After Christmas, there was a full trading day for US stocks. BTC remained above 94,000
This shows that in the current low liquidity situation, although the market sentiment is not very good, it is not very bad either. Especially today is Friday and tomorrow is the weekend, liquidity will continue to be sluggish. Be cautious with leverage. Without strong emotional stimulation, this volatile and frustrating market will continue for a while.
There are no conditions for a sharp drop in the short term. Before the end of the year, due to factors such as institutional financial reports, funds will leave the market or take risk-averse actions. It is normal for the market to weaken in the short term, and demand may recover in January next year.
Current market liquidity
From the 6-hour chart, Bitcoin has shown signs of net inflow, indicating that market funds are flowing in. This is a very important signal, especially after the U.S. stock market opens, as Bitcoin ETF also starts to see net inflow.
The market trend in the next few days is likely to oscillate around $95,000. Recently, there has been no direct negative information, and the market has begun to digest the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Therefore, I still believe that in the absence of actual negative news, the possibility of a deep and prolonged decline is low. We are currently in a period of low liquidity due to Christmas and New Year, but market makers have started operating after the U.S. stock market opens.
Recently, many people are concerned about the impact of the EU banning USDT.
Actually, this is not complicated. If it's banned, just stop using it. Although the EU does not allow USDT, USDC is compliant, so Europeans are starting to use USDC. However, currently, the utilization rate of USDT during European hours remains very high. It’s actually hard to completely ban it; just like in certain countries, where there is demand, there is a market.
So don’t take it too seriously. A certain major country has never allowed USDT to be used, nor USDC, yet USDT is still the mainstream. Although the U.S. has not explicitly banned USDT and is not very friendly towards it, USDT’s trading volume on Coinbase is still quite good.
If you're worried about Tether collapsing, there's no need to be.
So in the future market, I still advise everyone to understand the underlying logic of the news. Just like buying altcoins, if you don’t understand the news, what’s the logic behind the altcoins you buy? Don’t be swayed by market emotions and avoid emotional trading. Only by being steady can we establish ourselves in the market and seize real opportunities to make money.
Finally
The next few days are crucial; whether we can accelerate depends on them. Will it accelerate? Or will it continue to oscillate?
In a situation where everyone is just waiting and unable to shake out positions, I believe now is a good window for acceleration. You can try to increase volume and push for a rise.
Next, we need to observe whether the market can increase volume for a rise. The importance of volume outweighs the extent of the increase. Continuous volume in smaller levels can represent the determination and willpower of the market makers.
If you have spot positions, just stay put. If you've already missed the peak, don't chase it. The current market is very strange, and a small misstep can trap you.
When there is no consensus, it's time to position. Build your position in batches and wait for the consensus to form, then you can take on higher risks.
