The TON ecosystem is showing significant changes when analyzed through two charts on Total Value Locked (TVL) and the staking TVL ratio to total TVL. This information not only helps assess the current status of TON but also opens up strategic perspectives for investors.
1. Overview of TVL and capital flow structure
The TVL chart by category shows the allocation of capital flows within the TON ecosystem as follows:
• Staking dominates:
The TVL of the TON ecosystem is primarily concentrated in staking, reflecting users' preference for earning profits from locking assets rather than using them in other decentralized applications. This may be driven by attractive staking interest rates or a lack of diversification in financial products within the ecosystem.
• The increasing role of DEXes:
Although DEXes (decentralized exchanges) account for a smaller proportion of TVL compared to staking, their growth trend is noteworthy. This may reflect a shift in capital flows from staking to decentralized trading, aligning with the decentralization trend in the crypto market.
• CEXes account for a very small proportion:
TVL from centralized exchanges (CEXes) is almost negligible. This indicates that TON is focusing on building a more decentralized ecosystem rather than relying on centralized services.
2. Changes in the Staking rate and their impact on the price of TON
$The chart of Staking TVL / Total TVL clarifies the relationship between staking and the price of the TON coin:
• Staking rate declines sharply:
In the early months of 2024, the staking rate accounted for over 80% of total TVL, but by the end of the year, this figure had dropped to about 40-50%. This indicates that users have gradually withdrawn assets from staking and are likely transitioning to other financial products such as DEXes or decentralized protocols.
• Impact on the price of TON:
A declining staking rate often puts selling pressure on the price of TON, as users withdrawing staking assets may sell to lock in profits. The price of TON in 2024 is expected to decline alongside the decrease in the staking rate, but by the end of the year, the price has stabilized more due to capital potentially being reallocated to other areas.
• Signals of recovery:
At the end of 2024, when the staking rate shows signs of stagnation and the market stabilizes, the price of TON begins to recover slightly. This could be a positive sign for long-term investors.
3. Assessment of TON's potential
Based on analyses from the chart, several important observations can be made:
• Strength from staking but needs diversification:
Current staking remains the main area contributing to the TVL of TON, but the decline in the staking rate indicates that the ecosystem needs to develop additional financial products to retain capital flows.
• DEXes are a sector with growth potential:
The increase in TVL at decentralized exchanges (DEXes) is a positive signal. This could become a key driver for TON to maintain its appeal if this trend continues.
• The importance of price stability:
The price of TON currently has a close correlation with TVL fluctuations, especially from staking. Reducing dependence on staking through product diversification will help stabilize the price of TON and attract more investors.
Investment strategy for the TON coin
Based on the current situation, investors can consider applying investment strategies across three time frames: short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
1. Short-term strategy (1-3 months):
• Focus on trading according to price trends:
Based on the correlation between the price of TON and the staking rate, investors can take advantage of short-term price volatility, especially when the staking rate continues to decline. Placing buy orders at strong support areas (around $4) and selling when the price hits resistance ($6) is a reasonable strategy.
• Trading based on the growth of DEXes:
Observing DEX platforms within the TON ecosystem. If DEXes continue to attract capital flows, investments can be made in DEX-related tokens or using TON to participate in trades for short-term profits.
2. Medium-term strategy (3-6 months):
• Waiting for the stability and recovery of the staking rate:
If the staking rate shows signs of recovery or stability, this will be a supporting factor for the price of TON in the medium term. Investors may increase their holdings of TON when the staking TVL reaches a sustainable threshold.
• Participate in staking with stable yields:
Investors can take advantage of staking in the medium term to earn profits from staking rewards. This is a risk-reducing strategy when the price of TON may fluctuate in the sideways region.
3. Long-term strategy (6-12 months):
• Investing in the development of the TON ecosystem:
If TON continues to diversify its financial products, this will be a signal that the ecosystem is developing sustainably. In the long term, the price of TON may increase as capital shifts from staking to other sectors such as DEXes or cross-chain bridges.
• Accumulating TON in low price regions:
In the event that the price of TON continues to weaken, this could be an opportunity to accumulate more assets at a low cost. Using a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy to minimize risk.
Conclusion
TON is a potential ecosystem with significant advantages from staking and the development of DEXes. However, excessive dependence on staking remains a risk that needs to be mitigated. Investors should take advantage of flexible strategies for different time frames to optimize profits and minimize risks.