Original author: Stoic
Original translation: TechFlow
We distill the core viewpoints of the world's top institutions for you, saving you the time of reading hundreds of pages of reports.
Data sources: J.P. Morgan, Blackrock, Deutsche Wealth, World Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
1. J.P. Morgan’s core view
Global economic growth: The global economy is expected to maintain growth in 2025, but China's economy may slow down significantly.
Stock Market Forecast: SP 500 is expected to reach 6,500 points, but global stock markets are likely to show divergent performance.
Global Market Outlook
In the coming months, market trends will be influenced by the interaction between macroeconomic trends and monetary policy, while policy changes from the new US administration will also bring uncertainty.
Technological innovation, especially the 'continuation of the AI boom,' will become an important driver of the market.
Interest rate outlook
Benchmark forecasts suggest that global economic growth is resilient, but the persistence of inflation will limit the scope for further easing of monetary policy in 2025.
However, a new Trump administration may bring risks, as overly aggressive trade and immigration policies could impact the supply side and undermine global market confidence.
Benchmark scenario forecast
Global economic growth is strong.
U.S. stocks and gold are expected to perform well, but the outlook for oil and base metals is not optimistic.
2. Blackrock's core viewpoints
Special market environment: The current market is in a special phase where long-term assets react exceptionally strongly to short-term events.
Investment strategy: Continue to favor risk assets, further increasing positions in U.S. stocks, as the 'AI theme is rapidly expanding.'
Inflation and interest rates: Inflation and interest rates are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels.
2025 market outlook
Inflation pressures: Due to intensified geopolitical fragmentation and accelerated spending driven by 'AI infrastructure construction and low-carbon transition,' inflation pressures are expected to persist.
Fed policy: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates significantly, and rates are expected to remain above 4%.
Long-term bond yields: Given the budget deficit, sticky inflation, and heightened market volatility, investors may demand higher risk premiums, leading to rising long-term government bond yields.
Key investment themes
AI-driven investment boom: The AI race will continue to drive market investment.
U.S. stocks continue to lead: U.S. stocks are expected to continue performing well, but investors need to be flexible in responding to market changes.
Pay attention to risk signals: Such as soaring long-term bond yields or escalating trade protectionism, which may become key signals for adjusting investment strategies.
3. Deutsche Wealth's core viewpoints
In the context of a 'challenging economic environment,' inflation may remain high due to 'higher fiscal spending and potential tariff increases.'
'This will limit the central bank's space to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts, forcing them to seek a balance between growth and inflation control. This uncertainty may alter market expectations and trigger more volatility than in 2024. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts caused by changes in trade policy may further exacerbate market instability.'
Asset allocation themes
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, with robust economic growth and strong investment.
Focus on growth stocks, but remain wary of high volatility risks.
Corporate profit growth and large-scale stock buybacks will benefit the U.S. stock market.
Investment recommendations:
Focus on the long-term positive trends in economic growth.
It is recommended to adopt a diversified investment portfolio and engage in active risk management.
Key points overview
Despite geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, global economic growth is expected to rise slightly from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025-26.
Despite some improvement in short-term growth prospects, growth in most global economies remains below the average level of the 2010s.
Global inflation is expected to decline slowly, averaging 3.5% in 2025. Central banks may remain cautious in terms of policy easing.
Geopolitical conflicts and climate disasters remain risks, especially affecting vulnerable economies more significantly.
Policy recommendations include supporting green and digital transformation, promoting debt relief, and improving food security.
4. World Bank Group 2025 outlook highlights
Despite facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, global economic growth is expected to remain at 2.6% in 2024. By 2025-2026, as trade and investment gradually recover, this growth rate may rise slightly to 2.7%.
Although short-term growth prospects have improved, overall performance remains weak. During the 2024-2025 period, nearly 60% of global economies are expected to grow below the average level of the 2010s, representing over 80% of global economic output and population.
Global inflation is expected to ease at a slower pace than previously anticipated, with this year's average inflation rate reaching 3.5%. Due to ongoing inflation pressures, central banks may be more cautious in easing monetary policies.
In recent years, multiple shocks have caused many emerging markets and developing economies to stagnate in their pursuit of developed economies. Data shows that nearly half of EMDEs are lagging behind developed economies between 2020 and 2024. For those severely affected by conflict, the future outlook is even bleaker.
Although risks are somewhat balanced, the overall trend remains dominated by downside risks. Key risks include:
Continued geopolitical tensions.
Global trade fragmentation may intensify.
High interest rates may persist for a long time, compounded by ongoing inflationary pressures.
Frequent natural disasters related to climate change.
To address the challenges mentioned above, global policies need to focus on the following areas:
Maintaining the stability of the international trade system.
Promoting green and digital transformation to support sustainable economic development.
Providing debt relief support to help alleviate the pressures on highly indebted countries.
Improving food security, especially in vulnerable economies.
For emerging markets and developing economies, high debt and its servicing costs pose a severe challenge. These countries need to find a balance between meeting enormous investment demands and maintaining fiscal sustainability.
To achieve long-term economic and social development goals, countries need to adopt the following policy measures:
Increasing productivity growth to drive economic efficiency improvements.
Improving the efficiency of public investment to ensure proper use of funds.
Strengthening human capital development, such as education and skills training.
Narrowing the gender gap in the labor market and increasing female labor participation.
5. Goldman Sachs' key viewpoints
'2025: A key year for exploring excess returns'
Interest rate declines occurring simultaneously with economic growth may benefit the stock market.
Current stock valuations are nearing high levels, and future profit growth will be the main driver of market momentum.
Since October 2023, global stock markets have risen by 40%, making the market more susceptible to negative news shocks.
The S&P 500 index's gains are among the strongest since 1928. The Nasdaq index has risen over 50%, while NVIDIA's gains have reached as high as 264%. This trend is mainly driven by expectations of 'inflation peaking' and 'a shift in Fed policy.'
The rise in price-to-earnings ratios has led to historical highs in stock and credit valuations, especially as performance in the European and Chinese markets has approached long-term averages, no longer in undervalued territory.
Although stock valuations are high, this does not completely suppress the possibility of further increases. However, high valuations may exert some pressure on future returns.
Large U.S. technology companies have performed excellently, mainly due to strong profit growth, and their valuation levels reflect their quality fundamentals rather than market overexuberance.
Risk analysis
The two main risks mentioned in the report are:
Recent market optimism has already preemptively consumed some returns, making the market more susceptible to adjustment shocks.
There are still many unknown factors regarding tariff risks, which may bring uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs emphasizes the strategy of 'diversifying investments and obtaining excess returns (alpha)' to cope with these risks.
Specific strategies include:
Broaden the investment scope and participate in more asset classes;
Look for potential value investment opportunities;
Achieve geographical diversification in investments to spread risk.
6. Morgan Stanley's market view
Core themes
Market valuations are high. Morgan Stanley believes that current market valuations are generally too high, and most investors no longer consider asset prices to be cheap. Therefore, it is recommended to prioritize obtaining excess returns (alpha) through optimized asset allocation and investment choices rather than relying solely on overall market returns (beta).
The bull market is entering an optimistic phase. The market is moving into the 'optimistic phase' of the bull market, which is typically a later stage of the bull market, potentially followed by the 'euphoric phase,' the final sprint before a bear market. Morgan Stanley states, 'The market performance in 2025 is still worth looking forward to.'
The impact of generative AI on the private equity market. The potential impact of generative AI is considered one of the key themes for 2025. The rapid development of this technology may bring new opportunities and challenges to private equity investment.
Summary and recommendations
Common trends and themes can be found in the perspectives of major institutions, such as high market valuations, the impact of AI technology, and the importance of diversified investment. These insights can serve as a reference for investors in formulating strategies.
It is important to note that these views are not absolute truths but rather provide different perspectives for investors to compare and analyze.
If this content receives attention, I plan to write a dedicated article exploring the prospects of the cryptocurrency market. If there are other reports or materials from research institutions worth noting, please feel free to recommend them; I am very willing to further research.