On Friday, U.S. stock indices fell across the board, with the Nasdaq down 2.2%, the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and the Dow Jones down 1%. Vanda Research data shows that Nvidia raised $29.8 billion this year, surpassing Tesla as the stock with the largest net inflow this year. Economist Gregory Daco stated that when the Federal Reserve revisits its interest rate predictions in the spring of next year, it may present a more dovish view.
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OpenAI CEO Altman aims to transform this non-profit managed AI development company into a for-profit entity, but the biggest obstacle he faces is Microsoft, which has significant influence in the process due to its commitment to invest over $13 billion in OpenAI. If OpenAI fails to complete the transition within the next two years, recent investors can retrieve their funds along with 9% interest, totaling about $7.2 billion. Strive Asset Management has applied to U.S. regulators for approval to list an ETF that invests in convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other companies, which is intended to provide exposure to 'BTC bonds', described as 'convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy or other companies'. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that in 2024, 1.55 million BTC flowed into accumulation addresses, mainly related to ETFs, MicroStrategy, and custody addresses. Santiment reports that CEX dashboard data shows that after a general decline in the Christmas market, whales are transferring stablecoins to platforms. Although this does not guarantee that whales will immediately use these stablecoins, it can be seen as a signal as 2024 comes to a close. Historically, Santiment notes that the $110,000 BTC price is often seen when the public no longer expects it. Former SEC litigation advisor Teresa Goody Guillen stated that the SEC is expected to reduce the number of cases against cryptocurrency companies in the new year, and will only be able to file lawsuits involving securities. If the lawsuit does not involve securities, bad actors must be referred to other regulatory agencies, such as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Analyst Jake Ostrovskis stated in an interview that traditional hedge funds have been waiting for ETFs to provide access to cryptocurrencies, and now they are moving quickly because they see opportunities in the market. He believes that the corporate capital pool is stronger, and this trend will become an important driving force next year, especially with the entry of institutional investors. GreeksLive analyst Adam stated that December 27 is the annual delivery date for $18 billion in options, with the maximum pain point for BTC options at $85,000 and a notional value of $14.17 billion. The maximum pain point for ETH options is $3,000, with a notional value of $3.74 billion. BTC is expected to double in 2024, especially with the end-of-year market rally since November, leading to very optimistic expectations for 2025. In January next year, Trump will take office, and crypto supporter Musk will also have greater influence. Whether it is mainstream finance's deeper integration with crypto or the U.S. and major companies holding BTC, it will have a positive impact on the entire crypto market. Based on past bull market experiences, the next few months will likely see a sector rotation bull market. On December 26, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $475.15 million, including $56.5 million net inflow from BlackRock IBIT and $254.4 million net inflow from Fidelity FBTC. The U.S. ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $117.7 million. Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead stated that BTC's price trend consistently follows a four-year halving cycle. The halving leads to reduced supply, and BTC typically sees significant increases. Based on historical trends, BTC is projected to peak in August 2025, with a promising outlook.
As of December 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is 219,000, with the number of continuing claims rising to 1.91 million. The number of repeat claims shows a gradual upward trend, indicating that the job market is cooling down, but it has not yet reached a level that would concern the Federal Reserve. Economist Gregory Daco stated that when the Federal Reserve revisits its interest rate predictions in the spring of next year, it may present a more dovish view. Given the data-dependent nature of the Federal Reserve, the heightened expectations for interest rate cuts are not surprising. Vanda Research data shows that Nvidia has raised $29.8 billion this year, surpassing Tesla to become the stock with the largest net purchase by retail investors this year, reflecting that investors are still chasing the tech stock bull market. Citi analysts predict that the cryptocurrency market will see growth in 2025, driven by factors including Trump's policies, increased ETF inflows, and stablecoin innovations. The SEC members nominated by Trump and their supportive stance on cryptocurrencies are shaping a more favorable market for digital assets, and ETFs have opened the door for more U.S. institutional investors. On Friday, U.S. stock indices fell across the board, with the Nasdaq down 2.2%, the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and the Dow Jones down 1%. BTC fell by 2%, with altcoins following suit for half a month. Today, Ethereum and some altcoins turned green. During the double festival period, liquidity decreased, and the market was quiet, not yet reflecting the capital inflow prospects for the new year. Analysts and institutions in the cryptocurrency market have traditionally focused on 'tradition'. In the first quarter of 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024, the market has shown strong recoveries. Now, as we approach the first quarter of 2025, there is hope for a strong performance again in the first quarter, and a positive outlook for the new year.