Amid the ever-changing world of cryptocurrencies, the trend of the Bitcoin market on December 24 was particularly eye-catching. At that time, most investors were certain that the adjustment trend of Bitcoin was set in stone, and the market was filled with a bearish atmosphere. However, at the critical moment when the price of Bitcoin dropped to $92,000, it seemed to be strongly supported by an "invisible big hand" during the trading session, and then began a rapid rebound journey, with an increase of nearly 5%. Behind this dramatic turn, what kind of force is driving funds to enter the market early to buy at the bottom, which has aroused widespread heated discussion in the market.
December 24 is a milestone day for Bitcoin's journey into mainstream investment. MicroStrategy, known as the 'first bull in the universe', has had its stock MSTR officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index. This landmark event has opened the door to the traditional financial world for Bitcoin, which was once considered a marginal alternative asset, signifying that it has now stepped into the mainstream investment realm. According to data disclosed by Bloomberg, there are now over 200 exchange-traded products (ETPs) globally that closely track the Nasdaq 100 index and its variations, with total assets reaching approximately $540 billion. MSTR's weight in the Nasdaq 100 is 0.47, which translates to up to $2.5 billion in passive buy-in funds for MSTR.
Looking back to the eve of MSTR's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on October 23, a document submitted by MicroStrategy to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) contained hidden significance. The document showed that the company was actively seeking approval to increase the authorized number of Class A common stock and preferred stock. Notably, at the time of the application, MicroStrategy had $7.08 billion in immediate issuance capacity that had not yet been utilized. This urgent expansion of financing territory speaks volumes — MicroStrategy is clearly eager to embark on a new round of Bitcoin purchases. Considering that in mid-January next year, MicroStrategy will enter a lock-up period lasting two weeks to a month, it can be inferred that major Bitcoin acquisitions are likely to be implemented in the near term. This potential variable will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the cycle and magnitude of the current Bitcoin price adjustment, even directly prompting a rebound in coin prices ahead of time. Therefore, the bottom range of this Bitcoin price adjustment is likely to be higher than the previously expected $88,000, and the entire adjustment process is expected to conclude before January 20.
Amidst the backdrop of fluctuating adjustments in the crypto market, exchange platform tokens have emerged as a surprising bright spot, demonstrating remarkable performance. Almost all major exchanges' platform tokens are showing a strong upward trend against the odds, with second-tier platform tokens represented by BGB and GT surging to set new historical highs. Analyzing the logic behind the cash flow toward platform tokens, two key considerations emerge: First, the mainstream market view firmly believes that 'short-term adjustments cannot change the long-term bull market pattern', and platform tokens, as 'bull market flagbearers', remain a highly certain investment sector, carrying the hopes of many investors; Second, under the current intensified market differentiation, platform tokens are steadily supported by their solid fundamentals, underpinning their resilient growth. From quantitative data, based on the destruction data from Q1 to Q3, the current price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for BNB and OKB are only 13 times and 15 times, respectively, clearly showcasing a valuation advantage compared to most traditional brokerages. Although Q4's relevant data has not yet been released, if we make preliminary estimates based on market trading volumes, most exchanges are expected to see revenue growth rates exceeding three digits (leading DeFi projects are even showing explosive growth of 5-10 times). Therefore, before detailed Q4 data is officially released, I firmly believe that leading platform tokens like BNB and OKB still harbor significant opportunities for valuation recovery.
However, every coin has two sides, and the low-valuation platform token sector is no exception. Indeed, investing in low-valuation platform tokens can construct a higher margin of safety for investors, providing them with a sense of security in the volatile market. However, once the cash flow situation and growth trajectory of the entire sector can be clearly and accurately predicted, it also means that the subsequent imagination space for this sector is greatly compressed. In other words, the investment path for platform tokens is more suitable for those investors with relatively low demands for excess returns, who pursue stable returns.
Recently, there has been a surge of hype surrounding AI Agents in the blockchain field, resembling a capital carnival. From the actual flow and focus of market funds, the hype hotspots are mainly concentrated in two cutting-edge areas: on one hand, focusing on AI DAOs, where many projects are exploring innovative applications of intelligent investment assistance tools and unique meme coin issuance models, with Ai16z being a representative project; on the other hand, efforts are directed towards building incentive layers for open AI systems (covering gaming, metaverse, social, and other diverse scenarios), with Virtual being a standout in this track. However, the harsh reality is that most such projects on the market are still in the elementary stage of conceptual hype and are far from the ultimate goal of AI Agents — being able to autonomously perceive the environment, learn efficiently, make precise decisions, and execute tasks perfectly. Compared to the leading projects in the previous AI wave, such as ARKM, RENDER, and TAO, the current round of projects under the banner of 'AI +' appear quite rudimentary and hollow in terms of technical depth, application breadth, and commercial feasibility. Therefore, I do not agree that these hot projects have accurately interpreted the true essence and potential of AI Agents in the blockchain field.
If one must identify potential development directions amidst this complex chaos, I personally tend to believe that the growth path of AI incentive layers aligns more closely with the core essence and value connotation of blockchain technology. Ultimately, the core value of blockchain technology is anchored in data elements, and the foundation of AI intelligent learning and decision-making is also deeply rooted in massive data. The unique decentralized architecture of blockchain, combined with an effective incentivized ecosystem, opens up a new avenue for AI development, capable of broadly attracting developers and users worldwide to collaboratively participate in the co-construction and continuous optimization of AI systems.
From the perspective of empowering AI development with blockchain, the evolution of AI is no longer limited to the monopolistic control of a few tech giants or centralized platforms, but instead opens a new chapter driven by global participants. Every participant, whether professional developers contributing cutting-edge algorithms, ordinary users providing behavioral data and language information, or creators meticulously designing interaction methods and personalized features, can receive fair and reasonable returns for their contributions through the incentive mechanisms built into blockchain, thus forming a powerful synergy that drives continuous iteration and improvement of AI systems. For instance, in creating an AI companion project with high emotional interaction capabilities, relying solely on traditional algorithm training and limited data collection methods is far from sufficient. The AI companion needs to continuously learn and dynamically evolve through real-time interaction with users, which involves not only precise training on a technical level but also capturing user emotions delicately, sparking creative collisions, and integrating diverse expressions. Developers, leveraging their expertise, meticulously develop more advanced emotional recognition algorithms; users, through their daily interactions with the AI companion, selflessly provide vast amounts of behavioral data and rich language input, assisting the AI in accurately perceiving emotions and providing thoughtful responses; creators, using their imagination, design more creative and personalized interaction modes. All these valuable contributions, aided by the incentive mechanisms of blockchain, will transform into tangible value returns, injecting a continuous development impetus into AI systems.
Overall, the integration and innovation of blockchain and AI Agents fundamentally revolve around mutual empowerment and complementing each other. Relying on the open, inclusive, fair, and efficient platform advantages of blockchain can fully stimulate the enthusiasm and creativity of all participants within the ecosystem, ensuring that their innovative achievements receive the strongest protection while opening up unobstructed monetization channels. If one must 'pick a general among the short', I believe that the narrative potential of Virtual is greater than that of Ai16z.
Returning to the investment operation level, although the current crypto market has indeed entered an adjustment cycle, it should not be overlooked that the remnants of the bull market have not yet dissipated. Funds are like agile 'hunters', always seeking suitable breakthrough directions, which means that the market will never lack trading opportunities. For those groups pursuing a stable investment style, leading platform tokens are undoubtedly an excellent choice at present, as their solid fundamentals and relatively stable return expectations can build a strong foundation for investment portfolios; whereas for those who are keen on seeking excitement and high odds returns through market sentiment games, the AI Agent track is filled with infinite possibilities and opportunities, but it inevitably comes with higher risk challenges.
