The second season of Squid Game is online. Yesterday, the entire day revolved around this IP in PVP, with DALMATIAN reaching a maximum FDV of 13M. However, such memes lack sustained habits; it is reasonable to run once profits are made.
In the altcoin space, the performance is mixed, with CEX showing the brightest performance in platform tokens. The explosion of BGB directly boosted the market for GT and CKB, but the price manipulation of BGB is obvious, and FDV is severely overvalued; it can't continue to surge at this moment.
The market has again returned to the degree where CEX loses money and DEX makes money. I hope everyone can grasp their own 'profitable' track, follow a simple model, and not force themselves to challenge their own 'abilities'.
BTC is fluctuating, oscillating between 95,000 and 100,000 for a week. The weekend is approaching again. The 4-hour chart shows a back-and-forth trend. The short-term support around 92,000 is crucial. If this position is lost, a longer period of fluctuation and adjustment will be required. Currently, the short-term trend mainly features fluctuations and adjustments.
I still maintain the view that the altcoin season is coming. What kind of altcoin season am I looking forward to?
In fact, BTC has not produced a true altcoin season from 57,000 or 67,000 to 110,000 until now.
An altcoin season must have leaders! ETH leads a group of altcoin juniors in a collective surge.
XRP is not performing, DOGE is not performing, and BGB and HYPER are even worse. They are all outliers without leadership attributes; the altcoin season requires a collective uprising, a track uprising, where various leaders bring their juniors to revolt against each other.
Regarding the ETH chart below: it can only be considered a fluctuation for now. It still has not emerged from this round's large box, and only BTC pulling itself up does not constitute a bull market in cryptocurrency.
Yesterday's dip was expected and a natural occurrence. It was time for a drop. Switching to the daily chart of ETH, the rebound that started on the 23rd has no volume. The 23rd, 24th, and 25th saw a slow upward movement with decreasing volume. At this time, it might be better to drop a bit to test the situation below.
Yesterday's decline also had no volume. BTC, ETH, and altcoins are all the same; retail investors have already laid flat.
Technically, ETH is just at the support level around 3,360. If it holds here, then ETH will form an ascending triangle.
Why is it falling?
Essentially, there is still pressure above that cannot be surpassed. BTC's resistance is at 100,000, and ETH's is at 3,540. After several attempts, there is still pressure. If it can't go up, it will wash out downward.
Under the unchanged fundamental logic, as long as it does not break the original bottom, it is still mainly about cleaning up chips. Declines are unpleasant, but they are a necessary process. Even if it does not drop, ETH's rise without volume is still useless. To experience a rapid surge, it must wait for volume.
The next period is critical. Whether we can accelerate depends on these few days. Will it accelerate? Or continue to fluctuate?
In a situation where everyone is laid flat and cannot wash out chips, I believe now is a good window for acceleration, and we can try to increase volume for a rise.
Next, we observe whether the market can increase volume for a rise. The importance of volume outweighs the increase in price; consistent volume increases at smaller levels can represent the determination and willpower of market makers.
Those with spot positions should lay flat. Those who have already escaped the top should not chase anymore. The current market is very strange, and any misstep could lead to losses.
This entire round of the market can be divided into three phases:
The first phase is from late 2022 to October 2023: the market in the first phase still follows the original cryptocurrency market's trends, which is very conventional, and we are quite accustomed to it.
Market differentiation began in the second phase, from October 2023 to October 2024: in the mid to late stage of this phase, BTC and altcoins show differing trends; BTC is in a slow bull market, moving sideways instead of down, very resilient; while altcoins are experiencing a deep bear trend during BTC's long bull cycle.
We are now in the third phase, starting from October 2024: BTC continues its bull market; however, I believe we are already in the initial stage of the altcoin bull market. The first segment is not so intense, only a few are strong, followed by a pullback, and then a big wave in altcoins.
My strategy: Use the profits (retracements) from BTC to give altcoins opportunities and wait for the altcoin leaders to rise!
The current market is still about holding coins. The decline is limited, while the rise is unlimited. Holding coins can be quite painful, which is why the saying 'holding coins is like being a widow' emerged. However, only by holding on can one see the light at the end of the tunnel!
The market makers will only pull up the price once most people have exited. It depends on whether you are a participant or the final victor!