Gambling is part of human nature; everything can be bet on, even murder cases. The prediction market platform Kalshi launched a sensational betting contract on the UnitedHealth Insurance murder case, which immediately drew the attention of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the contract was forced to halt just two days after its launch.
'Murder betting' was forced to stop just two days after its start.
The largest health insurance company in the U.S. (UnitedHealthcare) was executed in a shooting on December 5 on the streets of New York, and American police immediately launched a massive search and arrested 26-year-old suspect Luigi Mangione. The prosecution accuses Mangione's motive for the crime as stemming from hatred for the U.S. healthcare insurance industry, and he is currently charged with murder.
According to Bloomberg reports, a week after the murder, the prediction market platform Kalshi surprisingly launched prediction contracts related to the case, allowing users to bet on whether the suspect Mangione would be extradited, commit the crime alone, plead guilty, or be convicted.
The 'murder betting' launched by Kalshi was only two days old when it drew regulatory concerns and was forced to stop. Currently, neither Kalshi nor the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has responded to this matter, but according to CFTC regulations, any contract trading related to crime that does not serve the public interest is prohibited from being listed.
The betting contract for the UnitedHealth Insurance murder suspect launched by Kalshi. The trading market 'has become purely gambling,' potentially affecting the outcome of Mangione's trial.
Although such special 'prediction contracts' have attracted much attention, they have also sparked considerable criticism and ethical controversy in the market. Some netizens have stated that this has exceeded the scope of hedging risks and is merely gambling. Experts have also commented: 'It is really outrageous that someone is cold-blooded enough to bet on whether a murder suspect confesses or not? This clearly shows the market's indifference to human nature and ethics.'
Although Kalshi has currently stopped, another prediction market platform, Polymarket, is still trading related contracts. More concerning is that suspect Mangione's lawyer fears these public contracts may further influence the trial's outcome.
There are still prediction contracts for Mangione on Polymarket. Rapid listing and lack of review time have led to ongoing regulatory challenges from the CFTC.
Currently, the CFTC is in an awkward position. Now exchanges can quickly list new products by self-certification, and the CFTC only has one day to review, leading to many controversial contracts having the opportunity to be listed first. Although the CFTC has the authority to halt trading, these contracts actually remain in a 'temporarily legal' gray area during the review period.
The key issue with such problems is actually that the U.S. court ruled in October that Kalshi could continue to offer contracts related to elections, opening the door for the prediction contract market. Balancing market freedom with ethical standards is a significant challenge that the CFTC must face.
(Could it affect Polymarket? CFTC appeals prediction market Kalshi's ruling, pursuing concerns over election market manipulation)
A new battlefield for the market and law: Where will prediction contracts go in the future?
As early as 30 years ago, there was a precedent for betting on the O.J. Simpson murder case in the UK, but many operators chose not to follow suit due to ethical considerations. However, the current 'prediction contract' market continues to expand with the emergence of new exchanges, such as Robinhood and Interactive Brokers, which have also launched trading contracts related to elections.
There is a belief that if the CFTC fails to establish clear regulations in a timely manner, similar 'murder betting' prediction contracts may become increasingly common in the future, potentially becoming a norm in the market. Brian Quintenz, who serves as a16z's crypto policy director and has joined the board of Kalshi, has interviewed for the CFTC chair position with the incoming Trump administration, and whether Quintenz will take office remains a matter of public interest, which may influence the future regulatory direction of the CFTC.
(a16z crypto policy director Quintenz is invited to interview for CFTC chair by Trump, having been favored for his background as a Republican CFTC commissioner)
This article 'UnitedHealth Insurance Shooting Case' becomes a betting market! Kalshi and Polymarket prediction contracts stir controversy, and the CFTC faces ongoing regulatory challenges first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.