We will experience a significant bull market, followed by a bear market, with August 2025 expected to be the peak of this cycle. This article is based on a piece written by Bankless, organized and translated by PANews. (Background: Market outlook for the next month: a mix of pain and opportunities; one must learn to profit during rotations) (Background information: Binance's Bitcoin reserves have fallen below 570,000! A new low for 2024, will the 90% surge miracle happen again?) Searching for the next 'Bitcoin' in the cryptocurrency market is a dream for many investors. As one of the most influential investment institutions in the industry, Pantera Capital bought Bitcoin at $65 in 2013, and to date, the fund's returns have exceeded 100 times. In this episode of the Bankless Podcast, founder Dan Morehead shares how he identifies assets with asymmetric return potential and his deep thoughts on the future of the cryptocurrency market. PANews has provided a text translation of this episode of the Podcast. 2013 Bitcoin Investment Bankless: Let's talk about that famous email from July 5, 2013. You suggested buying Bitcoin at $65 in the email and planned to invest in 30,000 BTC. Can you share your thoughts at that time with us? Dan Morehead: It goes back to March 2013. Two of my friends, Pete Briger (Co-CEO of Fortress) and Mike Novogratz (founder of Galaxy Digital), reached out to me to discuss Bitcoin. (We all came from Goldman Sachs, and they later founded Fortress Investment Group.) Actually, my brother had introduced Bitcoin to me before this, but I didn't pay much attention. A brief meeting with Pete and Mike unexpectedly turned into a four-hour in-depth discussion. The concept of Bitcoin opened my eyes. Later, I accepted Pete's invitation and worked in their office for a full six years. Bankless: You mentioned this is an asymmetric trading opportunity; can you explain that in detail? Dan Morehead: While doing macro trading at Tiger Management, I learned one thing: to look for opportunities where potential rewards far exceed risks. Although investing is always risky, the key is to find those potential targets that could yield massive returns. For instance, before investing in Bitcoin, we held Tesla stock. Interestingly, in 2013, the prices of Tesla and Bitcoin were quite similar. In the end, we made a bold decision – to sell all Tesla stock and go all-in on Bitcoin. Bankless: You mentioned Bitcoin as a 'serial killer'; what does that mean? Dan Morehead: In the tech field, we often use the term 'category killer' to describe those disruptive innovations. Bitcoin goes a step further; it's a 'serial killer' because it not only disrupts one domain but is set to reshape multiple industries. However, this process is gradual. For example, while blockchain technology has now shown advantages in certain areas, it may still take ten years to truly challenge payment giants like Visa and Mastercard. Just like the internet, which is now 50 years old, Bitcoin is still in its 'teenage' stage. Bankless: After experiencing so many years of market fluctuations, has your view on Bitcoin changed? Dan Morehead: Although Bitcoin has seen incredible price increases, I still believe it represents an asymmetric opportunity. We've experienced three significant drops of over 85%, yet each time it has reached new highs. It's hard to find such assets in traditional investment fields. This is also why I've focused almost all my energy on the crypto market since 2013. We are still in the early days of this financial revolution, and future opportunities are vast. Asymmetric Investment Opportunities Bankless: Between 2013 and 2015, you purchased 2% of the global Bitcoin supply. Many investors wish they could have bought Bitcoin earlier and hope to identify such asymmetric reward opportunities. How did you build this belief? Some might say it was just luck; what do you think? Dan Morehead: I agree with your use of the word 'pattern' because it is indeed a form of pattern recognition. I worked on Wall Street for 36 years, starting in 1987, experiencing the savings and loan crisis, the financial crisis, investing in commodities in the '80s, and emerging markets in the '90s. These experiences give me an advantage when investing in cryptocurrencies compared to younger investors because I feel I've seen similar situations before. Let me provide a few examples: I participated in the GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) at Goldman Sachs, and now commodities have become a recognized asset class. In the '90s, I invested in emerging markets, which are now also standard asset classes. In 2006-2007, Pantera launched the first investment in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (UAE and Saudi Arabia) from a Western fund. Many thought it was crazy at the time, but now the Middle East has become a completely normal investment destination. I went to Russia to invest during the Gorbachev era and participated in the privatization of the Russian gas industry. Bankless: So you've always been looking for these avant-garde investment opportunities? Dan Morehead: Yes, we've always been looking for non-mainstream or unconventional opportunities. In 2000, we even started a fund to invest in local farmland after Argentina's penultimate crisis. Speaking of blockchain, interestingly, it is still a frontier asset class. This is unusual – an asset with a market cap of $3 trillion is still regarded as a frontier asset; I've never seen anything like it. In investment memos I wrote later, I listed various application scenarios for blockchain: Competing with gold (this is happening) Competing with Visa and Mastercard in the future Competing with remittance companies that charge high fees to immigrants, while Bitcoin can easily and cost-effectively complete cross-border transfers. When you add all these use cases together, you find that the ultimate value of cryptocurrencies is far higher than today’s level. That's why we are so optimistic about this field. Experience of Buying Bitcoin in 2013 Bankless: Can you describe what it was like to purchase a large amount of Bitcoin in 2013? I remember that when I first bought cryptocurrency in 2014, I felt it was very unreliable to open accounts on multiple exchanges, and the websites looked very rudimentary. For many investors, these are reasons that deter them. How did you build confidence in such an environment? Dan Morehead: The trading environment back then was indeed very primitive. For example, platforms like localbitcoins.com required face-to-face transactions, which posed too much risk; we never considered that approach. Ironically, that was actually the most mainstream trading method at the time.

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