1. Market launch
The bull market started in October last year when the price of bitcoin hit $25,000, which was the first round of the rise after breaking the bottom. During this period, many funds failed to grasp the opportunity and missed the opportunity. Only a few sharp funds and some long-termists were able to participate in it. The reason is that the market trend is not clear at the beginning, and investors often find it difficult to judge the sustainability and strength of the market.
2. Small Differences Stage
There were two small divergence and upward relays during the rise. For example, in January, the price fell back to 38,500. At that time, I dared not to buy any lower. These two periods of market conditions belonged to relatively clear trend-following market conditions. Although there were small divergences, the overall upward trend remained unchanged. At this time, the market sentiment was relatively optimistic. Some investors may hesitate due to short-term fluctuations, but the power of the trend still pushed the price to continue to rise. This period of market conditions ended with the big cake breaking the new high in March. Fortunately, all my team members escaped successfully!
Major Divergence Phase
Subsequently, starting from March, the price entered a major divergence phase around 70,000, with a consolidation period lasting over half a year. During this time, there was a significant change in the power comparison between bulls and bears, and the market's divergence regarding future trends increased, leading to reduced price volatility and entering a range-bound oscillation phase. This period can be referred to as a devilish market, where many people suffered losses and left the circle after liquidating their positions.
Second Wave Initiation
After the final sell-off and consolidation at the bottom of the major divergence, starting from September, speculation on the opportunity of the U.S. elections sparked the beginning of the second wave of a major market trend. The initiation of this wave is often due to the market accumulating enough energy after a long period of divergence and adjustment. Once consensus is formed, it pushes prices to rise significantly again. This wave ended with the price reaching nearly 110,000 dollars in December, and a new oscillation began.
Phase Top Judgment
The current area is more likely to be a phase top. From the bull-bear ratio, it has reached above 2, satisfying the conditions for institutional breakdown compared to last week. If a breakdown occurs again followed by consolidation, another main upward wave may come. If there is a decline, altcoin spot could be a bottom-fishing opportunity. However, if there is another surge, it is likely to be the last main upward wave of this round, where after breaking the previous high, a new top will be formed. Special attention should be paid to the risk of a phase top, with a projected opportunity to hit this level around 150,000. This timeframe is estimated to be from February to April 2025. After the top is completed, there will be opportunities for medium to long-term short positions, and the market may then fall into extreme panic, with investors trapped in despair, leading to a state of chaotic oscillation.
The above content is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Investment decisions should be made cautiously by considering multiple factors. #2025比特币价格预测
