Article Source: ChainCatcher
Authors: Scof, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Correction time - This article provides a one-stop review of the popular predictions and actual performances in the crypto industry for 2024, examining how many of the predictions made last year by top investment research institutions like Binance Labs, Coinbase Venture, a16z, Messari, and Pantera Capital have come true. After all, their predictions for this year have also been released.
Prediction is a contest of intelligence and vision, while the market gives the answer with cruel reality. Get ready, let’s take a look at this year's crypto landscape!
❌ Represents that this prediction is incorrect or not completely accurate
☑️ Represents that the prediction is correct
⭕️ Represents that it is not completely accurate and has room for discussion
Binance Labs
Related Reading: (Binance Research Annual Report: 8 Key Points for 2024)
2024 Prediction:
⭕️ Bitcoin narratives remain at the forefront; the Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystems are expected to develop further.
☑️ Further development of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePin)
☑️ Decentralized social media (DeSoc) further develops
☑️ Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) increases
☑️ Growth of Real World Assets (RWA)
❌ Liquidity management and request-for-quote (RFQ) systems thrive
☑️ More institutions joining the crypto space
☑️ Account abstraction becomes more important
Summary:
Overall, the 2024 market has validated most of Binance Research's predictions, especially regarding trends in AI integration, institutional participation, and the tokenization of real-world assets. Although the Bitcoin ecosystem, represented by Ordinals and BRC-20, had a good start at the beginning of 2024, it did not develop as imagined, as the Bitcoin price continually set new records, but rather became forgotten in the market's sector rotation and fell into silence. Additionally, the 'further development' of decentralized social media (DeSoc) is somewhat factual, with the social track welcoming new stars like Farcaster, UXLINK, and CyberConnect, while also experiencing the fall from grace of Friend.Tech and its stagnation. Compared to other tracks, the development of the decentralized track still faces many controversies and challenges.
Coinbase Venture
Related Reading: (Coinbase 2024 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's Dominance Strengthens, Optimistic about DePIN and Decentralized Computing)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, with institutional investment concentrated in Bitcoin.
☑️ The macroeconomic environment supports cryptocurrencies
☑️ Web3 applications continue to develop, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users
☑️ Tokenization and asset digitization attract traditional financial institutions
☑️ The rise of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized computing
☑️ Progress in regulation and legislation, promoting institutional participation
☑️ A more user-friendly experience and technological innovation
Summary:
These predictions are mostly consistent with current market dynamics, particularly the dominance of Bitcoin and the increase in institutional investment, which has already become evident in 2024. Macroeconomic factors, due to the assumption of the Trump administration and the realization of interest rate cuts, have gradually made cryptocurrencies a target for traditional institutions.
Coinbase's 2025 outlook has been released -
Related Reading: (Transformational Growth: Coinbase 2025 Bitcoin Crypto Market Outlook Full Report)
a16z
Related Reading: (a16z 2024 Outlook List: Modularization, AI, Web3 Games...)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ Technological advancements improving user experience
☑️ The value of modular technology increases
☑️ The potential of combining AI and blockchain
☑️ Transition from 'play to earn' to 'play while earning'
❌ The popularization of NFTs as brand assets
❌ The maturity of SNARKs technology
Summary:
Clearly, a16z misjudged the development of NFTs this year. NFTs faced what could be termed a dark moment this year, with luxury brand NFTs reaching a peak of brand assetization during the last bull market. Moreover, compared to last year, the decline of Layer2 and cross-chain bridges against the backdrop of meme frenzy has led to minimal discussion regarding project fundamentals and pure technology within the crypto market. The popularization of SNARKs technology faces challenges, but overall, the industry will continue to develop towards more operable, participatory, and diversified directions.
a16z's 2025 outlook has been released -
Related Reading: (A16Z's Outlook on 2025 Crypto Trends: AI, Decentralization, and Stablecoins will trigger industry changes?)
Messari
Related Reading:
(Messari 2024 Investment Predictions: Pessimistic about ETH, optimistic about new narratives of AI, DePIN, and DeSci)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ The optimistic prospects of emerging narratives
Messari holds an optimistic attitude towards emerging narratives such as DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network), AI, DeSoc (Decentralized Society), and DeSci (Decentralized Science), while strongly optimistic about the combination of AI and cryptocurrency, believing these directions will continue to connect the Web3 concept with the social and technological fields of the real world.
❌ The development potential of DeSoc (Decentralized Social)
❌ Circle may go public in 2024.
☑️ The rise of DeSci (Decentralized Science)
☑️ Bearish on Ethereum; compared to Solana, Ethereum does not have an overwhelming advantage.
Summary:
Messari, as a well-established investment research institution, did not disappoint and accurately identified the 'AI agent' track, which had multiple standout performances this year, while also showing goodwill towards the DeSci track, which had not yet become hot last year. Additionally, their speculation on Solana and ETH as the 'Kings of Public Chains' has been strongly validated by the market. SOL's strong performance this year is evident and has sparked many to question the subsequent bull market prices of the Ethereum ecosystem. Unfortunately, their assessment of DeSoc did not align with reality, as DeSoc failed to recreate the hype similar to the 'DeFi Summer' of 2022.
Messari's 2025 outlook has been released -
Related Reading: (Interpreting Messari's 2025 Crypto Industry Outlook: Bitcoin will be better next year, Meme fervor will continue)
Pantera Capital
Related Reading:
(Pantera Capital: 2024 Crypto Outlook)
(Pantera Capital partners release 6 major predictions for the crypto field in 2024)
2024 Predictions:
❌ The revival of Bitcoin and 'DeFi Summer 2.0'
☑️ The rise of tokenized social experiences
☑️ The increase of bridges like stablecoins and mirrored assets between TradFi and DeFi
☑️ The combination of modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP)
❌ Computing-intensive applications going on-chain
☑️ Integration and application chain models of blockchain ecosystems
☑️ Areas to watch in 2024 - Artificial Intelligence: Merging Human and Computer Intelligence
Summary:
Like many other institutions, influenced by the strong performance of inscriptions and Bitcoin's second-layer narrative in 2023, Pantera Capital also misjudged the trend of the Bitcoin ecosystem. 2024 can be termed as a year belonging to Bitcoin (its increase far exceeds that of most altcoins), but even though the Bitcoin ecosystem shows decent growth, it still cannot be termed 'DeFi Summer 2.0.' Notably, as more people realize the considerable returns from stablecoin businesses, TradFi-DeFi sees decent growth in 2024. Additionally, like other institutions, Pantera also correctly predicted that AI would experience a significant explosion and growth in 2024.
OKX Venture
Related Reading:
(OKX Ventures 2024 Outlook: Key Projects and 7 Major Predictions)
(OKX Ventures 2024 Bitcoin Outlook Report)
2024 Predictions:
⭕️ BTC expansion and application explosion will enhance network security through increased on-chain activity.
☑️ Ethereum's Cancun upgrade enhances Layer2 usability, leading the industry forward
☑️ Represented by Solana, Alt-layer1 ecosystems will benefit from the industry's recovery.
☑️ The narrative of AI is closely integrated with Web3 technology, leading to the emergence of new applications
❌ New paradigms for blockchain gaming explosions, single-point breakthroughs in FOCG (Fully Onchain Game)
☑️ DePIN continues to maintain high growth
☑️ A favorable macro environment, entering a new era of crypto
Summary:
From this year's overall performance, OKX Venture's expectations for blockchain gaming are still overly optimistic; FOCG paradigm projects have not shown significant growth, and GameFi is still just shouting 'the easiest to attract traffic' without notable user growth. Additionally, the performance of DePin projects this year can only be described as passing, with some commendable projects, but the volatility of profitability and potential privacy issues remain two major challenges to solve. Overall, how the Crypto space can attract more user participation from Web 2 still has significant research space.
OKX Venture's 2025 outlook has been released -
Related Reading: (OKX Ventures Annual Report: 60+ Project Layouts and 14 Major Trends Outlook)
Blockworks
Related Reading:
(Blockworks' Outlook on the 2024 Crypto Market)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ The rise of Solana:
The market value of Solana may approach or even surpass Ethereum, generating significant wealth effects in the NFT and DeFi sectors.
Multiple rounds of airdrops and at least ten unicorns will emerge within the Solana ecosystem.
☑️ The evolution of Ethereum:
Ethereum's developer activity and connectivity will further enhance, and the narrative will shift from 'supersonic currency' to other directions.
Ethereum's L2 technology will develop, but interoperability issues may still remain unresolved in 2024.
❌ The prosperity of the NFT market:
NFTs will see growth due to the wealth effect and capital inflow, with some series (like Mad Lads) potentially reaching a floor price of $100,000 each.
JPEG investments will become an important trend in the first and second quarters of 2024.
☑️ The revival of Bitcoin:
The launch of Bitcoin's L2 will drive the activity of DeFi and other ecosystems, potentially breaking historical highs.
Bitcoin ETFs may be approved in early 2024, but their market impact remains unclear.
☑️ The future of DeFi:
The Solana and Ethereum ecosystems will welcome new DeFi projects and activities.
The popularity of staking may bring issues of security and vulnerability.
☑️ Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency:
AI-related tokens are expected to reach a frenzy peak in 2024, and the market value may exceed $100 billion.
The linkage between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets:
❌ Coinbase will further transform into a bank-like institution, with a valuation potentially exceeding $100 billion.
☑️ The U.S. will rise again as the center of crypto activity in 2024, alternating leadership in the market with Asia.
❌ The potential of gaming and social finance:
Gaming will become an important catalyst for retail participation in cryptocurrencies. Social finance and music NFTs may become new hotspots in the market.
Blockworks' 2025 outlook has been released -
(Blockworks co-founders' 27 predictions for 2025: The U.S. becomes the crypto center, Base will be a major competitor to Solana)
Summary:
Blockworks' prediction for the 2024 crypto market has been partially validated. The strong rise of Solana indeed aligns with predictions, significantly boosting its market value and creating a wealth effect in the meme space. However, despite Solana's strong performance on certain metrics, the prediction of its market value approaching or surpassing Ethereum has yet to be realized.
Although the NFT market showed some signs of recovery in the second half of the year, the anticipated 'JPEG wave' did not materialize, with only a few high-end NFT series attracting significant attention. AI-related tokens did indeed trigger a wave of excitement, but many tokens still appear to be overvalued. The combination of AI and Crypto currently seems more like a financing tool, with a considerable distance yet to cover before true technological implementation. Additionally, despite a rise in DeFi activity, staking-related security issues did not explode as expected, and the maturity of technology still needs further testing over time.
IOBC Capital
Related Reading: (IOBC Capital: 10 Predictions for 2024)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ After the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, it may bring an incremental funding of over $30 billion.
❌ The total market value of Bitcoin's ecosystem inscriptions may reach $20B+, with only truly Fair Launch leading MEME having medium to long-term consensus.
☑️ Bitcoin Layer2 will see rapid development, benefiting Bitcoin's ecosystem application Infra
❌ Ethereum Layer2 TVL will surpass Ethereum Layer1, potentially reaching over $100 billion.
☑️ The TVL volume of ZK Rollup still cannot match that of Optimistic Rollup, but the zk modular combinations of Ethereum Layer2 components will tend to be complete.
☑️ Layerzero will issue tokens in the first half of the year, likely igniting the entire chain track.
⭕️ The new narrative of Parallel EVM will drive secondary growth for chains like Sei v2
⭕️ The market size of DePIN may grow tenfold
❌ Potential explosive Autonomous Worlds / Fully on-chain games with strong social attributes may appear
☑️ There will be star cases of AI and Crypto merging in multiple application scenarios.
Summary:
IOBC Capital's predictions for 2024 are comprehensive and bold, but clearly, these predictions are overly optimistic. The rune market in the first half of 2024 briefly extended last year's Bitcoin inscription ecosystem's craze, but soon followed by the cruel reality of 'half cuts again and again'; many public chains in Ethereum Layer 2 did not gain user approval, with a significant gap between TVL and the Ethereum mainnet, with the highest TVL this year being $55.3 billion in December; Layerzero welcomed TGE in mid-year, but the process was also fraught with difficulties. Due to the market's downturn, while the entire chain track is still accelerating development, it has not reached the desired climax; the DePIN track indeed saw tremendous growth this year, but the prediction of a tenfold market size growth is somewhat optimistic, growing from $9 billion at the beginning of the year to about $25 billion by year-end (rough estimate).
HTX Venture
Related Reading:
(HTX Ventures 2023 Annual Review)
2024 Predictions:
⭕️ Trading innovation: The birth of mature trading bots and new trading infrastructure witnesses continuous innovations in trading mechanisms, suggesting more dynamic and efficient market interactions.
☑️ Evolution of Layer 2: Driven by the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade, fierce competition among Layer 2 solutions may lead to significant advancements in scalability and efficiency, further solidifying the critical role of this track.
❌ Web3 and X-Fi dynamics: The shift to genuine Web3 projects (e.g., the success of platforms like Friend.tech) marks a more comprehensive approach, integrating social and gaming elements into the crypto space.
☑️ Integration with traditional finance: Discussions surrounding Bitcoin ETFs and Real World Assets (RWA), especially regarding the possibility of a breakthrough for Bitcoin spot ETFs, highlight the increasing integration of traditional finance and the crypto industry, likely marking a new era of market growth and mainstream recognition.
Summary:
These predictions have been partially validated, especially regarding the integration with traditional finance. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly boosted institutional capital inflow and enhanced market confidence, with the crypto industry gradually being accepted by mainstream finance. However, the predictions regarding trading innovation and the dynamics of Web3 and X-Fi have not been fully realized. Although there has been progress in the development of trading bots and new infrastructure, it has not brought revolutionary changes to market interactions; additionally, Friend.tech faced an embarrassing slump this year.
HTX Ventures' 2025 outlook has been released -
(HTX Ventures Report: The current market is still far from the peak of the bull market, and will continue to focus on meme coins, AI coins, etc.)
Bankless
Related Reading:
(Bankless: 2024 Will Be the Year of AI + Crypto Cycle)
(Six major crypto themes that Bankless will focus on in 2024: LRT, DA Wars, Parallel EVM)
☑️ EigenLayer breaks through $10 billion in TVL
❌ 1 million ETH burned
❌ ETH Layer2 shifts to optimizing VM and parallel EVM
❌ Solana downtime
Summary:
From the actual market conditions, some of these predictions have been realized, but they tend to be optimistic overall. EigenLayer's performance has indeed been impressive, with TVL breaking $10 billion, proving that the restaking model has received high recognition from the market. However, the burning amount of 1 million ETH has not been reached (as of press time, data shows that the burning amount over the past year is 472,000 ETH). Despite an increase in Ethereum's network activity, the trading volume and usage have not propelled the burning amount to meet expectations.
Regarding the development of ETH Layer2, the current focus remains on scalability optimization (such as zkEVM and Optimistic Rollup). The exploration of parallel EVM has sparked discussion but has not become the mainstream direction. This prediction clearly overestimates the speed of technological transformation in the short term. Conversely, the prediction of Solana downtime did not come true. Instead, Solana has made significant progress in stability.
