If we only look at the current retracement depth of Bitcoin, there is no need to reduce bullish market expectations at all. Seeing 34k in April is not unreasonable at all. If we also consider on-chain data, the outlook becomes even more optimistic.

The issue lies in the differentiation of altcoins. If we look at the indices, there is definitely a reason to lower expectations, but there's no need to assume it will end in February. I believe that seeing 34k in April is still not a big problem, and after May, I think we need to reassess.

I think the current retracement is fundamentally no different from the retracements in January 2021 and April 2021.

So the next step is to determine where the bottom of the altcoins actually is. Although I think it should be around the previous spike, if it ultimately turns out to be more than 10% lower than the previous low, then I believe we can still maintain bullish expectations for March at the latest.

Moreover, I think the most important factor is still BTC. As long as Bitcoin doesn't break down, altcoins can surge in just a few days.