Author: Stoic
Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow
Extract the core views of the world's top institutions for you, saving hundreds of pages of report reading time.
Data Source: J.P. Morgan, Blackrock, Deutsche Wealth, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.
1. Core Views of J.P. Morgan
Global Economic Growth: Global economic growth is expected to continue in 2025, but the Chinese economy may experience significant slowdown.
Stock Market Forecast: The S&P 500 index is expected to reach 6500 points, but the global stock market may show divergent performance.
Global Market Outlook
In the coming months, market trends will be influenced by the interaction of macroeconomic trends and monetary policy, while policy changes from the new U.S. government will also bring uncertainty.
Technological innovation, especially the 'continuation of the AI boom,' will be an important driver of the market.
Interest Rate Outlook
The baseline forecast suggests that global economic growth is resilient, but the persistence of inflation will limit the scope for further monetary policy easing in 2025.
However, the new Trump administration may bring risks, such as overly aggressive trade and immigration policies that could impact the supply side and undermine global market confidence.
Baseline Scenario Forecast
Global economic growth is strong.
U.S. stocks and gold have a favorable outlook, but the prospects for oil and base metals are not optimistic.
2. Core Views of Blackrock
Special Market Environment: The current market is in a special phase where long-term assets react unusually strongly to short-term events.
Investment Strategy: Continue to favor risk assets and further increase positions in U.S. stocks, as the 'AI theme is rapidly expanding.'
Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation and interest rates are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Market Outlook for 2025
Inflation Pressure: Due to heightened geopolitical divisions and accelerated spending driven by 'AI infrastructure development and low-carbon transitions,' inflation pressure is expected to persist.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant rate cuts, with rates expected to remain above 4%.
Long-term bond yields: Given the budget deficit, sticky inflation, and increased market volatility, investors may demand higher risk premiums, leading to rising long-term treasury yields.
Key Investment Themes
AI-driven investment boom: The AI race will continue to drive market investments.
U.S. stocks continue to lead: U.S. stocks are expected to continue performing well, but investors need to be flexible in responding to market changes.
Pay attention to risk signals: Such as soaring long-term bond yields or escalating trade protectionism, which may become key signals for adjusting investment strategies.
3. Core Views of Deutsche Wealth
In the context of a 'challenging economic environment,' inflation may remain high due to 'increased fiscal spending and potential tariff hikes.'
'This will limit the space for central banks to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts, forcing them to seek a balance between growth and inflation control. This uncertainty may change market expectations and trigger more volatility than in 2024. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts arising from changes in trade policy may further exacerbate market instability.'
Asset Allocation Themes
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, with robust economic growth and strong investment.
Focus on growth stocks, but be wary of high volatility risks.
Corporate profit growth and large-scale stock buybacks will benefit the U.S. stock market.
Investment Recommendations:
Focus on the long-term positive trends in economic growth.
It is recommended to adopt a diversified investment portfolio and conduct active risk management.
Key Point Overview
Despite geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, global economic growth is expected to slightly rise from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025-26.
Although short-term growth prospects have improved, the growth of most global economies remains below the average level of the 2010s.
Global inflation is expected to gradually decline, averaging 3.5% in 2025. Central banks may remain cautious regarding policy easing.
Risks such as geopolitical conflicts and climate disasters remain, particularly impacting vulnerable economies.
Policy recommendations include supporting green and digital transitions, promoting debt relief, and improving food security.
4. Key Points of the World Bank Group's 2025 Outlook
Despite facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, global economic growth is expected to remain at 2.6% in 2024. By 2025-26, this growth rate may slightly rise to 2.7% as trade and investment gradually recover.
Although short-term growth prospects have improved, overall performance remains weak. During 2024-2025, nearly 60% of economies will grow below the average level of the 2010s, which account for over 80% of global economic output and population.
Global inflation is expected to ease more slowly than previously anticipated, with this year's average inflation rate reaching 3.5%. Due to persistent inflation pressure, central banks may be more cautious when relaxing monetary policies.
Multiple shocks in recent years have caused many emerging markets and developing economies to stagnate in catching up with developed economies. Data shows that nearly half of EMDEs are lagging behind developed economies in performance between 2020-2024. The future outlook is even bleaker for those vulnerable economies severely affected by conflicts.
Despite a balanced risk outlook, overall risks remain skewed to the downside. Major risks include:
Ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Global trade divisions may worsen.
High interest rates may persist for a long time, compounded by ongoing inflation pressure.
Frequent natural disasters related to climate change.
To address the above challenges, global policies need to focus on the following areas:
Maintain stability in the international trade system.
Promote green and digital transitions to support economic sustainability.
Provide debt relief support to help alleviate the pressure on highly indebted countries.
Improve food security issues, especially in vulnerable economies.
For emerging markets and developing economies, high levels of debt and their repayment costs pose a severe challenge. These countries need to find a balance between meeting significant investment needs and maintaining fiscal sustainability.
To achieve long-term economic and social development goals, countries need to adopt the following policy measures:
Enhance productivity growth and promote economic efficiency.
Improve the efficiency of public investment to ensure proper use of funds.
Strengthen human capital development, such as education and skills training.
Narrow the gender gap in the labor market to increase female labor participation rates.
5. Core Views of Goldman Sachs
'2025: A Key Year for Exploring Excess Returns'
The simultaneous occurrence of declining interest rates and economic growth may be favorable for the stock market.
Current stock valuations are nearing high levels, and future earnings growth will be the main driver of the market.
Since October 2023, global stock markets have risen by 40%, making the market more susceptible to negative news.
The increase in the S&P 500 index is one of the strongest since 1928. The Nasdaq index has risen by over 50%, while NVIDIA's increase has reached as high as 264%. This trend is mainly driven by expectations of 'peak inflation' and a 'shift in Federal Reserve policy.'
The rise in price-to-earnings ratios has led to stock and credit valuations reaching historical highs, particularly in Europe and China, where performance is now close to long-term averages and no longer undervalued.
Although stock valuations are high, this does not completely suppress the possibility of further increases. However, high valuations may exert some pressure on future returns.
Large American technology companies have performed well, primarily due to strong profit growth, and their valuation levels reflect their quality fundamentals rather than excessive market hype.
Risk Analysis
The two main risks mentioned in the report are:
Recent market optimism has already preemptively exhausted some returns, making the market more susceptible to adjustments.
There are still many unknowns regarding tariff risks, which may bring uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs emphasizes the strategy of 'diversified investment and obtaining excess returns (alpha)' to address these risks.
Specific strategies include:
Broaden investment scope and participate in more asset classes;
Look for potential value investment opportunities;
Achieve geographical diversification in investments to spread risks.
6. Market Views of Morgan Stanley
Core Themes
Market valuations are high. Morgan Stanley believes that current market valuations are generally too high, and most investors no longer see asset prices as cheap. Therefore, it is recommended to prioritize obtaining excess returns (alpha) through optimizing asset allocation and investment choices, rather than relying solely on overall market returns (beta).
The bull market is entering an optimistic phase. The market is entering the 'optimistic phase' of a bull market, which is typically the later stage of a bull market, followed closely by the 'euphoric phase,' the final surge before a bear market arrives. Morgan Stanley states, 'The market performance in 2025 is still worth looking forward to.'
The impact of generative AI on the private equity market is considered one of the key themes for 2025. The rapid development of this technology may bring new opportunities and challenges to private equity investment.
Summary and Recommendations
Common trends and themes can be found in the perspectives of major institutions, such as high market valuations, the impact of AI technology, and the importance of diversified investment. This content can serve as a reference for investors in formulating strategies.
It should be noted that these views are not absolute truths, but rather provide different perspectives for investors to compare and analyze.
If this content gains attention, I plan to write a dedicated article exploring the prospects of the cryptocurrency market. If there are other reports or materials from research institutions worth noting, please feel free to recommend them to me; I am very willing to explore further.