The market rhythm is proceeding as expected. The U.S. is still in a holiday, Bitcoin is finding its bottom, and altcoins are consolidating.
Why is there a decline?
Currently, there are no new bearish signals. It’s quite normal for BTC's price to fluctuate around $95,000, considering that after the election, the lowest range for BTC was about $92,000, and the price later rose due to various positive information. Therefore, fluctuations during this recent period of low liquidity are not unusual.
This indicates that current investors have normalized their emotions during the holidays. Most retail investors have sold what they needed to sell and bought what they needed to buy. In the absence of institutional and large fund intervention, the buying and selling volume is as it is. Unless new positive or negative stimuli arise, emotional buying or selling is unlikely to happen again; otherwise, it is highly probable that the market will maintain a fluctuating sentiment.
Comparing the data, it is evident that the current trading volume has dropped to a very low level, similar to the trading volume during the eight-month period of garbage fluctuations around $65,000. Therefore, the current sell-off is not related to so-called market makers or large investors, but rather the PVP of BTC holders under low liquidity. The real price movement will depend on the recovery of liquidity in the future.
Currently, the market is focused on Bitcoin, waiting for its adjustment to complete before a potential launch.
My view is still that it will fluctuate around $95,000, and it cannot break below $90,000. If it does, there will be panic selling.
On December 24, I published a reminder that the fluctuations are not over yet. This type of market is generally suitable for DCA and not for chasing highs.
From the sweeping trends, it can be seen that many altcoins have nearly completed their K-line structures. However, the current adjustment rhythm of Bitcoin is slower than that of altcoins. We need to wait for Bitcoin to complete its full adjustment process and structure to fully release the overall market risk before altcoins can truly surge.
Strategy: A pullback is the best opportunity to assess strong altcoins and also the best chance to switch positions. I've mentioned this countless times; I wonder if you have executed it?
There's no need to deliberately look for reasons for the pullback!
It has risen too much, the slope is too steep, and indicators are oversold. These are things that must be digested; only through a pullback can there be a better launch. The next rise will completely break through the $100,000 barrier.
Recent strategies in execution:
1. Use Bitcoin to exchange for promising altcoins (from the perspective of currency standards, there are more altcoins now).
2. No exchange for USDT, no reduction in positions.
Only when the altcoin season arrives can the vast majority of retail investors turn their fortunes around!
Because retail investors mostly hold altcoins and have no Bitcoin. If this bull market doesn’t have an altcoin season, many retail investors will face dire consequences; those who are meant to deliver takeout will deliver, and those who are meant to go to sea will go to sea.
Many people need to adjust their portfolio allocations. Following a ratio of Bitcoin, value coins, and altcoins at 5:3:2 will definitely outperform the majority!
I believe the bull market is not over; the altcoin season will still come. What is uncertain is whether you can hold on until the altcoin season arrives?
In the past few days, the battle between bulls and bears has been inconclusive; everyone should pay attention to risks and operate cautiously.
Reject complacency. The market may seem calm now, but there are actually undercurrents.
The best approach is to observe and wait for an opportunity to buy the dip or enter the market. I believe the market will not let your patience go to waste.
At this moment, it is important to focus on trend trading. It’s best to wait until it stands firm before buying; personally, I think if it doesn't hold, there’s a higher chance of another drop. This is not a bearish outlook, just a realistic expression of market views.
My approach is also quite simple: I won’t open any contracts or leverage. I won't touch my long-term spot and staking positions, and I will clear short-term positions that I currently consider non-alpha projects, trying to increase my USDT holdings and wait for opportunities to enter.
In eight words: Market turmoil, pay attention to safety!