assets from highly volatile cryptocurrencies to more stable assets, but this trend has not appeared this year.
Imran: Regulatory issues are the main obstacle, especially securities regulations. Another problem is that the end-user product experience is not good enough, such as the way to invest in real estate tokenization projects is not clear enough.
Imran: Some startups are trying new models, such as Lofty, which tokenizes real estate income and allows retail investors to share in rental income through tokens. Such projects show market potential, but the greater speculative growth is still concentrated in the meme coin and AI token space.
Qiao: Perhaps we need to wait another two to three years. Regulatory issues and changes in user behavior may gradually drive the development of this field.
The Current State of Ethereum and the Rise of Layer 2
Imran: Ethereum is still in a "transition period" and we need more time to see how it solves the problems of expansion and profitability. As for Layer 2, Base is the most prominent project this year because Coinbase, as its supporter, has strong distribution capabilities.
Qiao: I agree. The rise of Base is inseparable from its brand influence and distribution capabilities. Two years ago, many application developers chose to develop on Polygon, but now almost all of them have turned to Ethereum's Layer 2, among which Base is the most popular.
Imran: This is a phenomenon worth paying attention to. People like Jesse actively promote the development of Base and even go around the world to promote its ecosystem. I think this founder spirit is a key factor in Base's success.
NFT and the Development of SocialFi
Qiao: Pudgy Penguins is the best performing NFT project this year, even surpassing Bored Apes to become the only large-scale NFT series that has achieved growth relative to ETH.
Imran: SocialFi is the topic we focus on in the first episode. Pump is expected to reach $1 billion in revenue in less than a year, which shows the huge potential of SocialFi. It is also one of the main trends we focused on at the beginning of the year.
The future of application chains and competition with single chains
Imran: The potential of application chains has not yet been fully unleashed. Currently, the threshold for creating application chains is still high, and the number of users and transaction volume is not enough to support large-scale development. However, we have seen some examples, such as Ronin turning to Polygon's CDK.
Qiao: The goal of the application chain is more to serve global users on the chain, rather than those who already have traditional financial service channels. For example, Moonshot is trying to provide more convenient financial services to users on the chain through its platform.
ETF predictions
Imran: We predicted on the show that an ETF would be approved, and that has indeed happened. This is an important sign of cryptocurrency’s place in mainstream finance.
Qiao: This reflects that traditional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are beginning to fully embrace cryptocurrencies. If someone told me 10 years ago that these companies would promote Bitcoin on their official homepages, I would think it would be impossible, but now it has become a reality.
February summary: Five trends driving the bull market
ETFs and Market Focus
Imran: We talked about ETFs and the Gary Gensler hack, which was a sideshow but highlighted the current regulatory environment.
Qiao: We also mentioned that Phantom once surpassed Coinbase in the App Store rankings. This is an interesting phenomenon, which shows that even a niche wallet app can attract users' attention in a short period of time.
Imran: Although this phenomenon is short-lived, it reflects the potential of decentralized wallets. I think Phantom needs to further improve its user stickiness in order to benefit from these short-term fluctuations.
The rise of Hyperliquid
Imran: Hyperliquid is a project we mentioned on March 5th. At that time, they launched their own application chain based on Tendermint consensus. In 8 months, their transaction volume was close to 1 billion US dollars and the TVL reached 300-400 US dollars. This growth rate is amazing.
Imran: I also talked to the Hyperliquid team, they realized that the Tendermint consensus mechanism is a bottleneck and are redesigning a faster consensus mechanism. Their goal is to provide users with the fastest and best transaction experience.
Qiao: Yes, they have further optimized their ecosystem by launching a fully customized Layer 1 chain. This customization shows that they pay close attention to the needs of the market segments.
Imran: I think there may be more and more customized chains like this in the future. Layer 2 and public chains like Arbitrum, Polygon, and Solana may be diverted to smaller application chains under this trend.
Qiao: But this also shows that the market demand for high-performance chains continues to grow, and Hyperliquid may become a paradigm in this field.
Imran: I kind of regret not participating in the early farming of Hyperliquid. When they launched, I was not a leveraged trader and didn’t pay attention to derivatives, so I missed a lot of opportunities. But now that I see their growth, I want to participate in their future products.
Farcaster user behavior and ecosystem development
Imran: We talked about Farcaster’s daily active users (DAU), which dropped from a peak of 100,000 to 40,000 now. This is a significant decline and may be related to a lack of platform innovation.
Qiao: Yes, they recently launched the Snapchain framework, which is a tool that allows users to easily develop applications based on Farcaster, like a small decentralized application store. I think they are trying to attract developers and users through this framework.
Imran: I noticed some updates to Farcaster’s UI. Now you can click on the bottom right corner to go to Explorer to view apps and launch them directly. This innovation makes me feel that they are really trying to expand the functionality of the social graph.
Qiao: In the long run, I think Farcaster’s opportunity lies in developing new features that Twitter cannot achieve. For example, innovative applications that combine financialization and social graphs may be one direction.
Imran: Yes, this method can not only help the application spread quickly, but also attract more users. This is the biggest highlight of our discussion about Farcaster.
The explosion of meme coins and the potential of SocialFi
Imran: We talked about the meme coin explosion on March 14, specifically mentioning TRUMP and HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. I tried to buy it at the time, but the price fluctuations were too large, and cross-chain transactions made me hesitate.
Qiao: HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu's price has risen, but overall, it is still a high-risk project. The life cycle of meme coins is often short and more dependent on the short-term enthusiasm of the community.
Imran: I remember HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu was close to zero, but then it rose again due to a new listing news. I personally think that this kind of currency can only be used as a speculative tool.
The intersection of culture and crypto
Imran: We’ve noticed crypto culture starting to spread through platforms like TikTok. For example, crypto-related merchandise has appeared on TikTok, one example being the “Chill Guy” sweater.
Qiao: I almost bought a "Chill Guy" sweater, but I gave up because I thought it might go out of style soon. I would rather invest my money in cryptocurrency.
Imran: I agree that while these products reflect the spread of crypto culture, their value is more symbolic. This shows that crypto culture is trying to enter the wider consumer field.
Bitcoin Puppets Performance
Imran: Bitcoin Puppets is a Bitcoin ecosystem project that we discussed. When we bought it, the price was about 50K, and now it has risen to 100K. This performance has indeed exceeded expectations.
Qiao: Nodes and Puppets are the two best performing projects. They have attracted a lot of attention and funding, especially for innovative projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Crypto leads the cultural trend
Imran: We have observed that crypto culture is gradually entering mainstream social platforms, such as TikTok. This phenomenon shows that the influence of the crypto industry is expanding.
Qiao: I think this kind of cultural communication will attract more users to the crypto ecosystem, especially the younger generation. This provides new impetus for the continuation of the bull market.
March Summary: Meme Coin, BlackRock, and L3
Blast Launch and Solana’s Retail Positioning
Imran: We talked about the launch of Blast on March 14, 2024. We also mentioned that Solana is positioned as the “Degen chain” for retail users. This is an accurate description.
Imran: Solana’s Layer 2 projects FireDancer and CMS, as well as the market prospects of institutions such as Split Capital, are also in our discussion. These all indicate that Solana is trying to expand its user base, especially to attract retail investors.
ETFs, meme coins, and the impact of BlackRock
Imran: We talked about the approval of ETFs and reviewed the market situation 8 months ago, including the outbreak of meme coins, BlackRock’s impact on the market, and the development trend of Layer 3.
Qiao: I remember we mentioned the expectation of ETF approval. At that time, both Daniel and Zaheer were bullish on the approval of ETFs, especially ETH ETF.
Imran: Yes, this bullish sentiment drove the market. The meme coin boom at the time also exacerbated this trend, although the volatility of meme coins made it difficult for many investors to hold on to them for the long term.
The Role of Layer 3 and Market Sharding
Imran: We discussed the role of Layer 1 and the market sharding, especially in the debate between Ethereum and Solana geeks, involving Degen Tokens on Farcaster. When I first heard the term Layer 3, I found the concept difficult to accept.
Qiao: Yes, the development of Layer 3 is mainly focused on more sophisticated application scenarios, but so far, no particularly convincing success cases have been seen.
Bitcoin Layer 2 Development Challenges
Imran: We mentioned the development of Bitcoin Layer 2, but it currently faces problems of slow speed and poor user experience (UI/UX), especially the use of PRC 20 tokens, which hinders the entry of many users.
Qiao: Yes, I hope to see some major breakthroughs in Bitcoin Layer 2 in the second half of the year. Currently, well-funded projects are in operation, but it may not bear fruit until next year.
Imran: Meanwhile, Base and Solana are competing for the AI-related meta. Base has a slight advantage, especially with the Virtual framework, which provides a clean and user-friendly way to launch agents.
Qiao: Solana’s Eliza framework has a lot of community support, but it doesn’t have the clean product experience of Virtual. I think Base is one step ahead in the proxy framework.
AI Applications and Competition
Imran: The competition in the AI space is very fierce. We talked about Goat’s recent announcement and regaining some attention. In addition, ai16z became the number one repository on Github, attracting a lot of developer attention.
Qiao: Yes, Zerebro plans to launch ZerePy to compete with Eliza. And Goat’s new project Backdoors 2.0 will allow AI agents to talk to humans and generate more sophisticated models based on context.
Discussion on Bitcoin halving and bull market
Imran: We talked about the Bitcoin halving event and the market's decline. Although the market is in a consolidation period, from my perspective, it is more like a normal consolidation.
Qiao: Even though the Bitcoin price remains at 65K, which was the level two months ago, there are a lot of complaints on Twitter. This may be because geopolitical issues, such as the tension between Iran and Israel, have led to a large sell-off in the market.
Telegram’s TON Project
Imran: We mentioned the TON project. Since the arrest of its founder, the project has basically been in trouble. Although it has potential for distribution, it has a poor developer experience, limited supported languages, high transaction fees, and long block times.
Qiao: Yes, we have partially invested in the TON ecosystem, but in the end most of the projects have transformed. I think that technological differentiation is no longer the key, and distribution is the core of the success of Layer 1 and Layer 2.
Imran: This is why Base succeeded. It dominated the market by relying on Coinbase’s distribution channels, not because of the uniqueness of the technology. Base’s technology is basically the same as other OP Stack Layer 2, but its distribution capabilities make it stand out.
The evolution of the crypto space
Imran: We see Base and Solana continue to compete for market share in AI and meme. Although Bitcoin Layer 2 has potential, the user experience still needs to be greatly improved.
Qiao: Our discussion shows that distribution capabilities are becoming a core competitiveness in the crypto space, especially in the competition between Layer 1 and Layer 2. This trend is likely to shape the market landscape in the coming years.
April Summary: Eigenlayer, SocialFi Summer and Fund Outflows
Current status and challenges of Eigenlayer
Imran: We discussed Eigenlayer, but no team is willing to use it for economic security. For startups, economic security is not a priority, and they are more concerned about how to launch products quickly and acquire users.
Qiao: I totally agree. Ultimately, startups care about product implementation and user growth, not whether the underlying infrastructure is optimal.
Market cycles and bull market phases
Imran: In May, we thought the market was about 50% of the way there. Now, we are about 80%-90% of the way there, with maybe 3 to 6 months left.
Qiao: Yes, but the last 10%-20% of the time, the price fluctuations may be more drastic. You need to be extra careful at this stage.
Imran: My current strategy is to keep the portfolio intact. I have been holding assets for 3 months now and I choose not to trade frequently especially after the AI meta caught on. Otherwise, there is a high chance of getting cut in the market volatility.
High FDV Projects and New Releases
Imran: We talked about high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) projects like Hyperliquid and Movement. Hyperliquid’s FDV reached $12 billion to $13 billion, while Movement’s FDV once reached $10 billion.
Qiao: Hyperliquid’s community demonstrates strong user traction, similar to the early days of Ethereum’s OG investors. This “organic user effect” gives Hyperliquid a special position in the Layer 1 market.
Imran: Movement is more of a “farm” strategy with lots of investors hyping it up on Twitter, but lacks the organic growth that Hyperliquid had that was truly driven by traders.
Qiao: I think Hyperliquid has a clearer positioning, and it quickly adapts to the market by providing high-quality products for Degen (high-risk traders), while Movement and Aptos rely more on BD (business development) cooperation, such as the AI strategy with OpenAI product officers.
SocialFi's Summer and Consumer Behavior
Imran: The SocialFi space is starting to show signs of activity, but it’s still early days. The explosion of celebrity tokens may take 1–2 market cycles, and consumer behavior is not yet fully ready.
Qiao: Yes, celebrity tokens may go through a similar journey as meme coins, which were widely ridiculed at the end of last year but have now been accepted by the mainstream. It takes time for consumer behavior and market consensus to change.
Imran: We are currently incubating a startup called Cloud, which aims to provide tools for celebrities to launch their own tokens. This model may be adopted more in the next cycle.
Bitcoin Market Observation
Imran: We also talked about the consolidation in the Bitcoin market. Although the price is stuck at 65K, the market is going through a consolidation period. I think this is more of a consolidation phase than the end of the bull market.
Qiao: Yes, the negative sentiment in the market may be more affected by geopolitical issues, such as the situation in Iran and Israel, which led to a short-term market sell-off.
TON Project Dilemma
Imran: The TON project has been in trouble since its founder was arrested. Its poor developer experience, limited support for a small number of programming languages, high transaction fees, and long settlement times have hampered its development.
Qiao: Distribution capability is still the potential of TON, but it needs to improve the developer experience and optimize technical implementation to regain market attention.
Market Timing and Opportunities
Imran: Many of the current market phenomena, such as SocialFi and celebrity tokens, are a matter of timing. Although the market is not fully ready, we can see that consumer behavior is gradually changing.
Qiao: We need to continue to pay attention to the market rhythm, especially on celebrity tokens and high FDV projects. These may be the key growth points in the next market cycle.
Mid-year review and forecast for the second half of the year
Market Review and Bull Market Progress
Imran: By June, we were in the middle of the market. While there was a lot of good news, such as Andrew King’s analysis of ETFs, and some positive macro signals, the market was not clearly rising. There was also disagreement on the likelihood of a rate cut, with some believing the short term was bearish.
Qiao: In the short term, rate cuts may be bullish, but the medium-term effect may be different. We have called some speculations "armchair economists'" analysis, and it turns out that they did not accurately predict the rhythm and reaction of the market.
AI Applications and the OnlyFans Model
Imran: In June, we discussed the trend of creators using AI chatbots on OnlyFans. These bots are able to handle a large number of message interactions instead of real people, becoming one of the main sources of income for creators.
Qiao: Yes, OnlyFans’ main source of income is not subscriptions, but one-to-one message interactions. Each message may cost 10 cents or more, and users will also pay to unlock photos or content. AI is playing an increasingly important role, allowing creators to focus on other aspects of their work.
Imran: We were discussing the global trend of loneliness and how it relates to the need for AI companions. AI is becoming a tool for mental health and social interaction, especially among young people.
NFT and meme coin market dynamics
Imran: CBB’s decision to no longer provide liquidity to the market has had a certain impact on the NFT market. At the same time, meme coins still occupy a lot of market attention.
Qiao: Whether NFT will return to the mainstream market is still unknown. But judging from past trends, meme coins have proven themselves to be able to become the main focus in certain cycles.
Limitations of Eigenlayer
Imran: Eigenlayer has not generated widespread interest among startup teams, mainly because economic security is not their primary concern. Developers are more focused on product launches and user growth.
Qiao: This is why we have repeatedly emphasized that startups should focus on users and products rather than optimizing the underlying infrastructure.
Polymarket and the Changes in Prediction Markets
Imran: We talked about the volume changes at Polymarket, especially the traction in sports markets. Although the overall volume at Polymarket has decreased, the potential of prediction markets is still huge.
Qiao: The prediction market model is expanding, such as detecting misinformation on the Internet through a market-based approach that incentivizes users to submit evidence, expose errors, and win rewards.
Imran: This market-based Community Notes approach could potentially be more effective than existing fact-checking mechanisms because it would engage a wider range of users.
ICLs vs. VCs
Imran: ICLs are emerging as a mainstream way for community members to participate in startup financing. We believe that ICLs are not competing with meme coins, but with traditional venture capital.
Qiao: The venture capital model may be more focused, but ICLs provide a fairer and more decentralized alternative. Platforms like Pump have become the main frontier for project launches.
AI and Cryptocurrency
Imran: We talked about how AI can be combined with cryptocurrency to create new consumer behaviors and application scenarios. Startups like Swife are exploring the combination of AI and social interaction to provide users with a more personalized experience.
Qiao: This trend is driving the entire industry forward, especially driven by the younger generation of developers.
Gen-Z’s Impact on the Crypto Industry
Imran: We have observed that many of the most successful crypto applications are developed by Gen-Z. This group is optimistic and adventurous, and they are more willing to try new directions than previous developers.
Qiao: The success of Ethereum is a typical example. Vitalik, who was only 18 years old at the time, launched Ethereum with a simple idea, while many senior computer scientists were skeptical about it.
Forecast for the second half of 2024
Imran: Our prediction for the second half of 2024 is that the market will continue to be dominated by AI and community-driven models. ICLs, the return of NFTs, and the rise of decentralized science may become new highlights.
Qiao: 2024 will be the year when distribution capabilities and community power determine the market landscape. We will closely monitor these trends and continue to drive innovation in the industry.
Trend predictions for 2025
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Imran: I think Bitcoin will reach 250K in 2025, which is the market consensus. But I am not sure if this is the peak, because when everyone predicts 250K, it may go higher. I predict it may reach 350K.
Qiao: I give a larger range, with a minimum of 150K and a maximum of 420K. It mainly depends on two points: one is the approval of the strategic Bitcoin reserve; the other is the macro environment of the market.
Imran: It would be an extremely bullish sign if Trump came to power in early 2025 and included Bitcoin in the strategic reserve. He could take the form of an executive order to retain confiscated Bitcoin or even push the government to buy new Bitcoin.
Qiao: Yes, that is a possibility. He may issue the order on the first day of the year, January 20, 2025.
Trends in Bitcoin Strategic Reserves
Imran: I’ve noticed that more and more small organizations, such as community associations and even some apartment complexes, are starting to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. For example, one property management team bought Bitcoin for $5,000 as an operational reserve. This trend may expand from the local level to the national level.
Qiao: Yes, this phenomenon shows that Bitcoin adoption is extending from the government to the smaller community level. Ultimately, this could become an important driving force for the continued rise in Bitcoin prices.
Ethereum and Solana
Imran: Ethereum’s price has been driven by ETFs and has performed strongly recently. In contrast, Solana’s price growth has been limited mainly due to supply pressure from FTX legacy and unlocked funds.
Qiao: Solana’s largest unlock will be in March 2025. I think after the unlocking pressure is over, Solana’s performance may catch up with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Imran: Solana recently filed for an ETF, which could be a game changer if approved. Polymarket’s forecasts put the probability of a Solana ETF being launched before July 31, 2025 at 74%.
AI Metaverse and AI Agents
Imran: The AI metaverse is still in the first phase, with extractors being the majority and builders accounting for only 30%. In the next month or two, we may enter the second phase, where builders will start to dominate.
Qiao: AI, as one of the biggest trends, has shown great potential. We invested in Goat tokens on the first day, proving our judgment. In the future, we may see more proxy platforms and markets gradually mature.
New market model
Qiao: Some completely new market models may emerge next year, such as market-driven decision-making mechanisms. Suppose a sports team is selecting a coach, the prediction market can help the team choose the best option by voting on the potential results of different candidates.
Imran: We are incubating a similar project that uses prediction markets to drive decision-making about future events. This approach can be applied in multiple fields such as sports, business and even public policy.
