On the last Monday of 2024, how should Bitcoin face the new year?
Based on AICoin data charts, the following analysis will be conducted from both long-term and short-term perspectives, combining pattern theory and technical indicators to analyze the current trend.
1. Long-term Analysis
Trend Analysis
Since December 22, the price has shown an overall declining trend.
Despite multiple rebounds during the period (such as December 24, 26, and 27), these rebounds failed to break the previous highs, indicating that bears still dominate.
Pattern Analysis
M-top Pattern (Double Top Pattern)
Between December 25 and December 27, the price rose to around 100,000 twice before falling back, forming a clear double top pattern.
Neckline Position: Around 95,000, the price broke below this level on December 27, confirming the pattern.
Subsequent Trend: After the pattern completion, the price continued to decline, consistent with the typical declining characteristics following an M-top formation.
Descending Channel
Since December 27, the price has been in a gradually decreasing high and low channel.
Upper Pressure Line: Each rebound has not broken through the upper edge of the channel, indicating significant bearish pressure.
Lower Support Line: The current price is close to the lower edge of the channel and may temporarily find support.
Long-term Support and Resistance
Important Support: 93,000: A key short-term support level, if broken, will further test 92,500.
Important Resistance: 96,000: If there is a rebound, this will be an important resistance level, and a breakthrough could look toward 97,500.
2. Short-term Analysis
Candlestick Pattern
Decline-Rebound-Decline Again: Recently (from December 28 to 30), the price has once again experienced a round of decline, forming a low-level consolidation pattern.
The current candlestick is relatively short, indicating an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment, with both bulls and bears temporarily balanced.
Volume Analysis
The volume histogram shows: an increase in volume during the decline, indicating market capital recognizes the bearish direction.
During the current low-level consolidation, trading volume gradually decreases, indicating that wait-and-see sentiment is rising.
Technical Indicators
MACD: The hourly MACD is below the zero line, with DIF and DEA both diverging downwards, indicating a dominant bearish force. The daily MACD is also below the zero line, and both DIF and DEA continue to decline, further confirming the bearish trend.
RSI: The hourly RSI value hovers between 30 and 40, approaching the oversold area, but no significant rebound signs are seen. The daily RSI is around 40, also indicating a weak state.
EMA: The hourly EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 all show a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages below long-term moving averages, indicating that the current market remains bearish. The daily EMA also shows a bearish arrangement, EMA7
3. Today's Trend Prediction
Combining long-term and short-term analysis, today's trend may have two main scenarios:
Scenario 1: Continuing Decline (higher probability)
Trigger Condition: If the price breaks below 93,500 (key support level).
Downward Target: Short-term: 92,500 (previous important low). Long-term: 91,000 (lower support area).
Accompanying Features: Trading volume may increase. Candlestick may close as a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow.
Scenario 2: Technical Rebound (lower probability)
Trigger Condition: If the price rises to 94,000 and breaks 94,500.
Rebound Target: Short-term: 95,500 (top of the consolidation range). Long-term: 97,000 (stronger resistance).
Accompanying Features: Trading volume moderately increases. Candlestick closes as a long bullish candle or doji.
4. Comprehensive Recommendations
Bearish Strategy:
If the price breaks below 93,500, follow the trend to open a short position, with a profit target set at 92,500.
Stop-loss position set above 94,000 to control risk.
Bullish Strategy:
If the price rebounds and breaks above 95,000, a small long position may be attempted, with a profit target set at 96,500.
Stop-loss position can be set below 93,800 to protect funds.
Risk Warning:
Be cautious of false breakouts, especially in cases of low trading volume.
Closely monitor market sentiment changes and external macro factors (such as economic data or policy trends).
In summary, the recent candlestick trend still leans bearish, suggesting that key support and resistance breakout situations should be observed, and then combined with trading volume and technical indicators to choose the entry direction.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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