There are many uncertainties in the future trend of Bitcoin prices. The following is an analysis of different time dimensions:
Short-term trend
- Market sentiment impact: The recent sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, such as the decline from historical highs, have made investors cautious and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range. The game between the power of buyers and sellers will intensify price fluctuations.
- Technical adjustment needs: After Bitcoin has experienced rapid rises and falls, some technical indicators show overbought or oversold signals. It takes a certain amount of time to repair and adjust the technical aspects. It may fluctuate repeatedly between the current resistance and support levels.
Medium-term trend
- Halving cycle impact: Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April 2024. According to historical trends, the supply of Bitcoin will decrease after halving. If the demand remains unchanged or increases, the price will usually rise. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach the peak of this cycle in August 2025.
- Policy and regulatory risks: The regulatory policies of various countries on digital currencies are constantly changing. If some countries strengthen supervision and restrict Bitcoin transactions or related businesses, it may lead to a decline in market liquidity and suppress prices; on the contrary, if the policy environment is relatively loose, it may attract more capital inflows and drive prices up.
Long-term trend
- Macroeconomic factors: Macroeconomic factors such as global economic uncertainty, changes in monetary policy, and inflation have a profound impact on Bitcoin prices. In times of economic instability, Bitcoin, as a potential safe-haven asset, may attract more investors' attention and capital inflows.
- Market maturity and acceptance: As the cryptocurrency market matures, Bitcoin's market acceptance may further increase. More institutional investors and traditional financial institutions participating in it may provide long-term support for Bitcoin's price. However, this may also lead to intensified market competition, and the development of other cryptocurrencies may have a certain impact on Bitcoin's market share and price. $BTC #BTC上攻11万？